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Michael Cheika’s Waratahs are making heavy weather in clinching a Super Rugby play-offs berth, thanks to lowly bonus points.
There’s only one sure way to defend the title they won so handsomely last season – and that’s to top the Australian Conference.
As it sits with four rounds to go, the Waratahs trail the Brumbies by two points, even though the Canberra-based franchise has won 7 of 13 games, while the Waratahs have won 8 of 12.
The difference are bonus points – the Brumbies have 10, the Waratahs 4.
There’s no way the Waratahs can match last season where they chalked up 10 bonus points in the 16 rounds to not only top the Australian Conference with 58 points, but the overall tournament.
It’s hard to reason why the Waratahs have been so hot and cold this season when they virtually have the Wallabies’ starting line-up.
But far too many of their roster have played in spurts, making elementary mistakes week after week.
Last Saturday night the Waratahs had turned over possession 21 times, and made 15 handing errors, yet beat the Sharks 33-18.
If they repeat those stats next week against the always hard to beat Crusaders at ANZ Stadium, they will be severely punished, when a win is a must to take over the Australian Conference lead while the Brumbies have a bye.
Then the Waratahs face the Lions and Cheetahs away, finishing the regulation rounds at home against the old enemy, the Reds.
After the bye, the Brumbies meet the Bulls at home, the Force away, and the Cheetahs at home.
The equation is simple.
Both the Waratahs and Brumbies must finish the rest of the season unbeaten, any hiccup could prove to be disastrous.
The ladder looks like this, kicking off with the three Conference leaders.
The Hurricanes are tearaway leaders, having lost just one game all season to the Waratahs. Included in their 52 points are eight bonus points.
Brumbies are on 38, with 10 bonus points.
Bulls are on 35, with seven bonus points.
The next three are equal on points: Chiefs 39, with seven, Highlanders 39, with seven and the Waratahs 36, with four.
Only four of the other nine teams can make the play-offs: the Stormers 34, with two bonus points, the Lions 31, with three, Crusaders 31, with seven and the Rebels 30, with six.
The ball is entirely in the Waratahs’ court. On their day they can’t be beaten.
The problem has been that those days are too far apart.
The Crusaders clash will be the Waratahs’ season litmus test.