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PRICHARD: Re-focused Maroons to win Origin opener

24th May, 2015
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Johnathan Thurston must be made public enemy No. 1. (Image: Dan Peled/AAP)
Expert
24th May, 2015
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Tell me how NSW is going to beat Queensland in State of Origin I, because I can’t see where a Blues win is going to come from.

OK, they’ve got home-ground advantage, and that is very important. The Blues have got a great record at ANZ Stadium – particularly in series-opening matches.

Seven times NSW and Queensland have played the first game of the series at the venue for Wednesday night’s match and six times NSW has won.

More 2015 State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures
» State of Origin teams
» Where State of Origin Game 1 will be won and lost
» State of Origin 2015: Game 1 preview

The only loss came in the opening game of the 2010 series, when the Maroons won 28-24. NSW won the most recent series opener played there – 14-6 in 2013. But I still think the negatives outweigh the positives for the Blues.

I’ve written recently about the fact Jarryd Hayne is missing and how the Blues brains trust can’t find a halves pairing they can have ongoing faith in, and now that the game is in sight those factors loom as enormous.

Hayne is an absolute superstar who was the overwhelming reason NSW won last year’s series.

The lack of star halves who are eligible for NSW means the Blues have had to go with a halfback who has been out of form this season, in Trent Hodkinson, and another halfback who has struggled previously at Origin level, in Mitchell Pearce – only this time at five-eighth.

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The Maroons have had more great halves to pick from in the last decade than seems fair.

First it was the partnership of Darren Lockyer at five-eighth and Johnathan Thurston at halfback. Then, when Lockyer retired, Thurston went to five-eighth and Cooper Cronk, who had warmed up from the bench for a couple of series, took over at halfback.

Daly Cherry-Evans can’t get into the Queensland starting side apart from Game 2 last season, which he started when Cronk was out injured.

Now, Cherry-Evans is out for Game 1 this year and Michael Morgan comes on to the bench for Queensland.

The apparently never-ending quality of this production line is extraordinary.

Let me ask you this: Leaving out Thurston and Cronk, if you had your pick of Hodkinson, Pearce, Cherry-Evans and Morgan as the NSW halves, who would you take?

I’d take Morgan and Cherry-Evans.

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The record of NSW in the last nine series would be much, much better than it is – just one series win to the Blues and eight to Queensland – if the two teams had swapped halves.

There isn’t much between the two forward packs.

NSW couldn’t pick Paul Gallen and Greg Bird because of injury and suspension respectively and they left Anthony Watmough and Luke Lewis out by choice.

Watmough’s time had come and while Lewis has vast experience and would still do a job for you, maybe it was time to bring a couple of good, young forwards into the squad.

The Blues pack still has plenty going for it, but the Maroons are unlikely to lose the forward battle. They will either finish level in that area or maybe even shade the Blues.

NSW can’t match the superstar Queensland backline. That is just plain obvious.
The Blues won the first two games of last year’s series largely off the back of a magnificent Hayne and a tremendous defensive effort that was supplemented by a large portion of in-your-face niggling tactics.

They did all of that just about as well as a team can do, but they still only won the two games by four points and two points respectively.

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Then, in Game 3, Queensland came out and thrashed them. Even when you take into account the possibility the Blues lost some intensity, it was a fabulous performance from the Maroons.

Queensland have learned from the mistake they made in games one and two, when they allowed themselves to get caught up in the niggling that the Blues had started.

It threw their game off balance and they didn’t start getting back on track until after the Blues had clinched the series.

The Maroons have talked about sticking to what they do best this time around and the referees are more likely to be less tolerant when it comes to the niggling as well.

We’re going to be left with a Blues side that doesn’t appear to have a lot of points in it trying to beat a very dangerous Maroons outfit that will have a better focus than it did last year.

The Blues may defend very well again, but it is highly unlikely they can defend well enough to stop Queensland from finding a way – at some stage of the game – to make the crucial difference.

It might still be fairly close, because the ANZ Stadium surface is usually a bit slippery at this time of year and that will suit the likely NSW tactics, but the Maroons will be determined to play differently to how they played last year and they have the necessary game-breakers.

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Maroons to win.

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