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Considering their shared history, relative squads and that there were just three points separating them on the A-League ladder this season, it’s a touch surprising to see how many people are tipping Melbourne Victory to emerge triumphant on Sunday afternoon.
Yes, they are at home, AAMI Park, and will have the vast majority of the 30,000 crowd behind them. Yes, they have the most prolific attack in the competition this season with 56 goals, four more than Sydney FC, and the most miserly defence after conceding 31 goals, four less than the Sky Blues.
Yes, they have a potent mix of youth and experience, strength and skill, with both a clutch of Socceroos past and present and a capable foreign stars. Mark Milligan, Carl Valeri and Archie Thompson, combined with Besart Berisha, Gui Finkler, Fahid Ben Khalfallah and Matthieu Delpierre, is some line-up.
Throw in Kosta Barbarouses and Daniel Georgievski and you have an awesome squad.
But Sydney FC are no mugs either. The NSW club’s foreigners are just as good in the shape of Marc Janko, Jacques Faty, Nikola Petkovic, Milos Dimitrijevic and Mickael Tavares.
They have their own Socceroos current and previous in Terry Antonis, Alex Brosque and Bernie Ibini. For All White forward Barbarouses, trade Kiwi marksman Shane Smeltz.
The Sky Blues also have the electric youngster Christopher Naumoff to call on. You could even argue they have a slight edge in that keeper Vedran Janjetovic has more experience than Victory counterpart Lawrence Thomas, with former Socceroo Nathan Coe out injured.
The rosters of both squads are evenly matched.
Sydney FC coach Graham Arnold certainly has more experience leading a team in grand finals than his old friend and Australian national team colleague Kevin Muscat. ‘Arnie’ coached the Mariners to two A-League grand finals, winning one, while ‘Musky’ has played and captained Victory in three, losing one and winning two. This is his first on the bench.
In reality there has been very little between these two teams, first and second on the table, this season. They played each other four times in the past 12 months, three times in the 2014-2015 campaign and once in pre-season, and each time it ended in a draw.
Something has to give come Sunday at 6.45pm.
Most of the players and coaches I spoke to this week are predicting a close game but a result in Victory’s favour.
“While they’re both top teams without taking anything away from Sydney, the games I’ve played against both, I’ve always felt that Victory playing at full strength were just such a solid squad from the back line right to the front,” former Newcastle Jets midfielder Zenon Caravella told The Roar.
“They were hard to break down, lightning on the counter but also have the ability to control games through Milligan, Valeri, Finkler.
“If you think about it for a salary-capped league they’ve put together an outrageous squad, I don’t know how’ve they got them all there because it’s definitely not for Melbourne’s glorious weather.
“Especially through the spine of Victory’s team there is a huge amount of not only experience but ‘big game’ experience with the likes of Delpierre, Valeri, Milligan, Berisha, Khalfallah, Finkler, Thompson, the list goes on which will be invaluable on an occasion like this not to mention the home ground advantage.”
Central Coast Mariners coach Tony Walmsley is also leaning towards Victory.
“They’re hard to separate,” he admits.
“Sydney FC’s form is great and Arnie has been there before but it will come down to players. Bernie and Brosque are in great from and Sydney FC’s away form has been strong, but Melbourne Victory’s front four and bench against Sydney FC’s defence is where it will be won.
“Delpierre has been outstanding for Victory. The midfield is interesting but Melbourne Victory are very good in active defence and give away little in transition. Melbourne Victory for me.”
Newcastle Jets coach Phil Stubbins has liked Victory’s chances all season.
“Like many in pre-season, I chose Kevin Muscat’s Melbourne Victory to end up as season’s champions,” he says.
“They had the balance across their squad with genuine weapons in attack plus real strength in depth defensively. Taking out the Premier’s Plate has proved those predictions from many correct but this is a one-off game and it’s a hard one to predict.
“Graham Arnold’s Sydney FC have gathered genuine momentum in the second half of the campaign and will be going into this match with genuine belief. They will certainly not have the feeling of underdog. They have goals in them and Melbourne Victory will have to be at their absolute best to beat them.
“Victory being at home might not be all to their advantage as well. Sydney can score goals with great efficiency if given space and I think as a game plan Arnie will say to Victory come and beat us if you can. This is where the home team could get hurt.
“Melbourne Victory will try to get on the front foot in the match and the longer the game goes on without a breakthrough they could be undone with a Sydney counter attack. Having said all that I hope it’s a belter of a game and I’ll stick with my pre-season prediction: Melbourne Victory in a close one.”
Melbourne City midfielder Erik Paartalu believes Victory will win on Sunday and so does Adelaide United counterpart Cameron Watson.
“Being in Melbourne will have its advantages for Victory,” Watson told The Roar.
“Both teams are in great scoring form which should make for an exciting match. I think in the end Victory will have too much firepower and being in front of that crowd might just be enough to get them over the line.”
For ex-Adelaide and Wellington Phoenix centre back Jon McKain it’s a tough choice.
“Different styles and different qualities. Victory has got more quality overall and on their bench, but Sydney are very organised. Victory to win.”
Former A-League grand final winner Daniel McBreen is another backing the Victorians.
“I think Victory will shade it,” McBreen says.
“I reckon it’ll be a game of the two attacks. Should be plenty of goals.”
To three-time A-League grand final winner Matt Smith, who won the toilet seat with Brisbane Roar, Melbourne Victory are also the clear favourites.
But there are some out there in Australian football who believe Sydney FC can go against the grain and claim the club’s third grand final win.
Western Wanderers utility Shannon Cole is one A-League player backing the Sky Blues.
“I’m guessing a Melbourne win will be easier on the Wanderers fans but I’m picking a Sydney FC win,” Cole says.
“The Big Blue in another grand final is massive for A-League grand finals.”
Perth Glory forward Richard Garcia feels his old club have the quality needed.
“Victory have the advantage being at AAMI Park but I fancy Sydney to go there and win it,” Garcia told The Roar.
“In a one-off game, form, previous results, ladder position all go out the window and it’s whoever can overcome the occasion and play to win. It should be a fantastic contest.”
Central Coast Mariners stopper Eddy Bosnar also says Sydney FC will be the team celebrating come Monday morning.
“They are very well-drileld and have for me the best player in the league in Brosque,” he says.
“I thought Melbourne City created so many chances against at times a lucky Victory. My hardest two games this year that I played was Sydney at home and Sydney away. You could feel how good they were when we played them here and lost by a big scoreline.
“Ibini has also been a different class. I think that Janko takes a lot on his back as normally two defenders concentrate on him and then Brosque or Ibini are free. In saying that, Sydney has the best midfield. For me, Dmitrijevic and Tavares make a massive difference.”
Support or not, Sydney FC have every chance in the grand final.
This season’s penultamite encounter will not be one-sided affair, no slaughter a la the Reds routing in 2007. It will be a game where neither side gives an inch, where everything is left out on the pitch and it’s likely it will take a second of magic, or perhaps a moment of madness, that decides the outcome.
The A-League’s deciding game has spewed up some fascinating fixtures since 2005 – from Archie annihilation to Holland handball, the Vukovic attack and Paartalu bullett. Get ready for some more fantastic football fodder on May 17.
Follow John Davidson on Twitter @johnnyddavidson
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