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We’ve known for some time that Super Rugby is more often than not skewed toward the home team, yet it’s taken until Round 13 before every home team won.
For what it’s worth, last season this first happened in Round 6, and again in the penultimate round. Yet this season, the home/away win ratio is still not a 60-40 split.
And it started so well for us. By the end of the game in Wellington, we were indestructible. By breakfast Sunday morning, less so.
Elisha maintained a strong run of late to win the round with 6/7.
Paddy’s curious decision to pick the Brumbies in Cape Town – more so than Christian Lealiifano’s missed conversion – might just be the biggest ‘what the?’ moment of the round, and he’s given up his lead as a result.
The big Round 14 questions: can the Blues show they can beat a top team like we’ve been led to believe they’re capable? Is there more pressure on the Reds to win, or on the Rebels to maintain their roll?
Will Wellington host the biggest New Zealand derby of the year to date? How can the Waratahs bounce back against the Gummies? Who will win the battle of simple game plans in Jo’burg? And who will miss the most tackles in Bloemfontein?
Elisha Pearce
Tips: Bulls, Rebels (PP), Hurricanes, Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders.
“If the Bulls want to win the South African conference, taking down the Blues on the first leg of their Australasian swing is a must, with the Stormers on a bye. Book that, but it’ll be close. Rebels to keep their roll going against the Reds, who will have about half as many missed tackles and it’ll still be too many. Rebels are looking after my powerplay too, so take good care of it!
“Hurricanes v Chiefs – this is the game where, with a win, the Hurricanes seal top spot.
“Have to back the Waratahs physicality and desire to earn a win this week, rather than just wait for it and keep the Sharks win-less on their long trip. Go with the Brumbies in a game with a bit more rugby this week; it’d be a big win for them against an in-form Lions team.
“Highlanders will get a win away too – that’s too many away teams, I know but stick with me!”
Diggercane
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Hurricanes, Waratahs (PP), Brumbies, Highlanders.
“Fast approaching the Business stage of the completion which means the bloke who owns the local bottly will be happy.
“I will potentially go against the grain here and perhaps it’s my Kiwiana shining through but I will back the Blues at Eden Park for a rare victory, while I simply have to jump on the Rebels bandwagon for Friday night, despite what I would expect to be a better Reds effort at home after last weekend’s second half capitulation.
“I will back the Waratahs to bounce back hard at home after the disappointment of last week’s performance and can have my powerplay to boot, while in South Africa I am backing the Highlanders and Brumbies to be more desperate to win this weekend than their respective opponents.
“And, in a move that I am sure will shock a few of you, surprise! I am backing the Hurricanes to beat the Chiefs this weekend in the all-important New Zealand conference match, which I believe will go a long way to deciding top dog status in both the Kiwi Conference and overall Super Competition for 2015.”
Spiro Zavos
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Hurricanes, Waratahs (PP), Brumbies, Highlanders.
“The round started well for me, although I should have taken the Crusaders at home, with Richie McCaw and Dan Carter playing their last home match, as the Powerplay. As it was, my Powerplay of the Waratahs to beat the Force was a double loss and stuffed up what, for me this season, would have been a good round.
“Undeterred, I am taking the Waratahs this weekend as my Powerplay to beat the Sharks at home. Some of my other decisions are based on the need of the teams I’ve selected (Brumbies, Hurricanes and Highlanders) to show whether they are championship quality sides, or not.”
Paddy Effeney
Tips: Bulls, Rebels, Hurricanes (PP), Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders.
“Christian Lealiifano stitched me up big time last week, and no doubt will buy me a beer next time we catch up. Cough.
“This week I’m liking the Bulls to go on a rampage, the Rebels to defy the knockers and go on a finals charge. They’ll be my powerplay too.
“Then things get tricky. I like the Canes over the Chiefs, more for coin-flip reasons than any sane ones; the Waratahs against the Sharks (despite their loss to the Force), and the Brumbies against the Lions. I’ll go the Highlanders too, just to make sure I don’t pick more than one South African team this week, which will no doubt have me in trouble next week.
“As Diggercane says, ‘Go Canes!’”
Brett McKay
Tips: Blues, Rebels, Hurricanes, Waratahs, Brumbies, Highlanders (PP).
So then, fans of the Rebels, Canes, Tahs, Brumbies, and Highlanders should prepare for anxiety. All season, ‘consensus’ has indeed been a dirty word, and with the five of us picking the last five games the same, the round will essentially be decided by the first game.
And there’s not really a lot left for me to explain, except to say I’ve gone for the Blues at home. Three of the four South African teams have lost their first game on tour this season, and I’m banking on that to remain the case for the Bulls. That said, the Lions did win their first game on tour, which was against… the Blues. I’m sticking strong.
As for the powerplay, I’ve tried using it up front, I’ve tried it in the middle, and I’ve tried it at the very end twice, getting it right both times. So that’s good enough for me, Highlanders it is.
The summary
| Round 14 | Diggercane | Patrick Effeney | Brett McKay | Elisha Pearce | Spiro Zavos |
| Overall | 67 | 67 | 60 | 65 | 63 |
| Last week | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| BLU v BUL | Blues | Bulls | Blues | Bulls | Blues |
| RED v REB | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels | Rebels |
| HUR v CHI | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Hurricanes | Hurricanes |
| WAR v SHA | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs | Waratahs |
| LIO v BRU | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies | Brumbies |
| CHE v HIG | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders | Highlanders |
| POWERPLAY | Waratahs | Rebels | Highlanders | Rebels | Waratahs |
| BYE | Crusaders, Force, Stormers | ||||