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In September 1939, both France and the UK declared war on Germany two days after the invasion of Poland. There followed a period of inaction on the continent that came to be known as the Phoney War.
This year the abridged Rugby Championship kicks off a fortnight after the battle for Super Rugby supremacy is decided.
The fact that there will be only three matches (two home matches for Australia and South Africa) already gives an element of the Phoney War about this year’s tournament.
Think of the Super Rugby and Rugby Championship as smaller Russian doll trophies housed in an even bigger Rugby World Cup trophy. Each trophy is a separate entity in its own right, and the winner rightly lauded, but the two smaller trophies are dwarfed when put alongside the Rugby World Cup.
The Reds, for example, were a wonderful attacking side in 2011 – who could forget that run from Will Genia in the final – and Australia were worthy winners of the last ever Tri-Nations. But when you talk of the year 2011, it’s easier for most to recall the winner of that year’s World Cup.
The more sporadic nature of the Rugby World Cup allows those winners to be singled out more. As an experiment, without the aid of Google, can you recall the last seven winners of the Super Rugby and Tri-Nations as well as the seven winners of the World Cup?
The Rugby Championship concludes on August 15 with a non-championship round just over a month before the World Cup begins. The match between New Zealand and Australia will serve as a Bledisloe Cup decider should Australia win or draw their match in Sydney the previous week.
All four coaches will be setting targets in specific matches and experimenting in others. While only Argentina and New Zealand will face off in pool play, every side will be looking to score psychological points in case of any potential match-up later in the tournament.
However, they will be equally wary of playing their hand too soon. Australia in particular, with easily the most challenging pool, will be keen to make amends for their scrum deficiencies against England in their last match, but won’t want to give their rivals too clear an insight into how they’ll approach their games.
Michael Cheika will, for example, want to use Will Skelton as a not-too-subtle warning to Wales and England, but at the same time he won’t want to overplay him and risk either tiring him out or converting his encouraging Super form into doubts about his abilities in a Test jersey. Read the same for the promising prop Scott Sio.
Heyneke Meyer will have been discouraged by the two losses on the Northern tour last year after the enterprising win against New Zealand at Ellis Park. He will be mindful of a looming semi-final clash – if everything goes to plan for both sides – with New Zealand.
He took the game to New Zealand last year and his players caught the All Blacks napping out on the fringes. He knows South Africa won’t find Ellis Park conditions in England even though Twickenham is easily one of the best fields in Europe. A loss at home would be a psychological blow but a loss might well add the required intensity to any follow-up match.
It’s interesting that South Africa are once again playing New Zealand in Johannsesburg. Have they identified that area as their best chance of success, because if anything it suits New Zealand’s game. What if South Africa were to move to Newlands where there’d be a greater likelihood of rain that might well bear more of a resemblance to English conditions?
South Africa don’t need to worry about an away match in New Zealand and will have two weeks to prepare after their first match against Australia in Brisbane. I imagine they will put everything into this match to try and wound New Zealand psychologically with consecutive losses.
New Zealand for once have a tricky draw. Not a bad thing to have and I never understand why they don’t reverse the fixtures every alternate year to help out Argentina in particular, who always have the unenviable task of starting with two energy-sapping games against South Africa.
New Zealand has just the one home game first-up against Argentina, who might feel cagey about revealing their hand too soon against a pool opponent (a bit like the French in pool play in 2011, who came perilously close to stealing the whole show at the end).
Then it’s unsure whether in eight days Steve Hansen will want to have a real crack at South Africa with his best squad or play cat and mouse with a more experimental side, as was the case in the last Tri-Nations. If Australia wins in Brisbane – a distinct possibility with seven from eight wins at Suncorp against the Springboks – does this encourage a playful gamble, or is it more important to not give South Africa any more of that winning feeling going into a tournament?
A loss in South Africa would be tempered by the fact that it involved a more experimental side. Equally, a loss with the best squad would hurt more. Is it better to feel the sting of defeat or cast doubt into your opponent’s mind?
My feeling is that with two games in Sydney and Auckland against the Wallabies, the most experimentation will come in Sydney. New Zealand, after all, has a home streak to protect. Yet perhaps Hansen might want to win the Rugby Championship – if New Zealand are in the hunt – and not have to worry about Auckland. Maybe he’s keen to recreate the do-or-die nature of knockout rugby?
It’s good to see the people of Christchurch rewarded with a Test, and the two Tests the temporary stadium has hosted have been crackers for differing reasons. A drop goal by Daniel Carter broke the deadlock against Ireland in the second Test in 2012, and the following year easily the most complete defensive performance I’ve seen in a while saw the All Blacks shutting out the French completely.
Depending on how the games go, sides will be motivated to get points to differing levels. Furthermore, results from the previous year will have an impact on how teams approach each match. It should be intriguing, for example, to see how Australia perform in Auckland and Mendoza after their losses last year. Similarly, South Africa will have different approaches to their away and home matches against Australia and New Zealand respectively.
Argentina travel to New Zealand and back in a week to play Australia in their only home game. I am more inclined to think they will target that second match. Then they might play a more experimental side away in South Africa to have a good crack at them at home the following week even though championship points won’t be at stake.
No team will want to risk burn out, and a few fringe players and new combinations will need to be tried out. Some teams will have the luxury of doing just that in pool play, but first the squads need to be picked and the strike players need to be managed well. You can’t expect to be firing on all cylinders from August all the way through to October.
There will be plenty of mind games and experimentation. No team will be peaking physically in the Rugby Championship this season and no team has all their best combinations set in stone. Even the winner won’t be able to relax or celebrate for too long. A bigger prize is up for grabs a short while after, and careful management will be required.
Which games do you think your coach will target and which ones might see a more experimental flavour? To make your assessments, here is the draw.
Week 1
17 July 2015
New Zealand vs Argentina
AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
18 July 2015
Australia vs South Africa
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Week 2
25 July 2015
South Africa vs New Zealand
Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
25 July 2015
Argentina vs Australia
Estadio Malvinas Argentinas, Mendoza
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Week 3
8 August 2015
Australia vs New Zealand
ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
8 August 2015
South Africa vs Argentina
Growthpoint Kings Park, Durban
Referee: Romain Poite (France)
Additional week
(not for competition points)
Saturday 15 August: New Zealand v Australia – Eden Park, Auckland
Saturday 15 August: Argentina v South Africa – Venue TBC
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.