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The 10th-ranked Rebels travel from the world’s most liveable city (according to The Economist) to the world’s best place to visit (according to the New York Times) to play the Stormers. Join The Roar from 3:10am for live commentary and scores.
Your live blogger can and will comment on the temperature of the seats, the chips, and the cheerleaders, the age of the beer, and the vibe of the crowds; as he will be in the thick of the faithful Newlands fans, cheering for that ninth win.
The Stormers will defend their Newlands fortress using a demolishing scrum, ferocious team defence, pin-point kicking from the most accurate marksman in the competition, and a Test-quality set of loose forwards.
The Rebels will counter by undermining the Stormers’ creaky lineout, try to shut down the dangerous Damian de Allende (who leads Super Rugby with 46 defenders beaten) with redoubtable defence of their own, and a dangerous counter-attack, having scored eight more tries than the Cape side and run almost 500 more metres.
Rebels skipper Scott Higginbotham has described this match as “finals rugby”, because the Australian team simply cannot lose any of their games on tour and still hope to qualify.
The Rebels have been awarded five more yellow cards than the Stormers, and have been penalised 13 more times. Demetri Catrakilis is converting more than 90 per cent of his kicks for poles, and the Stormers are the least penalised team in the tournament by a wide margin. The Rebels, on the other hand, have missed seven more kicks than the Stormers, a facet that might prove decisive.
The Rebels carry the ball more than the average team, using Luke Jones, Mitch Inman, Higginbotham, Sean McMahon, and Lopeti Timani to make the hard yards. Inman is effective at getting over the gainline, as is McMahon.
It will be a cool, cloudy night, and the ball can become slick in the watershed of Table Mountain. The conditions (especially the wind) may affect how the teams play, but if the Stormers gain an early lead, look for them to open up in the second half, with offloads by de Allende and Schalk Burger (both have completed 16 this season).
The game may turn into a dour struggle; both sides are strong in the tackle. The Rebels should be able to rely on a solid lineout, with Luke Jones their banker, and Higginbotham a lanky option at the back. Yet as poor as the Stormers’ lineout is, they have notable lineout thieves in behemoth Eben Etzebeth, Duane Vermeulen, and Ruan Botha.
Speaking of theft, both sides will need to focus on ball retention, because pilferers abound on both teams. Vermeulen is rounding into Rugby Championship and World Cup form over the ball, the ever-present Schalk Burger is staking his claim on a bench seat at Twickenham, de Allende has won 10 turnovers, and the Cape side has collected almost 60 more loose balls than the Rebels.
Coming off a bye, the home team should have plenty of beans for all 80 minutes. The visitors will need to minimise their knock-ons, because nobody has been able to withstand the human tank that Matthew Proudfoot has assembled.
Dom Shipperley is a danger man for the Rebels, as is Sefenaia Naivalu. For the home side, Cheslin Kolbe and vice-captain Juan de Jongh are as slippery steppers as anyone in rugby.
Prediction
The Rebels’ scrum will come under serious scrutiny by stern interrogators Malherbe and Kitshoff. The home side should have too much in the tank; Stormers by a converted try or more.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.