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Where State of Origin 1 will be won and lost

Trent Hodksinon. (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Expert
25th May, 2015
119
2942 Reads

Unless you’re a Martian being held captive in a Siberian jail cell for impersonating Elvis, you’re probably well aware that the 2015 State of Origin series kicks off tomorrow night.

New South Wales and Queensland are once again competing against each other in the interstate classic.

As is quite normal in my world, I’ve been having intense conversations, deliberations and debates with myself as I analyse where the game will be won and lost for both teams.

More 2015 State of Origin:
» State of Origin news
» State of Origin fixtures
» State of Origin teams
» State of Origin 2015: Game 1 preview
» PRICHARD: Maroons to win Origin 1

Following this internal monologue are said thoughts on Game 1 of this year’s Origin series.

NSW will win if…
The halves stand up.

If it feels like NSW fans have been saying this for a while, it’s because they have. The Blues forward pack and outside backs have – for the most part – been pretty good for some time now. However, there have been question marks over the halves pretty much from the day Andrew Johns retired.

This year has been no different, with no NSW playmaker demanding to be selected, which ensured that whomever did get picked was going to face criticism and have questions asked of them.

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In the end, the NSW hierarchy went with the much-maligned Mitchell Pearce and the out-of-form Trent Hodkinson. Needless to say ‘much-maligned’ and ‘out-of-form’ are not exactly the adjectives you want placed before your Origin halves’ names.

However, if Hodkinson can kick the goal attempts he’s given, gain plenty of distance on his in-game kicks, and be a rock in defence, then NSW will be more than happy.

Similarly, if Pearce can take on the line, get his outside backs some ball, direct the forwards around the park, and be solid in defence, he will have done his job.

Though there have been concerns raised over the potential lack of points the Blues team have in them, there are more than enough weapons to hurt Queensland where it matters most – the scoreboard – provided those weapons get the ball in areas they can be effective.

The pressure is on the two halves for a number of reasons, but if they can simply do their jobs – rather than be outstanding – NSW will be in with a big chance in Origin 1.

NSW will lose if…
Considering what I just wrote, the easy answer is ‘if the halves don’t stand up’, but I’ll take a slightly different route.

The Blues will almost certainly lose this match if they don’t dominate upfront, particularly the ruck.

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Much has been said about Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater being on the wrong side of 30, yet combined with Johnathan Thurston, they still represent the most dangerous spine in rugby league.

If these stars can play behind a pack with plenty of go-forward, and are provided with territory, possession and time with the ball in hand, they will make NSW pay. That’s more of a fact than a prediction: it will happen.

One way to negate their impact is to get in their faces, apply pressure and make them rush their decisions. However, another way to neutralise them in attack is to ensure they are playing behind a well-beaten forward pack.

It’s not rocket science, as every forward pack in every rugby league game looks to get on top their opponents, but if the Blues’ forwards can’t dominate Queensland’s forwards, it will increase the amount of time Cronk and Thurston will have inside the NSW’s half, while also helping Smith to control the game form dummy half.

Which will all spell trouble for NSW.

Queensland will win if…
They can unleash their outside backs.

Billy Slater, Darius Boyd, Greg Inglis, Justin Hodges, Will Chambers.

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Josh Dugan, Daniel Tupou, Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Will Hopoate.

The Blues backline isn’t a disgrace, by any means, but I know which quintet I’d select if you put a gun to my head. To be honest, I wouldn’t even need the pressure of a firearm at my temple to immediately choose the Maroons backline.

Yes, Slater is a little older these days, Boyd is returning from injury, GI seems to be playing through pain, Hodges is slower than a wet week, and Chambers is inexperienced at this level. However, they’re still a dangerous collection of players, and have a little more class their counterparts from NSW.

Yet apart from their class, it’s their firepower in attack that could prove the difference. Queensland certainly look as if they have the potential to score more points than NSW, and if their backs receive quality and quantity ball, that’s exactly what they’ll do.

Queensland will lose if…
Their starting 13 don’t establish a winning platform.

Looking at the Queensland line-up, the starting 13 are as good as it gets in rugby league. Tough, talented, experienced, and above all, winners. It’s a seriously impressive football team, and one of the best you’ll ever see.

However, I have some question marks over their bench.

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Michael Morgan, Josh McGuire, Matt Gillett, and Jacob Lillyman are good players, but there is a noticeable drop off from the run-on line-up to the Maroons’ reserves, and this is an area the Blues might be able to exploit.

Trent Merrin, Boyd Cordner, Dave Klemmer and Andrew Fifita form a formidable foursome on the NSW bench, and provide the Blues with a clear advantage over Queensland. When they enter the fray, there will be no drop-off in intensity, passion or ability for NSW, and tired Queensland players will be targeted.

That means the Maroons’ starters will need to ensure they captilise on their advantage of having a better starting line-up than NSW, because they should be wary of having to rely on their bench too much.

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