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2015 William Hill Classic (Robert Sangster Stakes): A historical perspective

Roar Guru
30th April, 2015
2

This race is a Group 1 fillies and mares race at weight-for-age level run at Morphettville racecourse in Adelaide. Since its inception in 1983 it has changed names on numerous occasions.

For the first 21 years it was known as the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, which Robert Sangster owned.

Following his death in 2004 the race was named in his honour, and attained Group 1 status (it was Group 2) until 2009 when it became the Sportingbet Classic (so much for tradition).

William Hill took over Sportingbet a year or so ago and the race became the William Hill Classic.

Once again we have a race with an honour roll that impresses, the most notable of which are Black Caviar and Alinghi.

High quality mares with a high strike rate and/or consistent career record often win. Platelet, Universal Queen, Ellicorsam and Our Egyptian Reine are ample proof of that being the case.

Below are the last 12 winners of the event with age, gender (filly or mare) and barrier draw in brackets.

• 2014 DRIEFONTEIN 4m (10)
• 2013 PLATELET 4m (11)
• 2012 BLACK CAVIAR 5m (3)
• 2011 RESPONSE 4m (9)
• 2010 ROSTOVA 3f (14)
• 2009 BEL MER 4m (13)
• 2008 JUSTE MOMENTE 4m (13)
• 2007 UNIVERSAL QUEEN 3f (10)
• 2006 ELLICORSAM 5m (6)
• 2005 ALINGHI 3f (9)
• 2004 FRENCH BID 3f (11)
• 2003 OUR EGYPTIAN REINE 4m (13)

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The most relevant historical statistics are weighted, and collated in the table below.

A) 10/12 drew barrier 9 or wider- 3 points
B) 10/12 were aged either 3 or 4- 3 points
C) 8/12 Finished in first or second place last start- 3 points
D) 12/12 ran in a Group or Listed race last start- 2 points
6/12 ran in a Group 1 race “ “ – 1 point
E) 10/12 raced between 1000m and 1200m at their last start- 2 points
F) 9/12 raced against all sexes at previous start- 2 points
G) 12/12 raced on a left handed (anti-clockwise) track last start- 2 points
H) 6/12 either led or were in second place in the early stages of this race- 2 points
I) 8/12 started $8 or less – 2 points.

HORSE

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

TOTAL

1. Miracles Of Life

3

3

2

2

2

12

2. Magnifisio

2

2

2

2

2

10

3. Platelet

2

2

2

2

8

4. Avoid Lightning

3

3

2

2

2

12

5. Vain Queen

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

2

18

6. Gregers

3

2

2

2

2

2

13

7. Politeness

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

19

8. Tycoon Tara

3

3

2

2

2

2

14

9. Runway Star

3

2

2

2

2

11

10. I Love It

3

3

2

2

2

12

11. Text’N Hurley

3

2

2

7

12. Miss Steele

3

3

2

2

10

13. Scarlet Billows

3

3

2

2

2

2

14

14. Fine Approach

3

3

3

2

2

13

15. Natural Disaster

2

2

4

16. Sabatini

3

3

2

2

2

2

14

17. Wawail

3

2

2

2

9

Clearly the top two historically rated runners are Vain Queen and Politeness. Current betting markets have only three horses at $8 or under with Politeness at $9. As a result I have awarded Politeness one point (column I) just in case it does firm in price. It doesn’t appear that any other horse will end up less than an $8.

I have also awarded Vain Queen one point (out of two) in column H for her ability to race on the pace. It would seem a little unlikely she can sit one to two from a wide barrier, but she was in third place early last start in a higher class race, from an awkward barrier. Whatever the case, on both counts these two mares have the best historical statistics for the race. But can we separate them with some a bit more analysis?

Vain Queen
Has a 50 per cent winning career strike rate and comes out of two consecutive Group 1 races against male horses, beaten less than two lengths in both. She is two from two when third up in her preparations, as is the case here. With this break between runs (36 days) she is ½ and that win was a dominant one at Group 3 level at the end of her last preparation down the straight at Flemington.

While her best form is on Dead tracks (4/5) her last two wins have been on good track by 4 lengths and 3.5 lengths respectively. She has won on all conditions bar heavy. It’s hard to find a negative, with the possible exception that her last two wins have been at Flemington and down the straight, whereas this race is on a cornered track.

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Politeness
In contrast, Politeness comes from weaker races and her winning strike rate is nearly half that of Vain Queen. Last start she received four kilograms from Gregers and beat her home by nearly two lengths. She meets that mare four kilograms worse in this. Third up she is 1-1/4, and is 2-1/8 with less than 15 days between runs, as is the case here.

She has travelled interstate before though, with success at her first start in Sydney, whereas Vain Queen is yet to travel out of Victoria. The win in Sydney was at Randwick on a heavy surface, so she might have the edge if it happened to rain heavily in the next couple of days. That seems highly unlikely looking at the weather forecast.

Of the two I would have to settle with Vain Queen as the on top selection. She has the same weight as Politeness, and would almost certainly be conceding two to three kilograms in weight to that mare if this was a handicap race.

Miracles Of Life and Avoid Lightning return home to Adelaide as better credentialled mares and deserve a lot of respect. The former has Group class form against male horses, while the latter might be better against her own sex. She finished 3.8 lengths off Miracle Of Life in the Galaxy at Randwick with one kilogram less weight.

Don’t ignore the Western Australia mare Magnifisio either. She was unlucky to strike a wet track at her first start in Adelaide, and could improve greatly on an expected firm surface.

Predictions
1. Vain Queen
2. Politeness
3. Miracles of Life

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