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State of Origin: Game 1 preview

Beau Scott didn't make the cut for Origin. (Image: AAP)
Roar Pro
26th May, 2015
4

Game 1 is nearly here, so let’s have a look at the players in each line up, starting with the shield holders:

NSW

Full State of Origin wrap:
>> ORIGIN 1 MATCH REPORT
>> FULL ORIGIN RESULTS
>> Live blog and highlights

1. Josh Dugan
He will be expected to carry back many metres. He is hard to tackle, but not renowned for ball movement. I am stunned that Matt Moylan wasn’t selected.

2. Daniel Tupou
He has hit form at the right time and should be having a heap of bombs put up for him against Will Chambers.

3. Michael Jennings
He is now an experienced player, but still can’t draw and pass the ball. It is often stated that he has a great combination with Mitchell Pearce, Boyd Cordner and Daniel Tupou, but I am not convinced, especially if Pearce plays on the right side.

4. Josh Morris
Another centre who cannot draw and pass. However, he is great defensively and has owned Greg Inglis in recent years. Injuries have taken a yard of pace off him.

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5. Will Hopoate
Surely picked on reputation alone. He is slow and has been ordinary for Parramatta. He will play a solid defensive game, and will need to against Darius Boyd.

6. Mitchell Pearce
Possibly the most maligned player in Origin history, but at least has been given a roving role rather than the playmaker. I still worry about him if NSW falls behind. A Rooster can’t change its feathers.

7. Trent Hodkinson
Here we have another player pummelled by the media. Even Bulldogs fans think he is in poor form. A further worry is his goalkicking, which has been precise but not accurate. This surely makes him favourite for man of the match.

8. Aaron Woods
A very good club player that now has to reach new heights, and I think he will. With so many boppers on the bench the starting forwards can give their guts early to get on top of Queensland.

9. Robbie Farah
He has been quiet for the Tigers, but there is no disputing his class. Heaven help NSW if he is injured. Needs a clever kick and chase game to take pressure off the halves.

10. James Tamou
Another bloke who needs to rise for the occasion. He needs to target his club mate Matt Scott and dominate him.

11. Beau Scott
He is the ‘bad guy’ for the Blues, and will be harassing Johnathan Thurston all game. In netball terms, he needs to zone him.

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12. Ryan Hoffman
Solid, reliable and with a little bit of ball play, he is the key for NSW go forward in the attacking half. He is a concern for the head bin in recent times.

13. Josh Jackson
The prototype Sate of Origin forward. Hopefully, he won’t be thrown into some utility role if a head knock comes into play.

14. Trent Merrin
A great bench choice, as he will raise the stakes as well as having that little step close to the line.

15. Boyd Cordner
Will be expected to slot in to complete a Roosters left-edge attack. Even though he is young, he has been there before.

16. David Klemmer
Another young gun who will be brought on to run big metres. He is one of those guys that can run 10 metres facing backwards with three blokes on him.

17. Andrew Fifita
Probably the key player for the Blues. He can destroy tiring defences, as long as he controls the offloads.

Queensland

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1. Billy Slater
I am certain he will play needled up, but he will be talking to his defence all game, and bob up just when he isn’t expected in attack.

2. Darius Boyd
He will run 25 metres and score two tries, thanks JT.

3. Greg Inglis
He is another player that looks wounded, but will lift against his home state. He struggles against Josh Morris but is just a dangerous as a decoy.

4. Justin Hodges
Built for Sate of Origin, he will size Jennings up for that once chance to step him and break through. He will be the first into a punch up (or a slap up).

5. Will Chambers
He will do his job, but will not see a lot of clean ball.

6. Johnathan Thurston
This kid has a lot of potential. I am sure he wet himself when the Blues left Josh Reynolds out. He will set up two potential tries for Boyd.

7. Cooper Cronk
Like a chartered accountant, he will have everything calculated to turn a profit for his side. He is always prepared to over call others when he sees the situation change.

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8. Matt Scott
He is the benchmark for props, and the opening clash will be critical for Queensland as their bench is lighter.

9. Cameron Smith
He will game manage for 80 minutes and never panic, knowing that a couple of tries are always in the bank. He will also slow down the Blues’ attack with the wrestle.

10. Nates Myles
The hard nut of the Maroons. His real value will be if he can get Klemmer or Fifita to lose their composure, and start throwing punches.

11. Aiden Guerra
He will be waiting for Boyd Cordner to face up to him, and give a little bit of Rooster love. Has been quiet in games previously.

12. Sam Thaiday
The first man to call for a hit up, and the third man whenever a fight is on. Nothing will change.

13. Corey Parker
A strong, reliable forward with a lot of offloads in him. He creates as much trouble for the opposition as the halves.

14. Michael Morgan (we think)
This is the big advantage the Maroons have. He can cover any contingency, be it injury or concussion. Whether he is up to the occasion, only time can tell.

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15. Josh Maguire
He won’t strike fear into anyone, but he won’t fear anyone either. A true one-eyed Maroon.

16. Matt Gillett
A like for like replacement for Guerra, and is a very dangerous hole runner.

17. Jacob Lillyman
A very experienced bloke who will do his job and get no credit for it. The perfect Origin player.

So, who will win? I expect Queensland to have the attacking advantage with so many legends in the spine. NSW will play a forwards dominated game, and their advantage is what the bench can bring.

Given that ANZ is traditionally a low-scoring game, and there is no series pressure yet, I expect NSW can hold out in a close game, something like 10 – 8.

The proviso that I have mentioned previously is the concussion rule. The Blues have taken a huge gamble on none of their spine being injured. If Robbie Farah, for example, goes off early a cricket score could happen.

Time will tell. And we will all certainly be reading about it, everywhere, on Thursday.

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