Fresh from making a fool of myself in predicting the Round 5 ladder, I figured the best thing to do would be to get back on the keyboard and try again.
So here are my predictions for how the AFL ladder will look at the end of Round 10.
The difference this time is I’m not going to be making the bold statements of naming the exact 18 positions. To try and save face, I am going to be a little vaguer but still put my neck on the chopping block.
Prediction 1
Of the current bottom four, only one team will escape it at the end of Round 10. Which team it will be is hard to say, my modeling suggests St Kilda or the Gold Coast might be the teams to escape. I would even go as far to say that Brisbane and Carlton will still be occupying the bottom four at the end of Round 10.
Prediction 2
Of the current top four, only one team will fall out by the end of Round 10. This time I will go all for broke, and say the top four will be Fremantle, Collingwood, Hawthorn and Port Adelaide. Sorry Bulldogs fans, but I think Port Adelaide and Hawthorn will squeeze the Dogs out of the top four for now.
Prediction 3
Fremantle will stay undefeated. Away games against Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and Adelaide Crows are not easy assignments but I think they can hold on and get the points. Conversely, they host North Melbourne and Richmond, which also aren’t the easiest assignments. But if you have experts throwing around the premiership favourite tag, you expect them to pick up the points in all five of those games.
Prediction 4
Greater Western Sydney and West Coast won’t be in the top eight at the end of Round 10. They both played each other in Round 5 with West Coast easily accounting for the Giants and inflating their percentage. In the coming five weeks, West Coast have Port Adelaide in South Australia and North Melbourne in Tasmania. While GWS have Hawthorn, Adelaide Crows and Western Bulldogs, which will all be tough assignments.
Prediction 5
St Kilda will beat Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 9. The one bold declaration of the Saints fan. St Kilda are showing signs of being competitive, but based on current form it’s more that I think Brisbane don’t know how to win at the moment. The follow-on prediction is that I’m tipping Brisbane to still be sitting on zero at the end of Round 10.
Prediction 6
No coaches will be sacked yet, but the rumours will be there. Mick Malthouse, Damien Hardwick and Justin Leppitsch all won’t be sleeping easy at night based on their current season form of their respective teams. However, I am predicting that the axe won’t be falling on anybody this early in the season.
So there you go Roarers, what do you think? Do you think I’ve learnt from my mistakes, or am I destined for failure?
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