Doomben Racecourse stages it’s first edition of the Stadbroke Handicap, which has drawn together an excellent field of 16 runners.

I’m not sure it is a vintage Straddie, but it’s hard to deny that it’s an open race, and the barrier draw has made it all the more intriguing. Once again we have a very good horse declared as first emergency, this time the favourite. I have said enough on this subject over the past month or so but it continues to amaze me.

Thankfully, she will get a start with the scratching of Lord of the Sky (who didn’t enjoy his 18 hour road trip).

I don’t want to get too involved in the history of the race in this preview because of the Doomben factor, but a few statistics might be of some relevance:

• 9 of the last 12 winners started at Doomben prior, and six of those came via the Doomben 10000 at Weight For Age (none won that race and only two placed);
• 7 of the last 10 winners have been aged 5 or older and four of the last seven winners have been six years old;
• Having said that three year olds have won four of the last 12, and the Stradbroke has always been a good race for a quality three-year-old;
• All of the last 12 winners have dropped in weight 2kg or more, with the average weight drop being 4.1kg in that period;
• 5 of the last 7 winners have started $21 or better. The average winning price over the past 12 years is $15.88.

• It might be worth noting that the last 13 Doomben 10000 winners have started between barriers 1-7 at this track. That might not be so relevant given this is a handicap not a Weight For Age contest, but it is still worth keeping in mind.

Race tempo

At face value we should have a similar fast tempo to what we saw in the Doomben 10000, two weeks ago. That led to the backmarkers completely dominating the race.

Time For War led, but isn’t here, and without Lord Of The Sky as a likely leader, Hot Snitzel might make a bid for the front from a wide barrier.

Srikandi has drawn ideally to again sit close to the lead, while Fontelina probably has to go forward from a very wide draw to be a realistic chance. Temple Of Boom may also venture forward from a better barrier than he had two weeks ago, remembering that he co-lead this race last year with the eventual winner River Lad.

When the pace has been fast at Doomben recently the backmarkers have been highly advantaged (Charlie Boy, Boban. Even those sitting just behind a fast pace have been advantaged at Doomben in the past but not so at the moment. Conversely when the leaders haven’t gone too fast in recent races, they have completely dominated, (Najoom, Mohave).

My best guess is this race will be run at a fast pace, as most Group 1 sprints are during the Winter carnival are. Therefore a midfield type or get back type horse is more likely to win.

Analysis

1. Boban – Weights don’t favour him historically, but the barrier does, and his second up record is as good as his first up one. Glynn Schofield knows him intimately (7 wins from 16 rides), and maybe his runs earlier this year can be merely put down to him not enjoying the summer months (0/6 all told).

He has won a couple of top class handicap races conceding weight, and note that he did win the Emirates at Flemington in 2013 giving 4.5kg to Smokin Joey. That horse only meets him 3.5kg better in this race. He is almost certainly overpriced at $11 given he is a four time Group 1 winner.

Despite being poorly weighted against a few horses out of the 10000, he will be fitter for that run, and he has drawn a better barrier that many coming out of that race. He could become the first horse since Spedito in 1975 to win the Doomben 10000 and Stradbroke double.

2. Hot Snitzel – Has the job ahead of him from a wide barrier given seven of his eight wins have been at the shorter distance of 1200m. Hard to see him getting an economical run in the race, but he is in career best form, which has coincided with a change of stable to Peter and Paul Snowden.

He could have run in the WFA Doomben 10000, but was perhpas wisely freshened and kept for this. The stable might be thinking now that perhaps the best laid plans have gone astray, having drawn so wide in the race. So might Blake Shinn who surely had the choice of rides between this horse and the stablemate Charlie Boy?

3. Sacred Star – He had a bit of a training setback before the BTC Cup four weeks ago, which probably didn’t help when he had to resume over 1350m in the Doomben 10000. He seemed to race a bit fresh in that race being much closer to the speed in the early stages than he might otherwise have been.

Maybe no surprise that he didn’t finish off as well as he could have, given the capitulation of the on pace horses in that race. He is fitter for that run and with 55kg he has a much better chance in this race I feel. And the barrier is perfect (as it was last time), to settle midfield and come with a well timed run. His trainer seems confident, and his early $10 price is about right.

