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Friday Night Forecast: The Pies will rain on Mick's parade

Expert
30th April, 2015
19

The Blues host the Magpies this week in a game which sees coach Mick Malthouse break one of the longest-standing records in the AFL.

Ok now we’re getting somewhere with these Friday night match ups.

These are two sides that are not likely to make the eight when all said and done, although I will say the Pies have started the year better than I thought they would.

First up, how did we go with last week’s forecast?

Prediction: Richmond def. Melbourne by 18 points
Actual: Richmond def. by Melbourne by 32 points

Could I have been more wrong? Perhaps, but missing the victor and the margin by more than two goals is a fairly significant miss. That’s what you get when you back Richmond on the big stage. I threw a whole bunch of caveats on my pick, but still expected the Tigers to get the job done.

Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues
Friday, 1 May
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
MCG, Melbourne, Victoria

A Sandilands of column inches have been written about Mick Malthouse and the significance of his breaking of Jock McHale’s games coached record of 715 games this week.

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So let’s not cover that ground.

One stat I’ll throw into the mix that I haven’t seen quoted elsewhere is how Mick has fared against his old teams over the journey. Since joining West Coast in 1990 – which was the first opportunity he has had to coach against a side that he previously coached – Malthouse has won 57 per cent of games against the side he last coached, compared to 59 per cent of other games.

What does that mean? Probably nothing.

Anyway…

On the field, this one looks to be a relatively easy call for Collingwood, given the form to date of both sides.

The Pies were brutal in their assault of Essendon last weekend, applying crazy levels of pressure and cramping the Dons for space. Collingwood lost the possession count in that game by almost 100, but still managed to get over the line by a few kicks. It’s because they didn’t let Essendon do anything with the ball.

Now that’s a problem for the Blues. Carlton, under Mick, have played a very conservative, use-the-wing attacking style. And as I wrote in my column earlier this week, the Blues are doing all they can to get an extra man at the contest. This works against sides like Essendon, who would rather beat you on the outside with precision kicking and hard work.

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It will not work against the Pies. Collingwood are ranked number one in the AFL for contested possessions per game (164.5), and have seen the second highest share of possessions in games they’ve played as the contested variety (42.8 per cent, behind Melbourne at 46.2 per cent). Nathan Buckley knows his side’s limitations, and is matching his strategy to suit it.

It’ll be close – high contested possession games generally are – but I predict Bucks will rain on his mentor’s parade, as Collingwood win the day by 24 points.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?

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