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The Australian conference is once again dominated by two sides, the Brumbies and the Waratahs, while the Rebels have shown improvement and the Force have taken a huge step backwards.
The Reds remain a woeful shadow of the Ewen McKenzie coached sides of a few years back and would be arguably the worst side in the Super Rugby.
Leading the way are the Brumbies on 31 points. They are a side that have run hot and cold at times this season. They hold a slender lead over the Waratahs, who have a game in hand, and also they have yet to venture to South Africa. Close losses to the Chiefs and Blues in New Zealand mean they are zero from two abroad this year and they have the Stormers and Lions away which should provide a decent challenge.
Before that they have to overcome the Waratahs at home. A win there will give them a nice little buffer but a loss will likely see the Waratahs leapfrog them. It could well be the game that decides the conference winner this far out.
With the Waratahs, Crusaders and Bulls at home and the Force, Lions and Stormers away they have a tough run home and none of them look easy. The key game though should be the Waratahs and a loss there could see them struggle to stay in the top six.
Camped just outside the top six on 27 points are the Waratahs. They have had an up and down season with shock losses to the Force and Stormers at home and they were belted by the Highlanders away. A win over the Hurricanes seemed to get them back on track but with their run home they will need to get their consistency back.
They play a crucial game against the Brumbies this week in Canberra which could well decide the Australian conference. A loss will see them slip seven or eight points behind the Brumbies, although they do have a game in hand over them.
They play the Sharks, Reds and Crusaders at home and the Lions, Cheetahs, Force and Brumbies away. Only one of those sides are in the top six and it is an easier run home than the Brumbies. They should make the top six but if they throw in a few shockers like they have this season then life could get harder.
Having their best season yet sits the Rebels on 20 points. They are a real rough prospect for a top six spot and they are a much improved outfit, especially on the defensive front and in their brilliant scrimmage work.
Like the Waratahs they also have seven matches left. They have the Chiefs, Blues, Force and Bulls at home and the Reds, Stormers and Sharks away. Aside from the Chiefs and Stormers, it’s a nice run home and if they could sneak a win over the Chiefs this week and the Waratahs get up then they will be right in the mix for taking the Australian conference.
The Reds are next on 11 points. They have looked woeful this year, conceding the second most points and scoring the least. They average 13 points a game while conceding 26. They only escaped last spot due to a missed kick in the final minute by the Cheetahs.
They play the Rebels, Sharks and Chiefs at home and the Waratahs, Crusaders and Force away. They will be lucky to pick up a win in any of these contests, with the Sharks at home or Force away their best chance. They are looking a strong prospect for the wooden spoon.
The Force sit last on the table. After the opening round and their demolition of the Waratahs in Sydney I doubt even the biggest sceptic would have foreseen them being in last spot but that shock Round 1 victory remains their only win of a very ordinary campaign.
They have been showing a lot more spirit of late, pushing the Chiefs and Stormers close, and a win looks like it’s just around the corner. They have the Brumbies, Reds, Highlanders and Waratahs at home and the Rebels and Blues away. At the very least they should roll the Reds but they might snag an upset or two at home still.
The usual prospects dominate this conference and provided the Brumbies and Waratahs can go through their South Africa tours without too much damage they look like top six prospects. The conference winner is too close to call, although a much clearer picture should emerge after this week. The Rebels are a rough chance should these two falter given the relatively easier draw they have.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.