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Since it was confirmed that rugby sevens would be played at the 2016 Olympics, there’s been a lot of discussion about who should represent Australia in Rio.
Bill Pulver has said any 15-a-side stars who want to go will have to give up a season of Super Rugby and the Wallabies, and commit to the shorter code.
Presumably any rugby league star with sevens ambitions would have to make the same commitment.
The debate has always been based on the assumption that Australia will qualify for the competition in Rio, but that is not a sure thing.
Twelve teams will compete in Rio. There’s no doubt Australia easily has one of the best 12 teams in world sevens, but that is not how qualification will be decided.
Firstly, one of the places will go to the hosts, Brazil.
Next, four go to the top-four finishers in this year’s sevens tournament. Currently, that is Fiji, South Africa, New Zealand and England (who will qualify on behalf of Team GB). Australia is in fifth place.
There is only one round left in this year’s tournament, and, with 16 points separating the teams, The odds are against Australia getting back into fourth. Australia need to win the next round and England finish no better than 10th place. If England simply finish as runners-up in their pool – they play Scotland, Kenya and Brazil – they will qualify ahead of Australia no matter what else happens.
Six more places will be decided by regional tournaments giving a spot each to winners from Oceania, North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. Australia will compete for a spot in the Oceania round.
Certainly, Australia will be the highest-ranked team there, and favourites to gain qualification, but they’ll need to get past Samoa. Samoa are out of form, and only in ninth place in this year’s sevens comp, but they’ve won titles before. With the Olympics on the line, they could yet raise their game. They even made the cup final in the first round of the sevens this year on the Gold Coast.
If Australia does trip up in November, and fails to clinch qualification, a selection of teams who failed to get through their regional qualifiers will compete in a play-off. Again, Australia ought to be favourites regardless of who appears, but it won’t be a foregone conclusion.
From North America, either Canada or USA will play, the other presumably having gone through earlier in their regional qualifier. The USA beat Australia in Glasgow at the weekend, and currently stand just behind them in this season’s rankings, their best-ever result.
So maybe Canada will be easier pickings? Well, the Canadians beat the USA in Glasgow, and also defeated New Zealand in the Tokyo round. They are capable of pulling off an upset win too.
Europe will also have teams at this final qualification round. One side will have won the regional qualifier and that may well turn out to be France, who are the highest ranked non-GB European team. Still, that would leave Portugal, who held New Zealand to a draw in Hong Kong. There’s also talk Ireland might finally field a sevens side at this late stage, although it’s hard to see them having enough pedigree in the code to mount a challenge.
In short, Australia should still be able to take advantage of one of the two Olympic qualification routes available to them, but there are a couple of banana skins on the way.
From a management point of view, perhaps the worst part about not qualifying automatically is that it becomes more difficult to plan ahead. Players who are thinking about Rio would probably like to make a decision on their commitment after the World Cup ends in October.
The Oceania qualifier takes place on November 15th, which isn’t too long to wait. However, if Australia blow that chance, then a date for the final round has not even been set. All World Rugby has confirmed is that it will take place sometime between November and May.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.