The QTC Oaks Day is one of my favourite race days, probably because I have had some decent results from a betting perspective over the years.
Doomben racecourse is staging it for the first time (from memory), and although the fields are slightly smaller than usual, the races look ultra competitive.
Because of that there is some nice value to be found. The weather should be typical of Queensland at this time of year: pristine! The track should be rated a Good surface.
R1: Bracken Ridge Tavern The Phoenix 1350m (two-year-old)
If you have seen the replay, or viewed the race live, it is hard not to have been impressed by the performance of Sagaronne at the Gold Coast.
She sat three deep the whole race and rearward. \ On the turn she became unbalanced and looked to be dropping out altogether. Somehow she rallied, put on the after burners, and cut down the leader to win comfortably.
For this race she has blinkers added and it’s a good sign that Blake Shinn has been engaged to ride her. Her Dam Lasoron had a stack of ability and won the Group 3 Doomben Roses in 2007 beating Eskimo Queen who went on to win the QTC Oaks and Coolmore Classic at Rosehill.
She is good value at close to double figures in this race.
The Chris Waller trained Press Statement is the interesting runner given she is a half sister to Pressday who swept all before him at this carnival as a two year old in 2010 (Champagne Classic, Sires Produce and TJ Smith Stakes). She won on debut in Sydney, and can only improve, but she has drawn wide.
1. Sagaronne
2. Bring A Secret
3. Handfast
R2: Ascend Sales Trophies Lightning Handicap 1050m
This looks a tough race but I have settled on Seeking More for shrewd trainer Kelso Wood, who has had many a success at this track over the years.
His was the run of the race in The Bribie Handicap at the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago, after drawing wide and covering ground. He has a much better barrier in this race than at his past two starts, and he looks to be one of only a few horses who can settle behind an expected hot pace.
Territory is the class runner being Group placed at Weight For Age. It’s his first run for a new stable and he has been in quite a few.
1. Seeking More
2. Territory
3. Thinkhesaurus
R3: James Boag’s Premium Spear Chief Handicap 1350m
Gai Waterhouse has had an outstanding Winter Carnival so far with the likes of Pornichet, Bohemian Lily and Najoom winning by very big margins.
Here she has Frespanol entered and he is very hard to go past after an excellent second in the Scone Cup 15 days ago. His acceleration in the straight that day was very surprising, and it’s still hard to come to terms with the fact he got beaten.
He was in front by one stride before the line and after, but that’s racing! He should go close to making amends here in a race where most horses need to improve on their last outing.
1. Frespanol
2. Black Jet
3. Banca Mo
R4: Pages Event Equipment Eagle Farm Cup 2200m
This looks to be the toughest race of the day and it doesn’t help that Chris Waller trains five of the seven runners engaged. All except Index Linked are a little down on form, and the he is actually the lowest rated of the Quintet.
I’m going to go with the outsider of the field Epingle. Her run in the Doomben Cup wasn’t that much inferior to Moriarty, Foreteller and Hawkspur. She came back in distance that day after beating Index Linked here at this distance prior. This is a similarly small field, and Hugh Bowman returns to the saddle after not riding her last start.
Note that Foreteller has a Tongue Tie On first time and that may help him find his best form.
1. Epingle
2. Moriarty
3. Foreteller
R5: Magic Millions QTC Cup 1200m
Another small field but super competitive race. I’m perhaps trying to use too much weights logic here in selecting Office Bearer, but his odds are so generous I’m prepared to chance my arm.
That’s A Good Idea recently beat a horse called Target In Sight by less than a length with a 1.5kg weight advantage. Ball Of Muscle had very little to spare over That’s A Good Idea when beating him with a 2.5kg weight advantage in early January.
But Office Bearer beat home Target In Sight last Spring down the Flemington straight by one length, with a concession of only 0.5kg.
Here Office Bearer has 3kg less weight than BOM, and 4kg less than TAGI, which might suggest he is very well in. And his first run here in the Bribie Handicap at the Sunshine Coast two weeks ago had merit. $13 is good odds for him in this race.
