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The art of prediction sees 'blockbuster' Friday night floggings

Roar Guru
19th May, 2015
26

The AFL fixture is sorted out in October, but recent form has proven how hard it is to get a true blockbuster in the premier Friday Night timeslot.

I have made a number of attempts at predicting the movements of the AFL (one in March, and two in May), and learnt that I am rubbish at it.

Today I am more interested in looking at the AFLs gurus, specifically in their allocation of Friday night football, and how well they’ve done in making the premier timeslot the best game of the round.

Firstly, the Friday night results thus far:

  • Richmond defeated Carlton by 26 points
  • West Coast defeated Carlton by 69 points
  • Collingwood defeated St Kilda by 74 points
  • Richmond defeated by Melbourne by 32 points
  • Carlton defeated by Collingwood by 75 points
  • Collingwood defeated by Geelong by 41 points
  • Essendon defeated by North Melbourne by 11 points

Straight of the bat, you can exclude the two Richmond games as first was played on Thursday night as the ‘traditional season opener’ and the game against Melbourne was before Anzac Day, so it could be argued that the Saturday timeslots were more preferred that round.

West Coast (ninth last season) taking on Carlton (13th) on paper should have been a close game, and the traditional rivalry of Carlton/Collingwood (11th) will bring the fans even if its 17th versus 18th. Equally, Collingwood hosting Geelong (third) has attracted large crowds in previous years so should be expected.

If the closeness of previous season results are taken into account, the Essendon (seventh) and North Melbourne (sixth) game with both teams on the up would be a blockbuster, which didn’t disappoint.

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The one that raised my eyebrow though was Collingwood hosting St Kilda (18th) at the MCG. It doesn’t really have blockbuster written over it, with most punters predicting St Kilda for the wooden spoon and Collingwood missing the eight. The result would have had most fans switching off at halftime.

In the next seven rounds however, Friday night fans will be treated to:

  • Geelong versus Calton at Etihad
  • Sydney versus Carlton at the SCG
  • Fremantle versus Richmond at Domain Stadium
  • Port Adelaide versus Geelong at the Adelaide Oval
  • Adelaide versus Hawthorn at the Adelaide Oval
  • Sydney versus Richmond at the SCG
  • Collingwood versus Hawthorn at the MCG

Before the season started, these would have all been locks for blockbusters. The two South Australian teams opening their Friday night accounts in June is harsh given the popularity of the Adelaide Oval. Of those games, four are still likely going to be close contests that keep viewers on the edge of their seats.

However, the two glaringly obvious downers are this week’s Geelong versus Carlton and next week’s Sydney versus Carlton games.

I can’t be too harsh of the Geelong game, as it should still draw a crowd, and pre-season predictions had Geelong on the slide and Carlton on the up.

But Sydney hosting Carlton is another story. Sydney were in the grand final, and likely going to be at the pointy end this season; Carlton coming from 13th. The NRL in comparison will have Penrith and Parramatta playing, which will probably attract the NSW/Sydney based fans. And the Melbourne-based fans are probably not that interested in watching Lance Franklin have some goal-kicking practice as Sydney walk it in.

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Obviously, there isn’t an easy fix. I am a fan of having a set fixture. It allows stadiums to be locked in (see the A-League grand final) and interstate fans can plan travel around it. Also broadcasters (who pay the bills) get first choice at who they believe will bring the most eyeballs to their telecast. But sometimes fans miss out.

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