State of Origin kicks off on Wednesday night, as the SNW Blues look to successfully defend the shield that took them eight long years to win back.
Not only did the Blues win their first series since 2005 last year, they also put the clamps on the Maroons’ bid to extend their Origin dominance to a full decade.
Having now achieved what many thought impossible given the successes the northerners have enjoyed under Mal Meninga, Laurie Daley’s men will be out to prove that last year’s series victory was no fluke.
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However, the Blues have numerous challenges, with Paul Gallen and Greg Bird out through injury and suspension respectively, while fullback Jarryd Hayne has left the NRL to try his hand in the National Football League.
The major beneficiary of Hayne’s departure is Josh Dugan, who after playing as centre in the second and third games last year, gets his chance to shine at fullback, having excelled in the position for the Dragons this season.
The absences of Gallen and Bird will mark the first time since Game 1, 2010, that neither has been in the New South Wales side, and sees Robbie Farah given the honour of captaining the state for the first time.
All in all, there are six changes to the side that was meaninglessly thrashed by Queensland in the final game last year, with Bulldogs pair Josh Jackson and David Klemmer to make their debuts, while Roosters pair Michael Jennings and Mitchell Pearce, Eels winger Will Hopoate, and Sharks forward Andrew Fifita all return.
James McManus, Josh Reynolds and Luke Lewis are also out of the side that lined up in the dead rubber at Suncorp Stadium last July.
New South Wales Blues
Josh Dugan, Daniel Tupou, Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Will Hopoate, Mitchell Pearce, Trent Hodkinson, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah (c), James Tamou, Beau Scott, Ryan Hoffman, Josh Jackson. Interchange: Trent Merrin, Boyd Cordner, David Klemmer, Andrew Fifita. 18th man: Tyson Frizell. 19th man: Ryan James. 20th man: Matt Moylan.
An injury to Cooper Cronk proved a major factor in the Maroons’ first series loss since 2005.
Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston, Cronk and Cameron Smith are still there, while Daly Cherry-Evans, who performed admirably in Cronk’s absence last year, has been ruled out due to injury.
And despite playing just two NRL games since returning from a pre-season Achilles injury, Broncos fullback Darius Boyd has retained his place on the wing, while Slater has been named ahead of Inglis in the fullback guernsey.
There are just three changes to the side from Game 3 in 2014, with Matt Scott returning and Michael Morgan and Josh McGuire set to make their debuts, thus matching the Blues’ number of Origin first-timers.
Apart from Cherry-Evans, Ben Te’o and Dave Taylor are the other outs, the former having left the NRL for European rugby while the latter has been omitted.
Queensland Maroons
Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Will Chambers, Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk, Matt Scott, Cameron Smith (c), Nate Myles, Aidan Guerra, Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker. Interchange: Michael Morgan, Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett, Jacob Lillyman. 18th man: Dylan Napa. 19th man: Dane Gagai.
Why the Blues will win
The series opener is the only game in Sydney this year, and with Games 2 and 3 to be played in Melbourne and Brisbane, where the Maroons have enjoyed sustained success throughout the years, the incentive will be there for Laurie Daley’s men to win the series opener.
The Blues will be expected to have the full support of the ANZ Stadium crowd, which erupted into wild jubilation as the full-time siren sounded to signal the end of eight years of Origin misery after Game 2 last year.
The side will also be desperate to prove that it can win without Gallen and Hayne, two key men who helped shape the side throughout their losing streak. Their absences cost the Blues any chance they had of winning the 2013 series, though Dugan and Farah should prove their worth as the replacement fullback and captain respectively.
Why the Maroons will win
The Maroons will be desperate to prove that last year was only an aberration and win back the series before their star quintet of Slater, Inglis, Thurston, Cronk and Smith retire from the representative stage.
Slater, Cronk and Smith continue to star for a Storm side that is proving they are anything but a spent force, currently sitting in first place on the NRL ladder on percentage.
They, along with Thurston, who will be lining up for his 31st consecutive Origin match, and Inglis, will once again be relied on as the Maroons attempt to go 1-0 up in Sydney.
A win in Sydney would see the Maroons seeking a series clean-sweep, which would be a brutal response to their first series defeat since 2005.
Verdict
Neither the Blues or Maroons have been prepared to accept the favourites tag, but with this match being in Sydney, the Blues will be determined to lay the foundation for another series win.
In the end, the crowd support should be enough to get the Blues home. But the Maroons, as they did many times throughout their eight-year Origin reign, will be out to play the role of party-poopers.
Prediction
New South Wales by 10 points.
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