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The Wallabies have a kicking problem, and until it’s solved their chances at the World Cup are severely curtailed.
On the weekend Christian Lealiifano missed a conversion so simple it was basically a given. Just to the left of the uprights, a right-footed kick. Simple as. He hit the post and it bounced out, costing the Brumbies a win.
It was a miss that would have made Matt Giteau blush like it was Scotland 2009 all over again.
The Brumbies didn’t deserve to win their clash against the Stormers on the weekend, they played incredibly negative rugby, highlighted by the way they smartly marched down the field to get their last try, and what should have been the go-ahead conversion.
If only they’d deigned to play rugby before the 65th minute they could have run away with the match, instead of deciding to niggle, niggle some more and then niggle on top of that. But despite their negative plan, the Brumbies could have won if their kicked had put a simple attempt through the posts.
Lealiifano is one of the better kickers going around for Australia at the moment. Marinate on that in light of his miss on the weekend.
Bernard Foley had a shaky game against the Force on the weekend too, missing a couple of kickable attempts – although not as many as the positively shaken Sias Ebersohn. It affected the Waratahs chances of winning the game late on as well. The Tahs were down by 7 and could have taken a shot at goal from just outside the 40-metre mark with about 10 minutes left. Foley’s stats for the night – two from five – played a role in the Waratahs going for the lineout option rather than taking the relatively simple points on offer.
The incumbent Wallabies fly half’s kicking reputation has been greatly overstated since he slotted the grand final-winning penalty against the Crusaders last year. But he’s actually erratic with the boot. He made it in the final, and you can’t take that away from him, but over his career he misses that kick more than he makes it.
Out of the last five Waratahs games Foley has had two games you’d class as good at Super Rugby level – he potted three from four against the Brumbies and five from seven against the Blues.
Lealiifano, who is not long removed from a seriously sketchy kicking season, has landed 74.7 per cent of his kicks in Super Rugby so far. Foley has landed 64.81 per cent of his. Ouch. That’s the kicking rate of the most likely Wallabies goal kicker heading into a World Cup? Only Ebersohn (42.86 per cent) has a lower kicking percentage than Foley of any recognised kicker with more than 20 attempts at goal this season. Lealiifano is a better kicker, but he’s not likely to be on the field enough to be the main kicker for the Wallabies unless there is injury.
Mike Harris kicks well enough for the Rebels, but he’s not going to play for the Wallabies again. And we shouldn’t even go near the Force or Reds.
The main World Cup suspects from New Zealand are mostly around or above the 75 per cent mark – a reasonable benchmark for Super Rugby level.
Dan Carter is sitting on 77.42 per cent, including a game where he kicked 50 per cent in a loss, plus there’s a small track record of goals scored. Lima Sopoaga is on 76.92 per cent, while Colin Slade’s 72.92 per cent is something he’d be expecting to improve on.
What about those South Africans? In case you haven’t been staying up late/getting up early/watching the recordings, they’re doing extremely well off the tee.
Handre Pollard has taken the most kicks of anyone in Super Rugby so far (56) and has landed 80.36. Elton Jantjies makes 81.13 per cent. Demitri Catrakilis makes an absurd 89.36 per cent of his attempts. Patrick Lambie, probably competing with Pollard for the Springbok number 10, is slotting 77.5 per cent.
Jantjies is right about the mark a good long-term Test rugby kicker should be hitting – 80 per cent. Kicking your goals in Test rugby is even more important than Super Rugby given there are fewer try-scoring opportunities, and that is amplified even more during a World Cup. The South African kickers have a few right around that mark and the New Zealand kicking crew have a history of making theirs at about that rate.
And we haven’t even considered the northern hemisphere heavyweights, all of which have reliable kickers, probably aiming to nail the 80-85 per cent range, not 75 per cent and below where the Australian kickers languish. Leigh Halfpenny can kick goals easier than I can tie my shoes, and English and Irish fly-halves rarely kick poorly.
Looking at Lealiifano and Foley in terms of percentage is one thing, their kicking style is another – and is part of why they’re prone to having very poor days. Foley’s kicking style is very much a stabling motion, rather than a traditional arching swing and follow through, whereas Lealiifano relies on a (slightly reduced) curve on the ball’s flight. Both are variables that can be accentuated under pressure or when the kicker is tired.
The likes of Carter, Sopoaga, Catrikilis, Pollard and other higher level kickers aim to kick the ball dead straight, and while they have varied run up intensity, all clear their leg right through the ball. The more consistent, metronomic kickers have fewer moving parts and make their movements long and flowing.
We have a kicking problem that needs addressing.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.