4. Smokin’ Joey – He did nothing in the Goodwood last start in Adelaide, and has done very little in ten starts on clockwise tracks (0/10), eight of those in Queensland in Winter time. He is very hard to recommend on that, but he is an enigmatic horse going around at a big price. He is $41 in this race, and two of his last three wins have started at that price. And he was only 2L away in this race last year when it wasn’t run to suit, so his chances aren’t completely hopeless in this. Jockey Chris Symons has ridden him three times for two wins, and a fourth beaten one length. That’s a positive.

5. Generalife – looked to be one of the top winning chances in this until he came up with barrier 21. On balance he should have won the Doomben Ten Thousand had he not been 3-4 wide for half of the race. The thing is he got himself into that predicament, because he didn’t break the barriers fast enough. And a look at his record isn’t pretty in that regard. His winning strike rate would certainly be a lot better, had he not missed the start on several occasions. Where does he get too from the outside barrier is the question? Heaven knows, but at least he will get galloping room early, and make a bid for victory a bit later than he had to in the Ten Thousand. He is beautifully weighted back down to 54kg, and he should be fitter for the last run. A lot will depend on the quality of ride, and how fast they go up front. Definitely a winning hope.

6. Temple Of Boom – has again drawn wide, as he did in the Ten Thousand two weeks ago. He ran second in this race last year, but did seem to be in better form and the race was run to suit. It’s a bit harder to get keen this year from that barrier, and a likley fast tempo.

7. Lord Of The Sky – Scratched.

8. Charlie Boy – has been the sprinting find of the carnival thus far winning the BRC Sprint and then just pipping Generalife for second place in the Doomben Ten Thousand two weeks ago, both those efforts at this track and distance. That has coincided with a change of stable to Peter and Paul Snowden, and a Gelding operation before the start of this preparation. He drew poorly last time and had to go back in the race, but this time he has an ideal barrier and can probably sit midfield.

Blake Shinn has ridden at his past two starts but now jumps onto Hot Snitzel. Craig Williams is aboard instead, so the horse doesn’t lose much in regard to rider skills. He looks very hard to beat meeting Boban 4kg better for that last start defeat, and it looks as though he might start favourite. Probably a deserved one too, and he has to go into all Quinellas and Trifectas.

9. Knoydart – really did ‘savage’ the line in the Doomben 10000 when he flew home from last. He was beaten 3.1 lengths by Boban and Charlie Boy that day but like the latter horse he has drawn a lot better for this. His pattern is to get back though so not sure the barrier is that big an advantage to him. An interesting stat with him is an inability to win a race with less than 14 days between runs (0-6/10), whereas with 15 days or more his record reads a lot better (5-3/14). It’s now 11 starts since he has won a race though and he hasn’t won beyond 1300m. It’s hard to be too critical though, as his last run was excellent, and it was off a 14 day break. Has to be considered at a least a place chance despite those couple of negatives.

10. Big Money– was found wanting in the 10000 from an awkward barrier, and he might not be going well enough to trouble this field from a very similar barrier. He might also be a better horse at 1200m or less in the top grade. The positive for him is a big weight drop off his past two starts which could assist him because he isn’t a very big horse. It might also help him to compete better at this distance. He has a 50per cent winning strike rate that you can’t completely ignore, but he might actually be a better chance of running a place at big odds.

11. Black Heart Bart – Didn’t get a lot of luck at the start, and at crucial stages in the Goodwood handicap at Morphettville last start. He also probably ended up in the wrong part of the track in the straight out wide, where it seemed hard to make ground on the day. He has a terrific record at sprint distances 1400m and below (7-4/13), but has drawn out wide in this race, his first right handed track start.

It’s also a big assignment for his jockey Glen Smith who I don’t think has ridden here before. Notably all his wins have been in smaller fields of 12 or less, and he is 0/4 in bigger fields than that. Perhaps though his barrier might assist him because he better suited with some galloping room than the cramped environment he found himself in last start. I don’t doubt he is good enough, but perhaps the negative outweigh his positives. It’s possible he might drift to $9 or $10 in the market though, and he would represent some value at that quote.