Kuro is probably the one to beat, but I’m not fond of seeing a three-year-old carrying similar weights to the older horses in a handicap race.
1. Office Bearer
2. Kuro
3. El Roca
R6: T Mittys Bright Shadow Handicap 1200m (Fillies and Mares)
This is a typically tough fillies and mares race to assess. Bonete looks good odds at around $7, considering her victory over Najoom at 1200m two starts back. That filly looked a world beater when winning here last week. This mare then came back in distance and ran a respectable race when third over 1100m at Rosehill.
Back to 1200m here, and although her best form is on wet tracks, it isn’t conclusive that she isn’t as capable on firmer going. She was scratched midweek at Canterbury, on what would have been a slow track, to try her luck here.
Dublin Lass the one to beat on form, but her price is short enough at present.
1. Bonete
2. Dublin Lass
3. Slots
R7: Treasury Casino and Hotel QTC Oaks 2400m (3 year-old fillies)
This race has drawn together an excellent field and it’s an intriguing contest at Doomben for the first time. I’ve gone looking for value again and selected Rustic Melody at better than $20 on an each way basis.
She should have won last start in Sydney when runner up to High Midnight who has won since. She beat home Redoubtable Heart that day, and it should have nearly won the Grand Prix Stakes here last week. That’s a similar formline to Sebrina who is currently less than $10 in this race.
This filly might just appreciate a firm track given she hasn’t raced on one since a five-length win at Kembla before the Adrian Knox Stakes. Her run in the AJC Oaks wasn’t too bad either, and the 200m less of this race might be to her advantage.
Like my first race selection, her Dam Laurinel Argie was an excellent racemare in Queensland. She won the Group 2 Prime Ministers Cup at the Gold Coast when it used to be a 2400m race.
Bohemian Lily (see Queensland Oaks- Gilding The Lily) looks the one to beat with the Gai Waterhouse ‘bone and muscle’ on display. Rarely do her stayers not perform on grand final day, when they have hit form in the Semi Final (Doomben Roses). She will be the one leading them a merry dance up front.
Winx looks very, very hard to beat if she repeats her win in the Sunshine Coast Guinea, which was an exhilarating effort.
Her well-bred stablemate Ballet Suite has to go into Quinella’s and Trifectas, and the X-Factor horse might be Victorian filly Ungrateful Ellen who has had no luck at her last two starts in Adelaide. To say that the ride on her last start was poor would be an understatement.
1. Rustic Melody
2. Bohemian Lily
3. Winx
Editor’s note: Bohemian Lily has been scratched!
R8: Nuturf Queensland Day 1200m (three-year-old Colts and Geldings)
Here is another very open three-year-old race which we seem to get at every major carnival in Australia.
I Blackbooked the Victorian horse Durendal two starts ago at Caulfield when he ran faster time than the older horses did at the same distance. He then won again, and comes here in peak form.
He is by the same sire as this year’s Golden Slipper winner Vancouver, and is a half brother to the extremely well performed Flamberge (Goodwood Handicap winner two weeks ago), Curtana, Joyeuse and the ill-fated but extremely talented Sunburnt Land. What a great producer his broodmare Razor Blade has been!
Peggy Jean has to be respected as a new performer for the Snowden camp. They have just been impossible to stop in the past three to four months, and she is a filly with very good ability.
Cantbuybetter is the interesting runner coming from the in form stable of Ben Currie at Toowoomba. He is 4/4 thus far in a short career, has been gelded before this race, and Hugh Bowman has taken the ride.
1. Durendal
2. Peggy Jean
3. Cantbuybetter
Summing up, the best bet would appear to be Frespanol, but his odds certainly reflect that. Durendal should run very well in the last race, and I’m quite excited particularly about Sagaronne in the firstrace, and Office Bearer in Race 5.
That is not to mention a very competitive Oaks field which is definitely the high point of the day. I’m looking forward to some excellent racing under some typically blue Queensland skies.
It doesn’t get much better than this!
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