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And so, it happened. The all-time coaching games record holder, Michael Malthouse, is now watching from afar, just like the rest of us.
His 718 games coached record is really, really, unlikely to be broken, particularly in the current era of impatience and “full support of the board”.
Who’s close?
Rodney Eade: 322 games
Mark Thompson: 283 games
John Worsfold: 281 games
Mark Williams: 274 games
Terry Wallace: 247 games
Alistair Clarkson: 241 games
Paul Roos: 232 games
Ross Lyon: 202 games
Alistair Clarkson? Maybe. Ross Lyon? He sure does like, and is very good at, coaching football. Still, you’d have to think it’s very unlikely.
It’s a measure of how important Malthouse has been that since his coaching debut in 1984, 104 senior coaches have come and gone across the league. More than 100 other people coached an AFL club in the time Malthouse coached. That’s remarkable.
Mick’s gone now, replaced by John Barker in a caretaker capacity.
Wait a minute. Caretaker? Don’t you know what this means!? Caretaker Coach Theory!
Quick, let’s wrap last week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Prediction: Geelong def. Carlton by 66 points.
Actual: Geelong def. Carlton by 77 points.
Not much to say this one. It unfolded largely as expected, with the Cats getting out to a strong halftime lead despite a reasonable first quarter from the Blues, and it was all uphill/downhill from there.
Here’s this week’s forecast.
Carlton Blues versus Sydney Swans
Friday, May 29
Bounce: 7:50pm (EST)
Sydney Cricket Ground, NSW
As a man of logic, I like to use evidence to back up my claims wherever possible. Except when there’s a crazy wrinkle to a marquee game, like we have this week people!
Caretaker Coach Theory is in play. I repeat, Caretaker Coach Theory is. In. Play.
What is CCT? When an established AFL head coach is moved on in the middle of the season, a temporary replacement, generally a senior assistant coach, comes in to steward the team on the field, as the grown ups pull out their crayons and start doodling pictures of who they’d like to take over for reals.
Caretaker coaches win, like, a lot. And especially in their first game. Want proof? Well there’s, ummm…
Oh, Brendon Bolton! Last year, when coach Clarkson was laid low, Bolton stepped up and went 5-0, and the Hawks won the flag. Caretaker Coach Theory, man.
Does it apply if your team is dead last, and you’re playing a team with twice the percentage as you, on their home deck? Well we’re about to find out.
Of all the angles, I’m most interested to see how Sydney attack in this game. It’s a well worn fact that Carlton aren’t at their highest ebb on the field in 2015, and you could say the same – although with a different quantum attached, obviously – about the Swans.
Victory against the Hawks last weekend was in spite of, rather than because of, their offensive game plan. I dare say they will be looking to tonight, under lights, at home, against the worst side in the competition, for a bit of a tune-up.
And if Sydney get their groove on, it could get very ugly for the Blues.
Lance Franklin has had a much more meek sophomore season at the Swans than his debut, averaging a still-pretty-good 2.5 goals a game (down from almost 4.0). The rest of his stats are holding up well: 16 disposals, 3.5 inside 50s and four marks. It’s his scoreboard impact, to this point of the season, that’s letting him down.
But the big question tonight is: do Carlton crack a half ton on the scoreboard? Sydney are conceding 67 PPG against a strength of schedule of +5.3, while Carlton are putting up 73 against +2.6. Not a good combination if you’re a Blues forward.
They probably won’t get there, but I’m not game enough to slap the Bonus Prediction sticker on it. They’ve not gone so well this year. My full game forecast is for a Sydney Swans victory by 10 goals.
The CCT is worth a couple of goals, to be sure, but the gulf in skill is way larger than 12 points.
Also, this:
In: Andrew Carrazzo, Lachie Henderson, Andrew Walker, Nick Graham.
Out: Chris Judd, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Robert Warnock.
Maybe 10 goals isn’t enough.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?
Addendum: Is CCT a real thing?
Like a certain NBA analyst likes to say, it’s time to give the people what they want. Here’s the data on Caretaker Coach Theory, going back to 2009:
| Team | Year | Head Coach | Caretaker | Wins (HC) | Games (HC) | Wins (CT) | Games (CT) | Win First Up |
| Richmond | 2009 | T Wallace | J Rawlings | 2 | 11 | 3.5 | 11 | 1 |
| North Melbourne | 2009 | D Laidley | D Crocker | 4 | 8 | 3.5 | 14 | 0 |
| Port Adelaide | 2010 | M Williams | M Primus | 5 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Western Bulldogs | 2011 | R Eade | P Williams | 7 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Adelaide | 2011 | N Craig | M Bickley | 4 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Melbourne | 2011 | D Bailey | T Viney | 7.5 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Port Adelaide | 2012 | M Primus | G Hocking | 5 | 18 | 0.5 | 4 | 0 |
| Essendon | 2013 | J Hird | S Goodwin | 14 | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brisbane | 2013 | M Voss | M Harvey | 8 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Melbourne | 2013 | M Neeld | N Craig | 1 | 11 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Hawthorn | 2014 | A Clarkson | B Bolton | 6 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Carlton | 2015 | M Malthouse | J Barker | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | ? |
| % HC: | 39% | % CT: | 38% | 5/11 Wins | ||||