The Greater Western Sydney Giants are the AFL’s feel-good story. They are playing really well and a lot of talk has centred around their finals aspirations. So what are their chances of making the top eight in September?
Firstly, let’s look at their win/loss calculations and what they need to do in order to qualify for a finals berth.
So far they sit at 5-2, one better than the Suns last year and one could suggest playing better footy. The seemingly magical number of 12 wins for the season seems more often than not to get a place in finals.
Who can the Giants beat to reach this magical number? Pencil in wins against the Lions, Tigers, Saints, Suns, Carlton and Melbourne. These seem like games they can win fairly comfortably given the sort of footy these teams are playing. The Saints are their toughest game, given they are playing good footy and simply not winning, but the Giants will be aided by the game being at Spotless.
Who else could the Giants pluck wins from? Essendon seem likely but not guaranteed, although being a home game helps. Geelong are playing some questionable footy (also a home game) and the Western Bulldogs are probably the best team on the list thus far. Surely, the Giants could scrape together a win from one of these three? If they win two of these and the other six, lock them into the top eight.
But wait, isn’t this like the Suns last year?
In some ways yes. But mostly no. The Giants have been lucky with a draw that, given how the teams have been playing, allowed them to come out positive.
Their only two losses have come against the Swans, a game in which they played very well, and West Coast in Perth, and West Coast’s only non-Perth based team loss came against the Bulldogs at a mere 10 points.
The Giants also knocked off Hawthorn – a major tick. The fact that the Giants were able to smash Carlton last week is also a plus. The Suns’ wins last year came against significantly less favoured opponents.
If anyone is going to push the Giants out of the eight, it will be North Melbourne or Port Adelaide. Given the loss to Brisbane last week, no one actually knows where the Power are at. They have not been in form for a while. North Melbourne are so unpredictable that they can beat any team on any day or they could get smashed. However, they have a very favourable draw from here.
North Melbourne are the Giants biggest threat. They face each other in Round 12 at Spotless which could be a make-or-break game. Western Bulldogs could fade and leave the Giants a small break, however, both are playing quite well right now.
If the Giants lose Shane Mumford they’ll be in deep trouble. He is crucial to their success and seems like their Gary Ablett. If he goes down, the Giants need a ruckman to stand up and play extremely well. This would be less crucial if Jonathan Patton was fit.
If it comes down to percentage? Thus far, the Giants have a strong percentage, despite being beaten by West Coast 120-33. If the Giants can minimise their losses to reasonable amounts, they could well sneak in on percentage. (Click here to see the current ladder.)
Can the Giants secure a maiden finals berth? Yes. They have a strong team and are playing good footy with a more balanced team than the Suns (who were relying heavily on Jaeger O’Meara and Ablett last year).
Their quest for finals continues against the Crows at Spotless on Saturday, a match they have every chance of winning. If the Giants can keep composed, fit and win a few 50/50 games, they will be locks for the top eight.
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