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Super Rugby is well and truly on the homeward stretch, and this column was always coming. It’s time to plot the run home for teams, and in some cases, it’s time for the red pen to come out, too.
But first, the working assumptions.
Eleven wins will be what teams will truly need to qualify for the playoffs in 2015. And I mean that’s what will be needed to be properly secure within the top six, even though the history of the conference format shows that ten wins can also get you there.
Of the 24 finalists in the four previous years of the six-team playoffs format, 13 of them qualified with 11 or more wins, and indeed, in all four years 11 wins has topped a conference.
Of the remaining 11 finalists, nine of them qualified with ten wins.
Last season, the Chiefs and Highlanders snuck in with eight wins, though the Chiefs had two draws as well, and the Highlanders had an equal competition-high ten bonus points.
Therefore, in four years, 22 of the 24 finalists have required at least ten wins. However, ten wins has also seen teams miss out, and this is the main reason why I think 11 wins is really the required target.
The Bulls in 2011 and both the Brumbies and Hurricanes in 2012 all missed the playoffs despite registering ten wins. The Brumbies famously took their foot off the gas on the last day of the 2012 regular season, losing to the Blues by 14 points when even just a losing bonus point would’ve been enough to take the Australian conference.
Who can’t
Straight up, we can put the red pen through the Lions, Rebels and Sharks.
Lions (played 10, 6 wins, 26 points): (HOME/Away games remaining) Bulls, HIGHLANDERS, BRUMBIES, Cheetahs, WARATAHS, Stormers, BYE.
Sharks (played 10, 4 wins, 21 points): Highlanders, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Reds, REBELS, BYE, STORMERS.
Rebels (played 9, 4 wins, 20 points): CHIEFS, BLUES, Reds, Stormers, Sharks, BULLS, FORCE.
None of these three teams can get to ten wins, looking through my crystal ball, though the Lions will get the closest. Looking ahead, I think the Lions can win three of their coming seven games: the Highlanders at Ellis Park, the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein, and then the Waratahs in Johannesburg on the first game of their African tour.
The Sharks are about to embark on their trans-Tasman tour, and I don’t think they’ll win a game. In fact, the Rebels back in Durban on their return shapes the only game in the last seven rounds I see them winning. They also have the bye in the penultimate round, and on current Sharks form, it will fancy its chances.
The Rebels can win three more games, I think, being those against the Blues, Reds, and the Force. There are several other games on their run home that they’re certainly capable of winning, and I genuinely hope they do. It would cap off what will be their best season ever.
And here’s the possibly controversial bit: I think the Crusaders will miss out too.
Crusaders (played 10, 5 wins, 25 points): Hurricanes, REDS, BYE, Waratahs, HURRICANES, Blues, Brumbies.
In the up-and-down that the Crusaders currently find themselves, I think they will only win three more games: the Reds and Hurricanes in Christchurch, and the Blues away.
The away games against the Hurricanes this weekend coming, and the Waratahs and Brumbies later, look like real danger games for this Crusaders side. In years gone by, they might’ve won five and even all six of their remaining games, but this current side is short of that level of prediction confidence.
Who can
I think seven teams can get to ten wins, but obviously seven doesn’t go into six. So, seven rounds out, this is how I see the run home playing out for the top teams.
Hurricanes (played 9, 8 wins, 38 points): CRUSADERS, SHARKS, CHIEFS, Blues, Crusaders, HIGHLANDERS, Chiefs.
No problems here. I think the ‘Canes can win five of those remaining seven games, and with bonus points in most if not all. Only the away games against the Crusaders and Chiefs look like banana skins. New Zealand conference champions.
Waratahs (played 9, 6 wins, 27 points): Brumbies, Force, SHARKS, CRUSADERS, Lions, Cheetahs, REDS.
It starts with a tough game in Canberra this weekend, but I think the ‘Tahs are about to go on a big roll from here. The first game in South Africa, against the Lions, is the only game I think they might trip up, and they’ll take out the Australian conference by one or two wins.
Stormers (played 10, 7 wins, 30 points): Cheetahs, BRUMBIES, BYE, REBELS, CHEETAHS, LIONS, Sharks.
The only team who I think will go unbeaten over the last seven rounds, courtesy of a bye and six very winnable games. They do only have two bonus points currently, and I’m not sure they’ll get more than three more bonus points on the run home, but I can see them finishing with the Hurricanes on 13 wins. And bonus points will determine whether they finish in front of or behind the Waratahs, on account of their very similar points differentials. South African conference winners.
Chiefs (played 10, 8 wins, 37 points): Rebels, BYE, Hurricanes, BULLS, Highlanders, Reds, HURRICANES.
They’ll finish with more points than two, and more wins than one of the conference leaders, but the Chiefs look destined to finish fourth, for mine. I think they can take bonus points in all six of their remaining games, with away games against the Hurricanes and Highlanders being the hurdles along the way. They showed on the weekend that they won’t necessarily miss Aaron Cruden, and I’m counting on that to remain the case.
Highlanders (played 9, 6 wins, 28 points): SHARKS, Lions, Cheetahs, Force, CHIEFS, Hurricanes, Blues.
Last year’s under-the-radar flyers look all set to do it again, but this year they’ll reach the playoff with three more wins and maybe even more bonus points than last season. The away games against the Lions and Hurricanes look the trickiest, while a home win over the Chiefs will remind everyone that they’re serious.
Brumbies (played 10, 6 wins, 31 points): WARATAHS, Stormers, Lions, BYE, BULLS, Force, CRUSADERS.
A lot’s been said about Friday night’s upcoming game against the Waratahs being season and conference-defining, but I actually think it will be the Stormers in Cape Town the following round that brings the Brumbies undone properly. Either way, I’m not convinced that they can win either game, despite how impressive they were at set piece last week. A last round win at home over the Crusaders and bonus points along the way should keep them in front of the Bulls for sixth place.
Bulls (played 10, 6 wins, 29 points): LIONS, BYE, Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies, Rebels, CHEETAHS.
Only one team has botched a favourable draw more than the Sharks this season, and that’s the Bulls. Even beating the Lions at home this weekend, I expected them to do a lot better than seven wins before finally leaving the Republic. And the middle fortnight of their tour – the Chiefs and Brumbies – loom as tough games. They can reach ten wins, but I think they’ll be the team to miss out.
My top six
Hurricanes (NZ), Waratahs (Aus), Stormers (RSA), Chiefs, Highlanders, Brumbies.
Let’s see how close to the mark – or otherwise – I end up.