12. Fontelina – seems totally out of form at the moment and is lucky to be in the field, with perhaps better chances languishing as reserve runners. Like in the Doomben 10000 he has drawn out very wide and I just can’t make a reasonable case for him.

13. El Roca – Probably didn’t do enough last week in the QTC Cup, but he has only had two runs in the past 12 months so his fitness have been questionable for both those runs. He gets no such excuse this week, and he does boast a Group 1 placing in the Randwick Guineas off a seven day break. He prefers dry tracks, but oddly is yet to win a race beyond 1200m. He has drawn a great barrier and a 5.5kg weight drop won’t hurt. If one was to win the race at big odds it might be him, but it’s hard to pick him on recent form.

14. Srikandi – was slightly disappointing in the Doomben 10000, but again has drawn well and a Tongue Tie goes on for this race. Her trainer says she has been set for this race all preparation, and slackened off her training before the 10000 race to rectify her barrier manners (after a slow getaway in the BTC Cup). He reckons she wasn’t as fit as she could have been last start, and will take benefit from that run. You would have to be forgiving, and give her the benefit of the doubt in this class of race. I can’t quite do that, but I can understand that others might. If the pace isn’t too hot she could be the surprise packet.

15. Fast ‘N’ Rocking – his overall strike rate has improved since being Gelded (3/11) but he still doesn’t win enough races, and it’s doubtful he is capable of beating these. He might also be better off over 1200m than the 1350m of this race. Craig Newitt has his first ride on the horse which might be the only positive.

16. Delectation – Reminds me a little of Sniper’s Bullet who won this race in 2007 as a three year old. This horse is the same age and comes off a similar placing with a big weight last start. He did it against older horses though, whereas SB ran against his own age prior. He has drawn the same barrier as last time, but could get some cover in a bigger field. He definitely has the class having group 1 placed in the Cooolmore Stakes last Spring behind Brazen Beau. That horse would undoubtedly be favourite in this race with the 52kg allotted to this horse. Trainer Chris Waller knows how to peak them on the big day, and it should be taken into account that this horse had 42 days between runs last start. Glen Boss takes the reins and there are similarities between this horse and the recent Doncaster winner Kermadec.. Both are three year olds who wear Crossover Nosebands, both represent a first time ride for Boss, and both ran third at their prior start in preparation for a Group 1 race. If there are negatives, it would be the distance (better at 1200m?) and just whether he is better on a wet track. The Coolmore run was on a dry track though so I tend to dismiss the latter point. Definitely a winning chance, and he is backable odds at $9 or so.

17. Lumosty – Gets a run which boosts the race significantly and she is the current favourite. Her overall times and sectionals in winning her last two starts suggest she is up to winning this and her luxury weight of 50.5kg is a winning one. Having said that she has drawn wide and this is her first time on a right handed track, and the first time she has ventured out of Melbourne.

Her last two wins have also been down the straight at Flemington so it’s hard to say how significant they are to this race. Linton managed to win this race in 2013 from a win in Adelaide (left handed), but it was his second career start on a right handed track, and it’s interesting to note that the mother of this mare (Luminous Eyes) only won one race from eight starts in the clockwise direction, including two failures in Brisbane. She won her only start on a left handed track. Maybe that’s not overly relevant but it’s an interesting point all the same.

She is a great winning chance, but not quite sure I would rate her on top.

Conclusion:
This is a very hard race to assess but I’m inclined to go with the Chris Waller trained pair of BOBAN and DELECTATION as top picks, and I will be backing both. Given the latter drops 7kg in weight, I’m inclined to go with him as top pick, and maybe if this horse had run in the Ten Thousand he would have won?

Quite significant that nothing else was able to beat Boban in that race, so Delectation has the X-Factor formline coming in. Historically he also looks a very sound bet, as does five year old Sacred Star from his good barrier, and (albeit) unplaced run in the Doomben 10000.

Charlie Boy, Generalife, and Black Heart Bart all look to be some of the better winning chances, along with Lumosty.

Hot Snitzel would be the fifth 6 year-old Gelding to win in the past eight years if he were to be successful.

My top four – Note I had Charlie Boy in my top four until Lumosty got the run!
1. Delectation
2. Boban
3. Sacred Star
4. Lumosty