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There and back again: Revisiting my predictions after Round 5

Roar Guru
3rd May, 2015
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The scientific art of throwing a bunch of estimates of who was going to win or lose saw me predict the end of Round 5 ladder which you can read.

And in that article, I stated that I would revisit it come the start of May, and look at what I got right, and what I didn’t. Bearing in mind, if I tipped these perfectly, I would have been really chuffed.

What I got right
The term “not much” springs to mind here. Of all of my predictions, none of them have hit exactly on the mark. Some of them I was close, but if I was a pilot, I wouldn’t be basing my career on being close. Might explain why I am doing so badly at the footy tipping comp this season.

What I could scrape a pass mark for
Drawing a longer bow here, there are some positives that I can take out of my predictions. North Melbourne sitting outside the eight with two wins, and St Kilda only picking up one win is also a tick in the box.

Port Adelaide has three wins, as I predicted, but don’t occupy the ladder position I expected for them, but I’ll take what I can get. Hawthorn and Fremantle in the top four was a gimmie, but I will take that as well.

What I got wrong
I could write my entire article under this heading alone. I had Sydney and Hawthorn populating my top two, and thought Freo might be on the slide.

Ross Lyon, however, decided that ‘almost’ winning a premiership by having opponents score less than them isn’t enough and has added some much-needed goal scoring grunt into the side to have them sitting undefeated from five starts.

Richmond is outside the eight, to which the club and fans must be disappointed with given their draw has given them a softer start to the season.

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Collingwood are in the eight as I tipped, but higher than I expected, currently holding onto second spot. Adelaide Crows came out of the gates quickly, and are four spots higher than I gave them credit for in the pre-season.

I had Carlton missing the top eight, but didn’t expect them to fall as fair as they did, with their sole win coming against the Saints, who everyone expected not to do much this season.

What I got really wrong
Yep, felt the need for a special category for these mistakes. Firstly, GWS and Western Bulldogs fans, I owe you an apology. I had them both pegged top of the bottom four teams.

End of Round 4, GWS are sitting second. They have since dropped to eighth but look like a side that should push for maiden finals berth.

The Western Bulldogs are one of the form teams of the competition at the moment, and rightly deserve their place in the top four. They are playing an exciting brand of football, and I hope they can maintain this form throughout the season.

On the other hand is the Gold Coast, who without G Ablett has gone from bad to worse. I had them at the lofty heights inside the top four, not 12 spots lower just beating out St Kilda and Carlton.

For those playing along at home, if you count every position change I was wrong, it totals out at 98 positions up and down the ladder. Any cricketer would be happy with that knock, but it shows the imperfect science that pseudo-randomly generating results based on pre-season form and drafting can provide.

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So Roarers, what predictions that you got right or wrong do you want to share in the comments below? I may write another predictions article later in the week having a crack at the end of the bye rounds.

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