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With only three rounds of the 2015 Super Rugby rugby Season to be completed and ten teams still in the running for a semi-finals spot, this weekend’s matches are crucial.
The Hurricanes are clear New Zealand conference and overall Super Rugby competition leaders on 57 points. They come against the Crusaders who only just fell short to the Waratahs last week, and are in a must win situation. For this reason, the Crusaders might just sneak away with a win.
While 27 competition points separate the Hurricanes from the tenth-placed Rebels, there is only 11 points that separate the Rebels from the second-placed Waratahs.
I think we can safely say that the Rebels’ loss last week has sealed their fate, although it is still mathematically possible for them to make the top six, depending on other teams losing. However, they have the Sharks in South Africa, which is a far different proposition to playing them at AAMI Park in Melbourne, followed by the Bulls and the Force at home.
The Crusaders’ game against the Hurricanes will be a cracker. A loss tonight will certainly see the Crusaders out the back door, with the Blues in Auckland and the Brumbies in Canberra.
The Brumbies versus Bulls game at GIO stadium in Canberra is also a very important one for both sides. If the Waratahs fall against the Lions in South Africa, which could happen, a win tonight could see the Brumbies regain a slender lead as the Australian conference leaders, with the Force in Perth followed by the Crusaders at home.
The Waratahs are without Will Skelton who just keeps getting better and better, and would be extremely valuable against the physical Lions side. Until the two-week suspension of Skelton and the four-week suspension of hooker Latu, I would have been inclined to favour the Waratahs for this match, after their game against the Crusaders last week.
The Lions are desperate as they sit outside the top six by one point and are playing the Waratahs at home, which is a huge advantage in South Africa. This is a must-win game for the Lions for they have a bye in Round 18 so in effect only have two games left compared to the other serious contenders who have three
The Lions will seek to exploit Waratahs scrum and the lineout, the strength of which has been weakened by the suspensions.
The Stormers currently lead the South African conference on 38 points but are fighting it out with the Lions (36) and the Bulls (35) to maintain that leadership. The Stormers should win their match against the Cheetahs in Newland stadium in Cape Town this weekend.
The Highlanders and the Chiefs will be another absorbing spectacle this weekend in Invercargill, once famously described in 1965 by rock singer Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones as the “arsehole of the world”.
Whether or not one agrees with that not too flattering description, there is no doubt that Invercargill will come alive with this match. The Chiefs are still a dark horse for the title this year and I believe they will start firing on all cylinders as they come into the business end of the season.
The Highlanders will put up one hell of a fight as they only sit one point behind the Chiefs, but may just lack the firepower to get home.
A loss to either side is not fatal to their semi-final chances but make it that little bit harder, should the teams below them pull off some wins.
The Force play the Reds in a dead rubber, although I would expect the Reds to win this match.
Excluding bonus points, on my predictions, this is how the table may look after Round 16
1 Hurricanes 57
2 Brumbies 42
3 Stormers 42
4 Chiefs 48
5 Highlanders43
6 Waratahs 41
7 Lions 40
8 Bulls 35
9 Crusaders 35
10 Rebels 30
11 Sharks 29
12 Cheetahs 20
13 Blues 20
14 Reds 21
15 Force 15