The Roar
The Roar

Advertisement

Rugby tactics: Winning the ball versus winning the game

5th May, 2015
Advertisement
The Hurricanes return to the scene of their 2015 semi-final triumph, against the Waratahs. (Source: AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Guru
5th May, 2015
40
1508 Reads

Winning the contest for possession whether you’re playing rugby, AFL, NFL or any other football code is one of the basic rules teams follow to ensure victory.

Trawl through any post-game report or sporting blog and there will be a variety of statistical measures used to illustrate why a team won or lost. The most commonly referenced statistic is possession.

When Graham Henry coached the All Blacks, it was the first time Kiwi fans saw Dan Carter regularly kick the ball to the opposition and not into touch. At the time there was a general lack of understanding from fans and journalists about this change in strategy as it went against habits ingrained since childhood – keep possession of the ball or kick it out.

Starting with the All Blacks – but certainly not ending with them) – there emerged an increasing number of games where traditional metrics were turned on their heads. The team dominating possession and territory statistics were not often assured of victory.

Teams that had the greater attacking and counter-attacking ability had a higher conversion rate of opportunities into points than those teams who were better equipped to win the ball but weren’t using it effectively.

The All Blacks from 2005-2007 were masters at blowing teams apart during a 20-minute scoring burst that took the game beyond the opposition’s reach. But they would often trail well behind in possession and territory stakes.

The Super Rugby Reds team of 2011 were a similarly moulded side in that their pack never dominated the forward exchanges but they competed vigorously to lay a platform for Quade Cooper and Will Genia to conjure their tricks.

Watching the Crusaders versus Hurricanes match last weekend reminded me of the contradiction in these terms.

Advertisement

The Crusaders played one of their best games of the season. They had more than enough ball to apply pressure but conceded four tries (with a further two ruled out by the TMO) to lose the game.

Critics and sceptics will point to the Hurricanes’ malfunctioning lineout, additional tackles made, higher turnovers and penalties conceded and fewer rucks and mauls won in comparison to the Crusaders as systemic flaws that can’t sustain victories the deeper they progress into the season.

Supporters will point to the significant difference between the two teams in their effectiveness of utilising that possession. The Hurricanes carried and passed the ball fewer times than the Crusaders but made three times as many clean breaks, progressed 300 more metres, scored four tries and most importantly missed fewer tackles. All this with one of their best players in the sin bin for ten minutes.

It was an identical story between the Highlanders and the Sharks. The Sharks had more possession, carried it more times, won more rucks and mauls and forced the Highlanders into making more tackles.

However, in comparison, the Highlanders, with less possession, made four times as many clean breaks, progressed the ball 150 metres more, missed fewer tackles and scored more tries.

Analysing the statistics from the Hurricanes’ single defeat against the Waratahs tells a story that flies in the face of this evaluation.

The Hurricanes had the better of the possession and territory stakes and used it effectively. They passed and ran more times, ran further metres, won more lineouts, scrums and rucks, missed fewer tackles and also scored four tries. The difference on this occasion was two-fold.

Advertisement

Yet their goal kicking was less accurate and they missed more scoring opportunities. While they missed fewer tackles the effectiveness of those tackles in stopping the Waratahs forwards on or behind the advantage line was poor. This was critical as it enabled the Waratahs to gather momentum, convert their few opportunities and win the game.

The Hurricanes and Highlanders are almost clones of each other and, interestingly, when they clashed earlier in the season there was only a five per cent or less margin of difference between them across all statistics. That isn’t surprising given the similarity in both teams’ approach to the game and their relative strengths.

My observations of the New Zealand Conference is that the better attacking sides are rewarded for their approach. While they’re not winning the ball as well as the opposition a combination of their evasive running, try-scoring abilities and strong defence is overcoming that shortcoming.

When their defence is inaccurate or ineffective, they’re unable to impose their strengths on the game and make headway against scoring deficits.

close