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Big ‘Bill’ is up for grabs again this year and the majority of chatter in New Zealand is whether we can shake that ‘other’ monkey off the back and win the tournament away from home.
There’s also the question of whether ‘Dad’s Army’ are capable of doing so, or whether father time has finally caught up with some of the integral squad members.
While it is generally agreed among most punters that All Black coach Steve Hansen is likely to stay faithful to his incumbents I have been wondering whether we might be treated to a surprise or two when he announces his first side of the year for the abbreviated Rugby Championship.
So, what are the possible options?
Props
Outside of injury, there seems little chance of anyone forcing their way into the current mix. With Owen and Ben Franks, Charlie Faumuina, Tony Woodcock, Joe Moody and Wyatt Crockett both sides are well covered.
The one chap who has caught the eye this season is Reggie Goodes, who has been excellent for the Hurricanes, in particular his mobility and ruck work. Another I have a lot of time for is Kane Hames, although his early season suspension for foul play may count against him.
Hookers
Hooker is one position of concern for the All Blacks, particularly in terms of experience. With Dane Coles’ injury concerns, Kevin Mealamu’s long history of problems, and one of the more promising hopefuls in Nathan Harris picking up what appears to be a season-ending injury, there will be some furrowed brows contemplating this position.
James Parsons was called into the northern touring squad last season and probably holds down the likely third position at the moment.
Outside of those mentioned, you have Liam Coltman and Motu Matu’u, both of whom have been involved in All Black training squads in the past, while Hika Elliott is another option and provides plenty of experience.
Perhaps we will see an investment in youth, such as Codie Taylor, although this seems most unlikely for the World Cup.
It is quite the conundrum. Flip a coin.
Locks
Outside the dominant starting pair of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick, the back-up positions are well and truly up for grabs. Throw a blanket over Jeremy Thrush, Luke Romano, Dominic Bird and Patrick Tuipolotu but of course you can only fit so many.
If there is one player who may force his way into consideration it would be James Broadhurst, who has been in fantastic form for the Hurricanes and has improved his work rate considerably.
Loose forwards
No shortage of options here. Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Jerome Kaino, Liam Messam and Sam Cane will all go and provide a versatile set of players with many being able to cover multiple positions, if not all three.
Victor Vito is another who may be chosen, and Steven Luatua has also been involved in the All Black setup. Akira Ioane has burst onto the scene with great effect but perhaps a bit too green at this point.
The guy I really like at the moment and would be my pick for the most likely bolter is Blade Thomson.
I remember an interview last year on Radiosport with Nigel Yalden, a rugby correspondent here in New Zealand, who mentioned Hansen’s want of a player who can cover both 6 and 8 as well as lock as it provides more options when planning a bench, and how he had viewed Patrick Tuipolotu as athletic enough to perhaps be that man. It’s a train of thought that hasn’t left me, and on form Thomson is the perfect candidate, adept in all three positions.
While Blade has missed a fair chunk of this season with concussion he has a great opportunity to present his case with the Hurricanes seemingly finals-bound. He might just push his way into calculations.
Halfbacks
Aaron Smith is still far and away the number one choice, while TJ Perenara has cemented himself as his backup with a strong season that has eased the concerns of many.
However, with Tawera Kerr-Barlow’s long-term injury the options behind appear slim. Augustine Pulu was widely nominated as a contender but has not had the best season, while the pros and cons of Andy Ellis have been debated ad nauseam.
Outside of those options the most appealing is Brad Webber, who seems to have jumped over Pulu in the pecking order for the Chiefs. Outside of that, I suspect the coaching staff will be keeping a close eye on Kerr-Barlow’s recovery.
First five
The All Blacks have plenty of depth here with Dan Carter, Beauden Barrett, Colin Slade and Aaron Cruden all seemingly fighting it out for three spots. With Cruden’s unfortunate season-ending injury I cannot see anyone else usurping the other three for a place in the squad.
However, this is a position which appears to be cursed come World Cup time, and with Barrett’s recent knee troubles and both Slade and Carter’s history of injuries, no one will be breathing easily.
Lima Sopoaga is having a stand-out season for the Highlanders and would appear to be the first choice in if the curse strikes. I suspect it is not a mere coincidence that Stephen Donald and Graham Henry will be leading that tour party to the World Cup later in the year.
Midfield
Ma’a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Conrad Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ryan Crotty are all in good form and outside of injury I cannot see this mix changing.
However, one midfielder I really like the look of is Charlie Ngatai. Pace, skill, size – he is definitely worth considering if injury strikes. Equally adept at both inside and outside centre, he would provide a quality option if required and if given the opportunity, he won’t look back.
Outside backs
Another area the All Blacks appear settled in, with Ben Smith, Julian Savea, Israel Dagg and Cory Jane all likely to be in the mix. Add in the ability of both Barrett and Slade being able to cover if required and I again cannot see any bolters.
Behind this set of incumbents there are some exciting prospects. Nehe Milner-Skudder has caught attention with ball in hand, while Patrick Osborne and Waisake Naholo have been terrorising opponents for the Highlanders. Osborne has been involved in training camps, while I would not have believed Naholo was in contention after his decision to move overseas however it is interesting to note he now appears to be trying to back out of his deal to stay in New Zealand. Watch this space.
Of all the options, the player that appeals to me the most is James Lowe. What separates him from the rest is his kicking game, a valuable commodity at Test level, and this would have him in front of the others if opportunity comes knocking.
That’s my take on the current state of affairs. Have I missed anyone?
And, what of our SANZAR partners? For me, the most likely bolters would be Rory Arnold at lock for Australia, and Jesse Kriel for the Springboks. Who do our Australian and South African friends think may be the surprise packets in their respective squads?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.