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We are set for a classic Ashes series in England. While it almost certainly won’t be as lofty in standard as the epic 2005 contest, I think it may well be just as closely fought.
We won’t have Shane Warne conjuring the paranormal, Andrew Flintoff ascending to deity status or, probably, the inimitable Kevin Pietersen unfurling bold strokes.
We won’t have Glenn McGrath treading on a ball and bruising Australian hearts along with his ankle. We won’t have an irate Ricky Ponting fuming at a smug-faced Duncan Fletcher after being run out by a substitute.
We won’t have Michael Kasprowicz getting caught off a glove not in contact with the bat handle, gifting England a two-run win and, ultimately, reclamation of The Urn.
What we will have is Mitchell Johnson hunting heads. What we will have is David Warner trying to impose himself on England’s all-time wicket taker James Anderson. What we will have is prolific young Englishmen Joe Root and Gary Ballance getting the chance to prove they are as good as their stats suggest.
What we will have is an Australian team with a woeful overseas record hell bent on winning in England for the first time in 14 years. What we will have is an England line-up sporting grisly Ashes scars desperate to earn back the respect of the cricketing world.
What we will have is a close series. Why?
Because Australia are a far better team now than when they last graced English turf two years ago. Because England are a lesser side than the one which eclipsed the tourists 3-0 in that series.
Because Australia are the superior line-up but come to the field in foreign climes. Because England are the weaker line-up but flourish at home.
This isn’t just wishful thinking by a cricket tragic whose senses are inflamed at the thought of a Day 5, fifth Test series result.
Unless England play to their peak, with Anderson swerving the ball like a UFO, Moeen Ali blossoming into a match-winning spinner, and Root and Alastair Cook churning out tons, they will not dominate Australia.
Unless Australia play to their peak, with Johnson brutalising stumps, Ryan Harris investing in nicks, and Warner and Steve Smith hoarding boundaries, they will not dominate England.
To me, the most likely scenario is that each side will be somewhere below their best. Both have significant weaknesses.
Australia have only three batsmen who are both secure in their places and in good Test form – Warner, Smith and veteran opener Chris Rogers.
They have no clarity about who should bat number three. They have a skipper who made a ton in his last Test but has been famine or feast for the past 18 months as his degenerative back condition has plagued him.
They have an unproven all-rounder in Mitchell Marsh and a proven all-rounder in Watson – as in, proven to be well past his zenith.
They have a wicketkeeper who seemingly is only in the side on the back of good will and leadership qualities, his batting returns having been paltry for 18 months. They have enormous ability, as a unit, but often fail to adapt to alien conditions.
England, meanwhile, have no frontline spinner and no decent fourth bowling option.
They have a fresh opener Jonathan Trott who is not only burdened by the heavy spotlight of a comeback from mental health problems, but is attempting to adapt to a new, more difficult batting position.
They have a skipper in Cook whose captaincy is more wooden than the facial expressions of Hollywood matriarchs, whose batting is as stilted as a Queenslander house. They have their leading runscorer Joe Root set to face a bowling attack which in the past made him resemble a park cricketer.
They have a new ball attack in James Anderson and Stuart Broad which is lethal on its day, but whose ‘days’ are becoming fewer and further between.
They have uncertainty surrounding who is best to lead their side, both on and off the pitch. What England do have is a massive home advantage. They have the luxury of made-to-order pitches, and the comparative mastery of the Dukes ball.
Combined, these two elements are enough to draw them level with Australia in my reckoning. It is a series which, right now, is too close to call.
By virtue of only needing a series draw to retain the Ashes, Australia are favourites in that regard. But as for who is more likely to win the series, it is a toss of the coin.
Australian gun Steve Smith was quoted this week as saying England wouldn’t “come close” to beating his side in the Ashes.
What was overlooked amid the subsequent bold headlines and fierce debate here and in the UK, is that he qualified that statement with “if”.
“If we continue to play the same way we’ve played over the last 12-18 months, I don’t think they’ll come close to us to be honest,” he told Cricinfo.
Right he is. “If” Australia play as well as they did in the last Ashes or during their 2-1 upset of the Proteas in South Africa, they will register a comfortable series win.
But those stunning results were, to a significant degree, a byproduct of Johnson producing a spell of form arguably as astonishing as any in Test bowling history. He hasn’t been even two-thirds as effective since.
While attempting to reclaim such elusive touch, Johnson will have to overcome mental demons associated with his difficult-to-watch failures on the 2009 tour.
This mental obstacle will be at play for many, if not all of the Australians. England, of course, will be under at least as much pressure in front of home crowds and in the crosshairs of the tabloid press.
It promises to be a grand spectacle, perhaps not up there with the greatest Ashes series of all time but quite possibly among the closest.