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Pointing out Collingwood’s seven wins had come against the bottom seven was a popular line this week, serving as a reminder that the Pies’ top-four status mightn’t be such a grand thing.
But there are other clubs with records being propped up – or pulled down, for that matter – courtesy of the fixture.
And for some lucky clubs, the rub of the draw is set to turn their way shortly.
With each club having notched up 10 matches prior to this weekend, and with the bye rounds now under way, it’s an opportune time to look at where each club is at.
For this, the fixture actually offers quite a bit of insight.
The run so far
Collingwood, indeed, did have the best draw prior to Round 11, with their first 10 opponents racking up a mere 36 wins between them to start the season.
The next best draw was that of the Greater Western Sydney Giants, with 42 wins among their opposition. The West Coast Eagles weren’t far behind on a 43-win record.
The Pies very much looked like an outlier, though, with eight clubs coming in between 42 and 46 wins.
Flipping it around, the toughest draw was a title owned by Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs. For each, their opponents won a combined 60 games.
Port Adelaide and North Melbourne, going into Round 11, had each faced up to sides with 57 wins.
All four of these clubs had been noted for being up and down at different points this season. Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
The run home
So what’s going to change? For one, things get easier for the Bulldogs. Across their remaining 12 games, the scheduled opponents have managed just 45 wins between them. That means on average, each week they will face a team with 3.75 wins from the opening 10 rounds (not quite on the level of Collingwood’s 3.6 from games already played, but still a nice advantage).
Scarily, the next-easiest draw belongs to… uh, that’s right, Fremantle.
The Dockers are set to face up to sides with a combined 53 wins to their name. Just when you thought they were ready to be brought back a notch, too.
North Melbourne (54 wins) and Brisbane Lions (55) also have a more comfortable run at it.
On the other end, it’s St Kilda with the toughest draw from Round 11 onward. The sides they face won a combined 67 games in the opening rounds.
Collingwood are next with 66 wins, followed by the Gold Coast Suns (65), West Coast Eagles (64) and Richmond (64).
Conclusions
While the diplomatic response is to say Collingwood’s true test comes in the next month or so – the Giants, Dockers (away), Hawks, Power (away) and Eagles await – here’s a less diplomatic answer: they won’t be sticking around in the top four.
The Giants will test them this week but even if the Pies can hang on for a little bit, we’re going to see a correction.
Fremantle? Well, you can probably lock them in for a minor premiership. After last week, the Swans are just one game behind – and ahead on percentage – but there are not going to be many opportunities for a repeat of what Richmond did last week.
The Swans, for what it’s worth, have a solid run home, with 60 wins from their future opponents to date. But when you throw in the fact Freo achieved what they did in the first nine weeks with a tougher draw, it looks like an edge.
Could the Western Bulldogs make the finals? Let’s not rule it out yet. They have actually been playing good footy, save for a few poor weeks lately. To find out they did that with the equal-toughest draw and now have a run home that’s the envy of the competition, suddenly finals aren’t such a crazy idea.
As for the wooden spoon race, there’s not much to conclude other than the Suns might actually be a legitimate chance, but Carlton’s draw comes in as only three games easier and the Saints – promising as they have been in patches – might have to dig deep.
Toughest draw so far
(Based on opposition wins Rounds 1-10)
1. Western Bulldogs – 60
1. Melbourne – 60
3. North Melbourne – 57
3. Port Adelaide – 57
5. Carlton – 55
6. Fremantle Dockers – 54
6. Geelong Cats – 54
6. Gold Coast Suns – 54
9. Essendon – 52
10. Sydney Swans – 46
10. Adelaide – 46
10. Hawthorn – 46
10. Richmond – 46
10. St Kilda – 46
10. Brisbane Lions – 46
16. West Coast Eagles – 43
17. GWS Giants – 42
18. Collingwood – 36
Easiest draw from Round 11 onward
(Based on opposition wins Rounds 1-10)
1. Western Bulldogs – 45
2. Fremantle Dockers – 53
3. North Melbourne – 54
4. Brisbane Lions – 55
5. GWS Giants – 57
6. Melbourne – 58
6. Adelaide – 58
8. Sydney Swans – 60
9. Essendon – 61
9. Hawthorn – 61
11. Port Adelaide – 62
11. Carlton – 62
13. Geelong Cats – 63
14. Richmond – 64
14. West Coast Eagles – 64
16. Gold Coast Suns – 65
17. Collingwood – 66
18. St Kilda – 67