This famous old sprint race of the Australian turf is about to stage its 122nd running. It was made a set weights and penalties race in 2007, which attracted the high calibre likes of Takeover Target and Black Caviar, who duly won at very short odds.
But apart from those two sure-thing wins, taking Handicap status away from the race hasn’t stopped the upset results coming. Three horses have won at $31, and another at $41 in the past eight years, so it has been a bit of a nightmare race for punters.
Recent history doesn’t tell us a lot either, excepting the fact that mares have managed to win four of the past five editions (and five of past twelve), 11 of the past 12 have been won by Victorian trained horses, and 11/12 ran at either 1100m or 1200m last start.
Oddly, the last male horse under five years of age to win this was Marstic in 2000. Interesting because there are a plethora of top males chances of that age engaged this year.
It looks an intriguing race this year, and excepting one or two poorly weighted runners it does seem to resemble a true handicap race. And it certainly doesn’t lack depth.
Race tempo
There should be a genuine enough speed here with the likes of Flamberge, Thermal Current, Lord Of The Sky, Gregers and Tudor prepared to take up the running.
Three of those gallopers are drawn wide so will have to high tail it to either find the rail or get some cover. That might set the race up for a run on horse and there are quite a few fast fast finishers in the race.
Morphettville is also a track that seems to suit horses swooping down the outside in recent years, so I’m inclined to favour a midfield/backmarker type to win.
Runner analsyis
1. Hucklebuck 4g
Has won all four of his starts in South Australia, and has won two barrier trials in preparation for this. He is 8-2/11 on left handed track and is 3/4 at the distance, ditto first-up.
Perfectly drawn and hard to beat, just a matter of his ability to give some decent horses 3kg and a fitness disadvantage. He is a Group 1 winner though so he has earned the weight.
2. Lucky Hussler 5g
One of the most improved horses in Australia under the tutelage of trainer Darren Weir. He meets Hucklebuck on similar terms for a narrow defeat in the Emirates last Spring but has better fitness levels. His second and third-up stats look pretty ordinary, but he looks very hard to beat after his great run in the All Aged Stakes last start. Again it’s just a matter of whether he can give 3 or more kilos to some decent horses down in the weights.
3. Smokin’ Joey 7g
He won this race last year at juicy odds but was off a 21-day break, whereas he is first up this time. He doesn’t have great first up statistics (1-2/10) and maybe the slow track last year played into his hands on the day, despite his seeming dislike for such conditions. Two of his last three wins have been at $40-plus, and he may well get close to those odds again here. Not to be underrated despite a 2kg weight rise this year.
4. Flamberge 5g
Absolutely flies first up and he gave Chatauqua a huge fright under similar circumstances back in March over 1100m. Maybe a month or two more away from racing would have been preferable, and his outside barrier might make things a bit difficult with other speed in the race. Can’t be discounted though, particularly if he can get some cover early in the race.
5. Thermal Current 4g
He won one of the main lead up races to this two weeks ago here (D.C. Mackay Stakes) but he might find this a little bit rich conceding weight to some others. For instance he meets the mare Politeness 3kg worse off for a 0.75L defeat three starts ago. He might also be better suited at 1100m rather than 1200m in this class.
6. Lord Of The Sky 4h
Produced a career-best effort last start up in Sydney when only just beaten by Chatauqua at weight-for-age level, which seemed way beyond his capabilities. That followed a respectable effort in the Newmarket so he has been on the improve.
It’s starting to look as though he might appreciate at least some give in the ground, which he might get in this race. And racing just behind the pace seemed to suit last start so maybe the penny has truly dropped for this enigmatic horse.
He has a wide barrier though, and how much energy he might have to use early could determine his chances. Damien Oliver aboard a bonus, as was the case last start.
7. Riziz 6g
Capable Adelaide galloper who has won six races here. Dead tracks and more than four weeks between runs seem to bring out the best in him and he might get conditions to suit, but ideally another week or so between runs would have been advantageous.
He drops in weight a bit off recent efforts, but needs to lift if he is to win this class of race.
8. Daytona Grey 5g
Scored a shock win when the rain came two starts ago at this track which he doesn’t normally like. Since then he went back to mediocrity last start and it would be a major surprise to see him beat these. Perhaps if it rained on the day he would come under consideration, but otherwise no.
