The biggest surprise of the 2015 MotoGP World Championship so far, particularly in the last few races, has been Honda’s struggles.
Marc Marquez, who dominated the 2014 season, trails championship leader Valentino Rossi by 49 points, and down in fifth spot in the championship after just six races.
Then there’s the lack of clean weekends, injuries and bike problems – especially with the rear of the Honda RC213V.
What is going wrong?
The vast majority of the problems stem from the bike, and the lack of rear grip being generated, as well as too much torque from the Honda engine, which means the Bridgestone rear tyre is good for one qualifying lap, not good for a race distance run.
Consequently the Honda riders are relying more on the front tyre, or front-end of the bike, to produce the necessary speed to keep up or stay at the front. This wears the front tyre out, and then leaves the riders vulnerable to front-end crashes or being unable to attack or defend effectively.
This is what Marquez pointed out after crashing out of the Italian Grand Prix at Mugello.
“We were up into second place after four laps, but when the tyre grip went down we had a similar problem to before, with the tyre sliding on corner entry. I was on the limit and when you are pushing at the maximum sometimes things happen like they did today”, he said.
In an interview before the Mugello race weekend, Honda Racing Corporation (HRC) vice-president Shuhei Nakamoto explained the problems being experienced at Honda so far this season:
“Marc’s complaint is that there is too much torque or too much power, this we can manage! If Marc was complaining that there was not enough power, then it’s the opposite: we cant…
“There are several reasons we could only win one race so far. We have several ideas we already applied in Mugello, and we have another idea for the next two or three races… I cannot explain the details of this! [laughs]”.
So with Honda in a foreign position, can Marquez come back and win the world championship?
Many people would say no, especially with the form of Yamaha, and Ducati, as well as how much effort actually needs to be put into turning the fortunes around.
However I have two relatively recent examples where great riders have come back to lead the world championship very late in the season.
Marquez was in a worse predicament in the 2011 Moto2 World Championship. After just six races he trailed championship leader, and eventual champion, Stefan Bradl by 82 points. Eight races and eight consecutive podiums later (six of them wins), Marquez was leading the championship by a single point, with just three races remaining.
After that, Marquez lost the championship lead, despite securing a ninth consecutive podium, and then had the big practice crash in Malaysia, which effectively handed the world championship to Bradl.
The second example involves Valentino Rossi. In his third season with his current team (Yamaha), and coming off a dominant season, Rossi had a very difficult start to the 2006 MotoGP World Championship. After six races, Rossi was fifth in the championship, trailing Loris Capirossi and eventual champion Nicky Hayden by 34 points.
Just 10 races later, and after Hayden’s first and only retirement of the season in Portugal, Rossi was leading the championship by eight points with one race remaining.
In the last race of the season, at Valencia, Rossi crashed early in the race, and could only finish 13th, while Hayden cruised home to finish third, and claimed his first and so far only world championship.
While these examples didn’t result in world championships, they were two great comebacks from a tough early position to become true championship contenders.
If he can produce similar results to that comeback run in 2011 Marquez can win the world championship.
But if Honda can’t improve the bike, no matter how good Marquez is – and he very much at the top of his game right now – there is nothing he can do.
But if the RC213V is competitive, you can never rule this man out until it is mathematically or physically impossible.
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