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What most Super Rugby fans knew already but were too hesitant or polite to say was finally confirmed on Saturday night. The Crusaders of 2015 are not a finals team.
Indeed, on the evidence of what we have seen this year, unless there is some savvy off-season recruiting, perhaps in tandem with a change of coach, this does not appear to be a team capable of maintaining what they previously regarded as an entitlement – a permanent place in the top echelons of Super Rugby.
Certainly the highs of seven titles since 1998, and the globetrotting heroics of 2011 following the Christchurch earthquake, now seem part of history as opposed to the now.
Their performance against the steadily improving Waratahs was nothing more or less than what was expected, a non-confrontational style of game relying on side to side ball movement, punctuated by, well, not very much at all in the way of line-breaking penetration.
Three times this year this style has paid handsome dividends, against the Sharks, Cheetahs and Reds, all of them sides inhabiting the lower reaches of the ladder, who couldn’t offer sufficient commitment to defence to shut down the Crusaders’ run.
But a quality side like the Waratahs was always going to be much better equipped to not only defend against such one-dimensional attack, but to also turn this into an offensive weapon.
Thus on numerous occasions we saw the Crusaders predictably attempt to shift the ball laterally, only for the midfield receivers to be sitting ducks for a well organised, rushed defence.
There is an old saying that you have to go forward first to earn the right to go wide, which is something the Crusaders have ignored for a couple of seasons now. Call it arrogance or call it an unshaking belief in a previously successful game plan, but it seemed scarcely believable that a side containing three of the greatest All Blacks ever did not stop to knuckle down at any point, and consider that a change in approach was required.
That they didn’t want to engage the Waratahs in an abrasive, combative forward style of game is fair enough, but that implies that they have other compelling strengths elsewhere. This Crusaders’ backline, however, does not have the collective spark and flash points of individual brilliance which the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders all have for example. Which ultimately left them in no man’s land, ripe for the picking.
Because of the different set-ups, and because Super Rugby is not Test rugby, it is way too premature to be extrapolating this into claims that Richie McCaw and Dan Carter are has-beens, and Kieran Read is nothing but a shadow of the world class No. 8 he was.
But Steve Hansen will have concerns nevertheless, particularly around Colin Slade, who bumbled around like a novice before gifting a break-out try to the Waratahs, and then picking up an injury for good measure.
To the Waratahs’ credit they were well up for the task and, despite the closeness of the scoreline until Bernard Foley’s late try, always seemed to have the game in hand.
Unless things go dramatically off the rails in the next few weeks, they will secure home ground advantage for the early part of the finals at least, and on that basis will be every chance of repeating last year’s success – irrespective of whether they are as good as last year’s side or not.
Michael Cheika-coached sides can always be expected to be physical and aggressive and he will be delighted that, even without Jacques Potgeiter, his players left an indelible stamp of authority on the game.
He will be less happy that two players, Tolo Latu and Will Skelton have been cited, deemed to have met the threshold for a red card offence, for lifting and dumping Crusaders lock Sam Whitelock in the first half.
As always, the best test for incidents like these is for players, officials and fans of one side to imagine if the jerseys were swapped over, and to think about how they would view the matter from the other side.
In this case Skelton initiated the incident by lifting Whitelock, seemingly intent on body slamming him into the ground. TV replays from ground level, from the touchline, show this most clearly.
Whitelock’s legs were tipped well above the horizontal due to the intervention of Latu, which certainly has him in a deal of trouble. In Skelton’s case he will no doubt argue that had Latu not intervened then he would have no case to answer, but the video does not support this.
It might not be the worst lifting tackle seen this year but with SANZAR having made it clear that lifting tackles are outlawed it will be no surprise if there are a couple of spare seats on the Waratahs’ flight this week to South Africa.
What would concern referees boss Lyndon Bray is how having two players cited for a red card offence could result in only one yellow card being produced on the field. In this regard, referee Marius van der Westhuizen, who for the most part had an excellent match, seemed hopelessly out of sync with his TMO Peter Marshall.
Van der Westhuizen correctly identified Skelton as the instigator, yet was thrown off course by Marshall insisting that Latu, by coming in late and lifting the legs, was the most culpable. Which was also correct, but where things broke down between them was their inability to grasp that it didn’t have to be one or the other, they were entitled to deal with both.
Van der Westhuizen was also interested in checking Latu for a punch, but Marshall had already clocked off, as if nothing further could be served by pursuing a bloke who already had a yellow card, so that matter fizzled out. All very messy.
Skelton continues to make giant strides, this year contributing for 80 minutes, game after game, jumping in lineouts, and imposing himself physically in attack and defence. Last year I wrote in praise of his potential and there are good times ahead for all to enjoy his developing career.
On Saturday night, however, he was involved in four incidents which, on any other night, with a different referee, could have seen him yellow carded. The lifting tackle on Whitelock, a thinly-disguised cheap shoulder into McCaw’s back, a driving shoulder into Whitelock on the ground, and pulling down a Crusaders’ maul close to the Waratah’s line.
That’s bordering on being a serial pest, and van der Westhuizen’s post match review will no doubt ponder how Skelton managed to slip under the radar and play out all 80 minutes.
Skelton hasn’t turned into Dr Evil overnight, this is simply another phase in his development, and he will surely learn to find the right balance between aggression and stupidity.
But if the tribunal does happen to provide him with a week or two off, he would be well advised not to feel unlucky or victimised, and to focus instead on how to find the edge of the line and stay just on the right side of it.