9. Black Heart Bart 4g
Won only one of his first 11 starts in Perth, but the reeled together six wins in his last seven. He thrashed Dawn Approach last start by 5.5L conceding it 6kg. Dawn Approach then beat the likes of Barakey and Shining Knight just over a week ago and the latter horse has performed well at WFA.
This horse also beat Watermans Bay three starts ago and it won a Group 3 race at Flemington last start. A 67-day break between runs isn’t normally what you expect form a Perth horse, but his best form is with his runs spaced. Take away his form at 1500m+ and his record reads 7-4/12, superb!
Well weighted on his form over there, and he should get a race run fast enough to suit.
10. Under The Louvre 4h
Super-consistent horse with eight wins and five placings from 19 starts. Excels at this distance (6-3/10),and with more than two weeks between runs (7-5/15). Did beat Lucky Hussler in one race last Spring over 1400m, and meets him 2kg better for it.
He meets Vain Queen 3.5kg worse for beatigng her home in the Oakleigh Plate earlier this Autumn but he got inconvenienced at the start that day and has at least drawn better than her in this race. He has the ability to win this with his electrifying finishing burst.
11. It Is Written 6g
Capable galloper who tends to save his best racing for Moonee Valley, he shouldn’t be totally ignored in this race though because he loves the distance, has drawn an inside barrier which he much prefers, and the break between runs looks ideal for him. Only start here was a dismal failure at 1100m last year but he is definitely overpriced at $41.
12. Gregers 4m
Narrowly missed out on winning a largely on pace dominated William Hill Stakes last start against her own sex. She drops in weight a little, and will no doubt feature again on the speed. She is yet to win against male horses though, and it’s hard to determine her best distance, but it might be 1100m or less in this class. Hard to totally ignore though, and she looks good historically.
13. Politeness 4m
Wasn’t far away in the Willian Hill last start when she had little chance coming from the rear in a slowly run race. She might get a better speed to suit this time and some give in the track would also be advantageous. She has drawn the same barrier as last start (13), so it’s likely she will get back again.
Not without a chance, but perhaps she is looking for more distance, and she might lack the necessary dash to win against these.
14. Light It Up 4g
Likes the track and distance but surely he lacks the class to be competitive in this off an unplaced effort in a BM90 last start? Has won off a seven-day backup before though so perhaps stranger things have happened.
15. Yesterday’s Songs 4g
He is a promising young horse with a good turn of foot, but was found a little wanting two weeks ago behind Thermal Current over 1100m here. He has a 1kg weight turnaround on that horse. 1200m suits better and any rain around would benefit his chances. Not overly well-weighted at this stage of his career so he might struggle to make an impact.
16. Vain Queen 5m
She got a bit lost last start from a wide barrier in the William Hill Stakes, and the moderate early tempo in that race just didn’t suit. She gets a nice weight drop into this which should suit given she isn’t all that big. She bolted in at the same stage of her preparation last Spring (fourth up) over 1100m at Flemington.
My only doubt regarding her is whether or not she is good enough to win against top class gallopers at 1200m. Just maybe she is better at 1100m, but that is far from conclusive. She meets Lucky Hussler 2.5kg better for a 1.8 length defeat in the WFA William Reid over 1200m, but he had a cosy run, whereas she got posted wide.
Has to be taken seriously because she is probably the best-weighted horse in the race, and a mare has won four of the last five Goodwoods.
17. Tudor 3c
Drops nicely in weight but is eligible for easier races and only a three-year-old, so conversely isn’t well weighted. He has drawn very wide and will probably use up quite a bit of energy to try and lead the field early. Should give a sight but will probably be found wanting in the straight.
Conclusion
I’m a huge fan of Under the Louvre as this is a perfect race for him. His racing style should be suited to Morphettville, and his consistency and withering finish are hard to resist (as are his double-figure odds).
Black Heart Bart is well weighted and looks terribly hard to beat, so it’s not hard to see why he is favourite. This is his first start outside of WA though, and not sure he is any real value at early odds.
Vain Queen deserves respect as she is also well weighted, and Gregers is probably the one to go with on a historical basis.
Many other chances including the two at the top of the weights, and it would be no real surprise to see yet another massive priced winner. Enjoy the spectacle!
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