Scone is often described as the Horse Capital of Australia. A horse breeding haven where many of Australia’s best studs are located. It conducts 16 meetings a year, and this weekend it takes centre stage with two high quality race cards on Friday and Saturday.
And deservedly so too because the track itself would have to be one of the finest country tracks in Australia with it’s wide open stretches and long home straight.
Rarely does a horse suffer interference of any magnitude, and any that can lead all the way certainly earns victory after piloting the rest of the field around long sweeping turns.
My focus is on the Scone Cup on Friday, a Listed handicap race over 1600m, which attained that status in 2006.
It is more often that not won by a horse at double figure odds that gets under the guard of the punter.
Given that, my aim is to try and pinpoint those historical factors that might point us toward the winner this time around.
Below are the last 12 winners with Age, Gender, Barrier Draw and Weight carried to win.
• 2014 CAMEO 4m (1) 54kg $21
• 2013 SPEEDINESS 5g (9) 57.5kg $13
• 2012 RASPBERRIES 4m (2) 56kg $9
• 2011 DYSPHONIA 4m (10) 53kg $11
• 2010 KEEPIN’ THE DREAM 5g (15) 53kg $10
• 2009 OBVIOUS CHOICE 4g (11) 53kg $21
• 2008 NEWTON’S RINGS 7g (8) 57.5kg $8.50
• 2007 SPY ZAIM 4g (12) 53kg $6
• 2006 FIGHTING FUND 4g (6) 51.5kg $8
• 2005 IMPALER 4g (11) 57kg $9
• 2004 JEREMIAD 4g (11) 58.5kg $3.50
• 2003 FULL ON MAGIC 4g (13) 53kg $13
Relevant Stats (weighted, collated, and totalled in table below):
A. 9/12 four years of age – 3 points
B. 12/12 raced at 1300-1600m last start- 3 points
C. 10/12 thirteen days between runs – 3 points
D. 10/12 start at $8 or better – 2 points
E. 10/12 stayed at same weight or dropped weight from last start- 2 points
F.. 9/12 drew barrier 8 or wider – 2 points
G. 8/12 placed settled 5th to 9th in early to middle stages of race (behind leading bunch- midfield types but not backmarkers) – 2 points
H. 6/12 ran at Hawkesbury last start (and last 5 winners) – 1 Point
I. 6/12 trained at Warwick Farm – 1 point
| HORSE | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | TOTAL |
| 1.Monton | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | ||||||
| 2. Strawberry Boy | 3 | 2 | 5 | |||||||
| 3. Pheidon | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 | ||||||
| 4. Malice | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | ||||||
| 5. Kourkam | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | ||||||
| 6. Kaypers | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | ||||
| 7. Tales Of Grimm | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | ||||||
| 8. San Diego | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| 9. Medcaut | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | ||||
| 10. Lucky Lago | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| 11. Evangelist | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |||||
| 12. Darci Magic | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | |||||
| 13. Great Esteem | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | ||
| 14. Frespanol | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | |||
| 15. Excited Primce | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |||||
| 16. Ode To Caitlin | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
Quite clearly the top 2 Historical chances appear to be Great Esteem and Frepanol.
Great Esteem is a four year old has won four of five starts since joining the Peter and Paul Snowden training establishment, and is the only horse in this field to have won at the Hawkesbury meeting that was abandoned thirteen days ago. That meeting has provided the last 5 winners of the race so he stands alone on that count. He wasn’t suited on the Heavy track first up, and he does have a respectable second up record, and at the distance. The negatives are that he hasn’t won a race with less than 21 days between runs, and no horse has won this race in the past 12 years having had less than two runs back from a spell. The stable can do no wrong at present though, this is the lowest weight he has ever carried, and the odds about him are very generous.
Frespanol is from the Gai Waterhouse camp and meets his stablemate Pheidon 2kg better for a 1.4 Length defeat last start. He has drawn a better draw than Great Esteem and has better fitness levels. His previous form also indicates that he might be better with a few more days between runs but he did have a months break before his second last start. He should get an ideal run in the race and a double figure price seems decent value about him also.
Conclusion;
It’s hard to split these two and possibly the third best is the in-form Godolphin runner San Diego who comes in as equal third top historical rater. Kourkam possibly next best form the Tony McEvoy stable.
I’m not totally convinced he is a middle distance horse and he failed badly at 2000m last start off a 35 day break. 1600m seems to be his ideal trip (2-2-1/6) and he should be fitter for that last run from a far better barrier.
Historically speaking though I’ll go this way, and there’s plenty of value to be found:
1. GREAT ESTEEM ($21)
2. FRESPANOL ($13)
3. SAN DIEGO ($7)
Longshot: Those who like a real longshot might do worse than consider the mare Ode to Caitlin at 200-1. She was very impressive winning three starts back here and connections might have had this race in mind.
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