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BTC Cup (Doomben) 2015: An historical perspective

Morphetville takes centre stage this weekend. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
7th May, 2015
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This race is a key lead up to the more revered Doomben 1000 in two weeks’ time. Like that race it has Group 1 status (and is a weight for age race), though it was only awarded that in 2006.

In the last six years Black Caviar is the only horse to have won the race at odds of less than $7.50, and four of those six editions have been won by double-figure chances.

Below are the last 12 winners of the race followed by age, gender, barrier draw and starting odds;

• 2014 FAMOUS SEAMUS 5g (4) $21
• 2013 YOUR SONG 3c (5) $12
• 2012 SEA SIREN 3f (5) $7.50
• 2011 BLACK CAVIAR 4m (4) $1.05
• 2010 ALBERT THE FAT 5g (3) $21
• 2009 DUPORTH 3c (6) $13
• 2008 APACHE CAT 5g (4) $1.70
• 2007 BENTLEY BISCUIT 5g (5) $3.25
• 2006 GEE I JANE 5m (1) $12
• 2005 SPARK OF LIFE 4g (13) $3.75
• 2004 THORN PARK 4h (6) $4.50
• 2003 FALVELON 6h (2) $3

Relevant statistics – weighted and totalled in the table below;
A) 11/12 winners aged three to five (3 points)
B) 11/12 started from barriers 1-6 (1 point) 8/12 from barriers 4-6 (+2 points)
C) 9/12 finished in the placings last start (2 Points)
D) 12/12 raced in a Group 1 or 2 race last start. (2 points)
8/12 raced in Group 1 race last start. ( + 1 point)
E) 8/12 had 28 days or more between runs. (2 Points)
F) 8/12 raced in first 5 early stages of the race. (2 points)
G) 10/12 started in an 1100m or 1200m race last start. (2 points)
H) 8/12 had their last start in Sydney. (1 Point)

HORSE A B C D E F G H TOTAL
1. Temple Of Boom 3 3 2 8
2. Trust In A Gust 3 1 2 2 2 10
3. Fontelina 1 2 2 1 6
4. Hot Snitzel 1 2 2 2 2 1 10
5. Big Money 3 2 2 1 8
6. Sacred Star 3 2 3 2 10
7. Knoydart 3 2 2 1 8
8. Our Boy Malachi 2 2 2 1 7
9. El Roca 3 3 2 2 1 11
10. Cape Kidnappers 3 2 2 2 9
11. Scissor Kick 3 3 3 2 1 12
12. Time For War 3 2 2 2 1 10
13. Nostradamus 3 2 2 1 8
14. Villa Verde 3 2 1 2 8
15. Srikandi 3 2 2 2 2 11
16. Bring Me The Maid 3 2 1 2 8

Race Tempo
I have given a few horses the benefit of the doubt here (Column F) in regard to field position early – Trust In A Gust, Fontelina (seems to have lost his early speed), and Scissor Kick. All have drawn inside barriers, while three of the main speed runners, El Roca, Time For War and Srikandi have drawn quite wide.

That factor could mean that we will see a better than average speed, and midfield/backmarker types may be suited. Given that two points might be a bit generous, but this is Doomben, and on pacers do have a good record here.

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Analysis
This is an almost impossible race to assess, and the best way to approach it is from a value perspective.

The average winning price over the last 12 years is $8.65, and it would be even higher if the likes of Black Caviar and Apache Cat hadn’t won at odds on. We don’t have anything in the race at odds as short as that this year, so I’d be looking for those runners at $8.50 or better that score 10 points or better in the above table.

TRUST IN A GUST
This is his first start on a right handed track. He was slightly disappointing first up when weights suited him at Caulfield. He is unproven at WFA level but never runs a bad race. Might be looking for more distance but it’s hard to completely discount his chances. $8.50, his price, is about the average for winners of this race over the last 12 years.

HOT SNITZEL
Has been a very hard horse to follow, but he has his first run for the Snowden stable here, and he comes off an almost career best run last start. This is his best distance and he has actually got more historical factors going for him than any other horse in the race. Weight for age is a query for him though as he hasn’t looked quite capable of handling it to date, and he is a better horse on a wet track, which he probably won’t get for this race.

Intriguing to see what the Snowden team can do with him, and they are very apt at improving the form of tried horses (e.g. Miracles Of Life). At $34 he seems way overpriced.

SACRED STAR
Comes off two devastating Group 1 wins in New Zealand after a pretty disappointing Spring campaign over there. He came here last Winter and scored an impressive first-up win in the QTC Cup at Eagle Farm. He then seemed very unlucky not to win the Stradbroke, when connections chose the wrong option of settling back from a wide barrier. If he repeats his win of two starts back in New Zealand in sensational time he is going to take a lot of beating in this, and he should get the right sort of run from a midfield position. Definitely a top-three chance and he is double figure odds and better.

EL ROCA
Resumes from a long injury layoff, and is being set for the Doomben 10000 and Stradbroke. Reports are he is open to plenty of improvement fitness wise, and the wide barrier is going to make things difficult because he might not have the speed to get cover. At his best he would go close, but not sure this is his race.

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SCISSOR KICK
He ran a very good race in the All Aged Stakes when his preparation was less than ideal off a 56 day break. He was only beaten a length, and he might have been better served toward the centre of the track, rather than the inside where he ended up. Back to 1200m doesn’t seem ideal, but it is his best distance statistically, and he has an exceptional record from inside barriers. He isn’t a horse that has had the best of luck at times but it might be his turn now.

TIME FOR WAR
A very capable horse, having beaten Newmarket winner Brazen Beau here last Winter at this distance. He hasn’t won since in five starts though and Nostradamus was a bit too good for him last time. He has drawn wide and wil attempt to lead in all probability. With other speed in the race that might make things tough for him.

Conclusion
I am keen on the prospects of Sacred Star here given what he did last Winter, and particularly in New Zealand recently. I prefer him to Scissor Kick, who has had a bit of an interrupted preparation this Autumn. I’m not overly taken with the other top raters, but Hot Snitzel could be one at big odds for multis.

Although Our Boy Malachi doesn’t score well historically, he still rates as the one to beat. It’s hard to knock a horse with a career record that reads 17-1/19. And he is 4/4 at the distance and 4/4 with this kind of break between runs (21 days). This is his acid test class-wise, but he does everything right in his races, and will start a popular favourite. Prepare for a big roar if he hits the line first, being a popular Queenslander returning to his home turf. He is being prepared for the big two sprint races over the carnival (10000 and Stradbroke), but he is a bit of a query over the distance of both, so this race might be a better fit.

Srikandi is equal top historically rated and deserves to be close to favouritism after winning six of her last seven starts. She managed to win when resuming off almost a year off recently, and is a bigger, stronger mare now. She should take a lot of improvement from the run, and although drawn a touch awkwardly here she is the type of horse that will make her own luck.

Both she and Our Boy Malachi are musts for multiple takers.

Selections
1. SACRED STAR
2. SCISSOR KICK
3. OUR BOY MALACHI
4. SRIKANDI

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