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Normal programming resumes as the Blues and Cats face off in this week’s Friday night football.
Will he or won’t he? That seems to be the question on the footy world’s lips right now. Will embattled Carlton hovercraft pilot and full-time team mascot Charlie Carlton return to the driver’s seat in this week’s pre-game fan engagement operation?
Oh you thought I was talking about Mick. He’s not going anywhere apparently. This week’s press conference was a notch away from Malthouse being on a rocking chair, rolled up newspaper in hand, shouting ‘get off my lawn’.
I kid, I kid.
Before we get into this week’s game, let’s check on last week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Prediction: Essendon def. North Melbourne by 18 points.
Actual: Essendon def. by North Melbourne by 11 points.
Bonus prediction: both sides score more than 100 points.
Actual: neither side scored more than 100 points.
Did I ever tell you I don’t gamble? Last week is a perfect example of why. Something is really wrong with the Dons, and it centres on their forward line – or lack thereof. Twenty-two scores on 54 inside 50s versus 28 scores on 51 inside 50s largely tells the tale of this one.
To be sure, they’re missing Paul Chapman, Adam Cooney, Jason Winderlich and David Zaharakas – handy set of small to medium forwards there – but if Essendon don’t sort it out soon they’ll be looking at an early vacation. Switzerland is nice around September, I’ve been told.
Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
Friday, 22 May
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
Ethiad Stadium, Melbourne, Victoria
It’s Friday night, so you know what that means! It’s time to watch Carlton lose by 10 goals or more!
So far this season, the Friday night slot has resulted in an average percentage boost for the victor of 27 percentage points. That’s about four times the average AFL game. A big part of that has been Carlton’s conquerors, who’ve managed to win by margins of 27 points (ok not too bad), 69 points (bad), and 75 points (very bad).
This is the Blues’ fourth week-opening engagement of the year, and guess what? They’ve got three more to come over the rest of the year! Will they go 0-7? I thought Gil’s policy was (and I quote) to have the best product on a Friday night?
Anyhow, this game looks quite straight down the line, with the Cats not quite out of lives yet and looking a little better in recent weeks. But it’s clear they are one of this season’s middle-of-the-road, fighting-for-the-eight sides, that can beat up on the bottom four, be plus or minus 30 points against other mid table teams, and get smacked by the better sides.
Last weekend, Sydney smacked Geelong in the final quarter, with Geelong adding 15 points and Sydney adding 45. Prior to that the Cats had played Sydney close for the whole night, never having, or allowing, a period of outright dominance.
That’s not going to happen on Friday.
Carlton have been slowly getting worse on a weekly basis, culminating in last weekend’s evisceration at the hands of the Giants. GWS had 40 scoring shots in that game, the most that any side managed to hit so far this year, and did so on 80 inside 50s, which is, again, the single game record so far this year.
Yuck.
It isn’t going to be pretty, it’s a case of picking your margin. The Cats have been quite poor on offence to this point (ranked in the bottom six for offensive efficiency) but they may remedy that tonight.
Geelong to win by 66 points.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?