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Welcome to ‘Rugby State of Origin’ Game 2! The Reds fly an hour south from their home defeat, intent to avenge their Round 4 beating, and potentially disrupt the Waratahs final position. Join us here on The Roar from 7:40pm (ADST) for live scores and updates.
This is the second interstate game, pitting the second ranked team versus the 12th-ranked team.
Contributing to the Waratahs’ top ranking are 22 tries from phase one plays. The Reds’ defence is a major factor in their poor standing, conceding the second highest tries – totalling 22.
While the Reds have the second highest average time in possession of the pill, the Waratahs have the second highest number of carries, defenders beaten and offloads. After Richard Graham’s two years as the Reds top coach, his team has delivered the second lowest number of points in the competition.
In their set piece, the Waratahs welcomes two returning players. Their number two, Tatafu Polota-Nau, is back in action after a concussion-related break. Big Will Skelton, is back in action after a two-week suspension following a two-man tackle in their 32 to 22 win versus the Crusaders.
While the Reds have a four to one advantage in lineouts, the scrums will be an interesting battle. In Game 1, the Waratahs starved the Reds from possession by winning the scrum battle.
The wily Benn Robinson delivered a Super Rugby level scrum lesson to Sam Talakai. Today, the equally wily Greg Holmes is tasked to manage him, with the form scrummaging locks and flankers in assistance.
More critical is phase play. In game one, the Reds had more ball, more territory and more time in the redzone. But the Waratahs clocked two times more metres and offloads with three times the clean breaks. This was delivered by the best offloaders in the game this year: Israel Folau and Kurtley Beale. Big Willy is fourth for the entire tournament.
At that time, three of the Reds tight five were missing. Today, Wallabies Rob Simmons, James ‘Big Kev’ Horwill and join potential 2015 Wallaby tight head prop Greg Homes to battle against the team who punished the Reds.
Farewell Reds Players
This is the last game that Horwill and scrumhalf Genia will play for the Reds. This may in fact be their last Super Rugby game, forever. It may be the same for Quade Cooper, if he decides to move to France after this match. If they do not make the cut for the Wallabies, this could also be their last in Australia.
Wallaby matchup
But today, it is state versus state. Big Kev Horwill will pitch against Big Willy Skelton to create time and space for their attackers, and to wreak some maul havoc.
Playmakers Quade Cooper, James O’Connor and Karmichael Hunt will pitch against Michael Foley and Kurtley Beale to broaden their team’s attack window and rip at defensive weaknesses. Their kicking form will also be carefully measured, as they all have been found wanting.
Will Genia’s multi-facted ruckbase and scrumbase ploys will pitch against Nick Phipps’ lightning fast clearances and support play.
A distinct point of difference between the two sides this season, are the centres. Playmaker Kurtley Beale and stalwart Adam Ashley Cooper will pitch against midfield monster Samu Kerevi and playmaker Karmichael Hunt.
I suspect the Waratahs backrow will come in to help, especially from Jacques Potgieter. Adam Thompson will also be ready to expose any loose midfield contests.
A delight highlight will be lightning Liam Gill and lightning Michael Hooper squaring off mano-a-mano on everything seven.
If Hooper and his colleagues do their work properly, then their finishers will go for the kill – in the form of Israel Folau and ‘Big T’ Taqele Naiyaravoro. Correspondingly, if the Reds backs and pack work as one team instead of ‘backs versus pack’ then they may turn their possession into winning points.
While the season is over for the Reds, there is a lot at stake tonight for players and state pride. The bookies believe it is a foregone conclusion with heavy odds against the Reds. If they are to win, the Queenslanders must be able to stop the Waratahs rolling thunder and keep their deadly backs out of their redzone. The Western Force did it, two times. Can the Reds finally do it, after two years of trying?
Join us for live scores of the Waratahs versus the Reds to find out.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.