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The St Kilda Saints and Carlton Blues are heading across to Wellington, New Zealand on a quest to turn their 2015 fortunes around. Join The Roar for live scores and commentary from 11:10am (AEST).
Last year’s wooden spooners started the season in reasonable form, with a close loss to Greater Western Sydney and a convincing win over Gold Coast on the road, leading some to believe the rebuild at St Kilda may not take as long.
But the Saints received a huge reality check last week, after three completely uncompetitive quarters saw them suffer a 74-point demolition at the hands of Collingwood.
The Saints have used the ball extremely well for a young side so far, and thanks to the emerging Josh Bruce, are currently equal fifth in the competiton with 12 marks inside 50 per game.
But while they’ve used the ball well, the Saints have been unable to get first use of it. They average eight fewer clearances than their opponent per game, and as a result the club is currently second worst in the competition in allowing their opponents 60 inside 50s per match.
Better work from the inside midfielders is needed to ensure St Kilda’s young defenders aren’t under the pump.
It’s hard to remember an established senior coach being under so much pressure so early into the season, but just three weeks in and the Blues have been forced to publicly state that Michael Malthouse won’t be sacked mid-year.
The scoreboard claims that Carlton has only been smashed once this season, but all three of their losses this season have been comprehensive – and the stat sheet unreservedly agrees.
The Blues rank last for tackles per game (52) and as a direct result their opponents enjoy an effective disposal rate of 77.2 per cent – the second highest mark in the competition.
This poor showing off the ball would at least be partially excused if Carlton were using the ball well themselves, but they also rank equal last in the competition for disposals per game (327). The Blues’ midfielders are not exhibiting the talent nor effort required to be competitive at AFL level – and that needs to change immediately.
St Kilda would be massively buoyed by the potential returns of Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna, but the star duo are no certainties. The Saints could turn to ruckman Tom Hickey as an option up forward, but if Riewoldt doesn’t make the team then it looks like they’ll be stop-gapping up forward for another week.
Carlton have already lost Chris Yarran to suspension, but their defensive stocks could be depleted further with Michael Jamison in doubt with a shoulder injury. Strong VFL performances could see the Blues tempted to call up Jason Tutt, Mark Whiley or Robert Warnock, but if Riewoldt returns and Jamison misses there appears to be little they can do.
Prediction
It may not be the wooden spoon grand final, but both clubs will be looking at this match as a golden opportunity to pick up a rare win.
On paper, the Blues have more established talent, and their particularly poor start to the season has surprised even some of their naysayers.
But what matters in the AFL is not reputation, but form. St Kilda could very easily be 2-1 at this point in time, but Carlton are yet to show match-winning form in 2015.
Saints by 8 points.