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The Brumbies try to shake off the disappointment of a one-point loss to the Stormers, by visiting the Golden Lions in their lofty Ellis Park lair; the Australians are seen as a likely finalist, whilst the home team is routinely ignored as a contender.
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Meanwhile, the Brumbies have failed to close out wins recently, despite having one of the world’s most influential players, David Pocock, the wrecker of phases, the thief of possession, and the ethical compass (except at rucks) of rugby.
The team from Canberra has a dozen or more international-level players, and if a composite team were formed, the Lions might only be represented by one man: their captain.
Warren Whiteley is the leading tackler in Super Rugby. He has completed 174 tackles, whilst missing less than a handful. If he does miss one this weekend, second-leading tackler Warwick Tecklenburg could run on from the bench and lend a hand.
The Brumbies will hope to make the Lions tackle all day. Ackermann says the Lions will need to change their strategy, because the Brumbies “will keep the ball for many phases; we’ll have to be patient and disciplined.”
Normally, the Brumbies are disciplined, with captain Stephen Moore in charge. But last week, they came to Newlands with a clear game plan of provocation, off-the-ball niggle, and ferocious breakdown skirmishes. Look for the visitors to cool it a bit, this week, as they are not facing Schalk Burger, but Schalk van der Merwe, and not the abrasive Thor Vermeulen, but the baby faced No 8 Whiteley.
Still, Jaco Kriel brings a fair amount of mongrel for the Lions, Pocock knows only one way to play, Scott Fardy can bring the wood, and Rory Arnold is no lightweight. Thus, both set of kickers (will it be Nic White, Jesse Mogg, or Christian Lealiifano?) will need to be accurate, in the thin air, where 60 metres is not out of the question for a pot shot.
Elton Jantjies and Faf de Klerk made a real difference last week, when they came on; this week, they will start. For the Brumbies, Matt Toomua makes a welcome return.
One would think the punch of Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, and Joe Tomane would outweigh the less lethal talents of Andries Coetzee, Harold Vorster, and Ruan Combrinck, but the Lions have been exceeding expectations all year.
They will need to use quick lineouts and the pass to score enough to win.
If Pocock is the most influential player on the field, the Brumbies will win. He may be a saint off the field, but on the pitch, he is a stone cold killer. Toomua may also tip the scales. The Lions play more of an all-team game, but if Kriel can keep Pocock honest, it might be eight wins–and a record–for the team from the Big Smoke.
Prediction: Lions by 1, courtesy of too many infringements.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.