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With just four rounds left of Super Rugby, now is time to take the temperature of each team. A comprehensive power rankings coming right up.
GROUP A: Taylor Swift in her own action movie.
Hurricanes
T-Swizzle is winning at life. The Hurricanes are winning.
As with Swifty’s clip, the Hurricanes are in a class of their own this year. They aren’t unbeatable – if you lose too the Waratahs you can’t claim any invincibility. But they are the most willing to play next to the edge, give things a try and rely on a combination of underrated defence under pressure and sheer skill to get things done.
Kendrick Lamar is one of the best, if not the best, rappers alive; Lena Dunham is the star and creator of her own critically acclaimed HBO comedy; but in Taylor Swift’s video clip Lamar does the verses, Dunham smokes cigars, while Swift beats the bad guys and sings the chorus.
Julian Savea might be the most physically talented wing alive, Ardie Savea the only flanker as explosive as Michael Hooper, Beauden Barrett has enough time to smoke cigars at first receiver, Conrad Smith…well he has no place in a T.Swift clip.
Together they have all tempered their outrageous skills for the greater good – everyone chips in with the hard yards in defence and backs each other up in attack. The Hurricanes are, like all good stars in a Taylor Swift action movie, shooting first and asking questions later.
It wouldn’t even be hard to make a supercut of Hurricanes highlights with Inception-like BWONG sounds behind it.
GROUP B: Lucky but undeserving
Bulls and Stormers
I put this pair in the second group because winning the South African conference is a huge deal. The travel means hosting an Australian or New Zealand team (most likely scenario) is a huge advantage for the winner of this conference. So, while both teams are very inconsistent, they are both within sniffing distance of a home final, and maybe even a bye in the first round.
We’ll blame the conference system in detail another day, but for once it’s not just favouring an Australian team. While the Chiefs or Highlanders catching the Hurricanes is highly unlikely, they could easily finish above both the South African and Australian conference winners and wouldn’t get a week off or a home final. Cry into your Waikato Draught.
The team I’m most disappointed with here is the Stormers. While they were touring Australia I thought they were becoming a well rounded side, with a strong and efficient attack to go with their brutal defence that’s been around for years. But they got back to South Africa and lost to the Lions. Not good enough if you’re going for a top two spot.
GROUP C: Hurting
Brumbies and Chiefs
Injuries have hampered both sides, with an extra dose coming the way of the Chiefs on the weekend. Dave Rennie is calling around Frankton, Putaruru and Southern United to see if there’s a few second row forwards he can pull into the side this week.
Without Aaron Cruden some of the Chiefs’ ability to destroy teams from first phase and on the blindside in attack was reduced. But they have enough skilful players in the side to let you imagine them doing something special this year still. But with the forward stocks becoming depleted you’d also have to imagine their defensive strength and ruck dominance will wane now as well.
The Brumbies have struggled with key players out for long stretches of this season. They have many of them back now, but their game plan only works if everyone is at 100 per cent capacity. It relies on being able to put in longer, harder, more forceful efforts than the opposition to win, there isn’t room for error.
So will their combinations be a little lacking? Will they be fit enough to play their attritional game for the full 80 minutes from here til the grand final? They are also on a bye this week, so may need to play catch up with a more limited style of play.
The Brumbies have been there or thereabouts for a couple of years now and the Chiefs have are in a purple patch for their club, they’ll both be relying on confidence and experience to overcome their hurdles from here.
GROUP D: Make up your mind
Highlanders
The hardest side to pin down in this year’s competition. On their day they are absolutely unstoppable, but when they aren’t on it gets messy, ugly and sloppy. They even show both traits within a single game.
Against the Lions a two weekends back they started strongly, opening up a handy lead, but let it slip and couldn’t get their act together to steal a win late.
Is it too much to say essentially throwing the game at Canberra in Round 11 by resting three All Blacks may come back to haunt them? Another five points – achievable against a depleted Brumbies side – might have secured the wildcard spot they desire by now.
GROUP E: Gentle giants
Waratahs and Crusaders
I’ve already predicted the end of the Crusaders run of consecutive trips to the Super Rugby finals. I’m pretty sure dial up was still a thing the last time they were knocked out before the knockouts. They’re still in with a chance and absolutely need to beat the Waratahs this weekend to make it work. But ultimately I still think they’re too far back, with games aainst the Hurricanes and Brumbies still to come.
And the Waratahs haven’t played like a team ready to defend their title all year. Last year they were both expansive and efficient. This year they’ve been mistake-ridden and inconsistent.
There are hints from both sides, but not proof.
GROUP F: A year too soon
Lions and Rebels
For a few weeks there the Rebels were being hyped as a potential gate-crashing finalist. And the Lions’ record was just as good, if not better.
You need to reach 10 wins to make the finals. The Lions lost three in a row to start the year and the Rebels only two of their first five. Both sides are still going to be hard to beat in the run-in but have probably left a little too much ground to make up.
These are the teams to watch for next year. The Rebels have done good work to sign people up for next year and I hope the Lions have a lot of the same group coming back. There are signs of excellence in there.
Elton Jantjies has finally played up to his potential with a Super Rugby team at the Lions. The centre pairing of Lionel Mapoe and Harold Voster with Ruan Combrink out wide looks very good. And the likes of Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg and Warren Whiteley are in a team that can score enough points to give their heft and grunt some room to work.
The Rebels pairing of Nic Stirzaker and Jack Debreczeni is bedding in nicely and needs another year to blossom and mature. Mitch Inman is becoming a solid Super Rugby centre and Sefanaia Naivalu is the winger of the Australian conference so far this year. Sean McMahon, Colby Fainga’a and Scott Higginbotham can all play with the ball too.
Next year guys.
GROUP G: You’ve let your fans down, no one cares anymore
Sharks, Cheetahs, Blues, Reds and Force
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.