Roar Guru
Top spot in the Australian conference goes on the line when the struggling Reds host the resurgent Rebels in a crucial Super Rugby derby at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Join us here at 7:40pm (AEST) for live scores and commentary.
Before a ball had been kicked in anger in 2015, only the stupid and stupidly optimistic would have predicted the Melbourne Rebels would top the Australian Super Rugby conference.
But the Rebels travel to Brisbane to play the cellar-dwelling Queensland Reds knowing that a win will do just that – put them top of the pile in Australian rugby with only four rounds to play (although, with their immediate rivals for top billing, the Waratahs and Brumbies, still to play this weekend).
And they will come into this game high on confidence, having won four of their last five games – and the loss was an unlucky one to the champion Waratahs in Sydney. It’s the best winning run in their history.
But waiting for them in Brisbane will be a dangerous Reds outfit, who will have been stung this week by the sudden appointment of John Connolly as a coaching consultant. ‘Knuckles’ is exactly the sort of hard-headed character who should be able to shake the Reds out of their slump, and have them charging onto the Suncorp surface breathing fire.
It’s an intriguing match-up!
Key statistics
The Rebels are currently ranked No. 1 in Super Rugby for both average carries per game and rucks won, but last for lineout success, so they will likely look to retain possession, run their opponents off their feet and keep the ball in play.
The trick for the Reds will be scoring enough points to keep their opponents under pressure – they are currently ranked last or second last in Super Rugby for clean breaks, tries scored, points scored and goal kicking. Oh, and they are currently ranked last in Super Rugby for playing rugby, which is not ideal.
Prediction
This is an incredibly difficult game to pick. The Reds might be anchored to the bottom of the ladder, but they will surely lift in front of their home crowd, and it’s hard to know what effect having Connolly in the dressing room might have. I suspect they will be fired up.
Meanwhile, the Rebels are looking great and winning games, and travel to Brisbane buoyed by the news that young tearaway Jordy Reid has just committed to them by signing a new contract.
Form, statistics and common sense point to a Rebels win, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Reds will be pumped for this one, and I am going to tip them in a close one.
Reds 1-12.