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We’re a third of the way through the 2015 AFL season, and it’s time to take stock.
The two Western Australian teams lead the race for the McClelland Trophy, awarded to the team that tops the premiership ladder at season’s end.
Finishing first after the home-and-away rounds is something of a poisoned chalice though, with only five sides going on to win the flag from that position since 2001.
Fremantle have dominated from the front, in the manner of a champion racehorse like Sunline, for those familiar with the New Zealand mare. They apply the pressure hard and early, to put the result beyond doubt, before tending to ease off in the second half.
A couple of times it has almost come unstuck, but they’ve had enough in reserve to remain unbeaten after eight rounds. Every part of the ground is working in perfect harmony, reminiscent of St Kilda under Ross Lyon in 2009, and they have all but secured a top-two spot.
Geelong tripped the Saints up on grand final day that year, but is there a side that can boast those sort of credentials this season?
West Coast aren’t that outfit, but have beaten most of what has been put in front of them this season, and comfortably so. But five of their six wins have come against sides currently in the bottom half dozen on the ladder. The jury is still out, as I wrote last week.
The two New South Wales teams have also been impressive.
Sydney has been building to their best football, as they have done so often over the years. We largely know what to expect from the Swans, and we largely get it. Their win over Hawthorn on the weekend has them with one hand on a top two finish, a position that is theirs to lose now.
Some expected Greater Western Sydney to be knocking on the door for finals this season, and right now they’re laying claim to much more than that. Their best football is slick and explosive off half-back and through the middle, with Jeremy Cameron and Cam McCarthy applying the finishing touches inside fifty.
Simply put, they’re now a bloody good football side. They’ll have a lull at some stage, and have also had a friendly enough draw, but they’ll back themselves to be playing in September.
Collingwood leads the next batch of sides, a cluttered middle band going all the way to 13th or 14th.
The Pies are at their best when their pressure is high, and as long as this is the case they’re always going to be in the contest against most sides with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom and Dane Swan getting plenty of football through to Travis Cloke and Jamie Elliott.
Jesse White is maturing into a handy foil for Cloke, and Taylor Adams, Jack Crisp, Tom Langdon and Adam Oxley are leading the second tier of runners.
Adelaide are starting to feel the pinch with important ball-movers going down, the likes of Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, Matthew Jaensch and Ricky Henderson all missing from Saturday’s loss to the Giants.
The Crows have been inconsistent after opening the season with three wins, and their inability to play four quarters of solid football has cost them. They need to fix this up if they’re going to make it to the finals.
Hawthorn are four and four, a fall from grace after many pundits were tipping an undefeated season post their Round 1 demolition of Geelong.
It hasn’t been all smooth sailing at Hawthorn in 2015. (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media)
The Hawks have lost their four games by a combined 24 points, and the lapses in concentration speak of a team that is waiting for September to arrive and the real football to start. They can ill-afford any more slip-ups against middle sides though – their top-two chances are all but gone, and they’ve still got some work to do to ensure a top-four finish.
Richmond have exposed both sides of their fractious personality in 2015, much earlier than they did last season.
Like many of the sides in the middle of the ladder, the Tigers’ best football is top six, and their worst is bottom four. They’ve added some grit to their running game in the last two weeks, but most importantly have addressed deficiencies in their defensive structure, allowing them to absorb more opposition forward pressure.
Essendon are very similar to the Tigers with their best and their worst, with their ball movement being particularly stodgy when down on confidence and form. They look a much better side with Chapman and Cooney in it, giving them a dimension of cleverness that can set them apart.
If we give each of Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn a top-four spot come season’s end, the remaining double chance position is still very much up in the air. The Bombers are in the running, and are better than a rough chance to claim it.
Geelong are no longer a premiership threat, but are still in the finals race. They haven’t got close to the really good teams, and have beaten the really bad ones, with some close games against the middle tier.
The Western Bulldogs were the Cinderella story over the first five weeks, but are struggling for consistency of effort as the season progresses, as is always the case with young sides. They’ll continue to have ups and downs, but the future looks a lot brighter than it did six or eight months ago.
North Melbourne and Port were the beaten preliminary finalists last season, but now occupy 12th and 13th on the ladder respectively.
The Kangaroos have been missing the silk of Nick Dal Santo and Daniel Wells, making them look like one-paced trundlers, but the lack of resilience has been the most alarming aspect of their season, with three losses by more than 10 goals.
The Power have lost all confidence, and it is starkly apparent that opposition clubs have worked out how to stifle their most important asset, run. They’re a side that seems to rely on adrenalin, but they can’t get their game going to an extent to draw on it.
Both of North and Port will come hard at some point, but how far away is their best form, and for how long can they sustain it?
Melbourne are progressing, and any spots they can claw up the ladder will be welcomed by a hungry supporter base. They’re making a nice fist of setting themselves for mini-grand finals, all of their victories having the flavour of a side that has specifically targeted a winnable game.
St Kilda have played honest football for the most part, only losing games due to youth, inexperience, and simply not being good enough yet. Those things will change, and perhaps quicker than some might suppose.
Brisbane were staggeringly poor over the first five rounds, but have since corrected to post a couple of wins. The best they can hope for this season is to be at the top end of the bottom six, and aim to land a couple of quality and experienced key position players when trade period comes around.
Gold Coast’s first eight weeks with Rodney Eade at the helm have been an abomination, calling to mind comparisons with Melbourne under Mark Neeld. The Suns have been decimated by so many injuries to their best players, and this year is a write-off. Let’s see what they produce next season.
Carlton are holding up the ladder, and Mick Malthouse doesn’t have long to go based on yesterday’s announcement. They too, have been missing important players, but both spirit and quality are lacking. The situation is dire, but has been identified as such by the club. The road ahead is long.
This has been a season of upsets, and savage momentum swings within games. As it stands, the premiership race looks between only three clubs, but the competition for finals spots is going to be fierce.