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Royal Ascot 2015: Queen Anne Stakes - Able Friend vs Solow - full preview

15th June, 2015
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Frankel shows he is the world's best at Royal Ascot in 2012 (AFP).
Roar Guru
15th June, 2015
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1509 Reads

What a way to start the Royal Ascot Carnival! A famous race with a regal title, this is almost certainly going to be a right royal battle between possibly the best milers horse racing has to offer.

Topping the list of winning candidates are the French horse Solow, and Hong Kong champion Able Friend. Both are approaching legendary status, coming into the race off six straight wins apiece.

Both are five year olds, and both are geldings. Only six horses aged five and over have won this race in the past 35 years, and none have been geldings. It would he great to see that spell broken this year, and the betting market indicates it is likely.

Solow (career record 9-3/14) is a grey freak of a horse from the astute Freddy Head stable in France. He proved himself on the world stage in late March winning the Dubai Turf (1800m) at Meydan by 4.5L in scintillating fashion. It was arrogance on a grand scale with jockey Maxime Guyon doing his best Linda Blair from The Exorcist impression over the concluding stages.

This is a horse who can take up any position in a race, and he is a winner of a right-handed straight track mile race at Deauville in France, similar to what he faces at Ascot. He led that day but came from a midfield position in Dubai.

He handles all track conditions, so there doesn’t appear to be a weakness that can be readily exposed. Perhaps coming back in distance to a mile off two 1800m races is one, but a likely battle of attrition is likely to suit him more than some others.

Able Friend (career record 12-5/18) needs little introduction to those who follow Hong Kong horse racing. He started his career unheralded, with two starts for a win and a placing. He was then transferred to the Hong Kong stable of John Moore and hasn’t looked back, despite an initial defeat over 1200m. He is virtually unbeatable at 1400-1600m (10-2/12), and at almost 600kg has the physical presence to intimidate many an opponent.

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He has a Rolls Royce engine that is a sight to behold when is in full flight, exemplified last December in the Internationally represented Hong Kong mile where he monstered his opposition.

Since then he has won another three races very comfortably and has no peer in his homeland.

This is his toughest test to date, in a strange land, and on an undulating track which has no turn. All his wins have been on the smaller circuit at Sha Tin, with the guidance of a home turn and a much less testing terrain.

Given his large physique though, a straight race may mean he is better balanced, and his power can be better utilised when making his bid for victory. It is likely to be a brutal race, and his biggest asset might be that he is one brute of a horse. His jockey, Joao Moreira, needs to be acutely aware of what Guyon is doing on Solow. That horse is almost certain to be ahead of him in the early and middle stages of the race, and if he opens up too big a break on Able Friend, it might be impossible to bridge the gap, given that horses ability to accelerate and sustain a long run. If any horse could manage it though, it’s him.

He is one of the best horses I’ve laid eyes on, and it’s now a matter of whether his courage and adaptability can match his undoubted talent. We are about to find out.

Third favourite in the race is Godolphin owned Night Of Thunder (4h). His career record stands at 4-4/9 and he comes off a determined win in the ideal lead up race at Newbury known as the Lockinge. It too is run over a 1600m straight course and is a true test of strength and stamina. This year’s edition was no race for the faint hearted, and he was just able to prevail after coming from off the pace.

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdJkK9h5YUU

His stable has won this race on three of the last six occasions (all have been four year olds), and this horse is yet to taste defeat on a straight track at a mile journey (2/2 Newbury and Newmarket).

He had a horse called The Grey Gatsby six lengths astern of him just over a year ago at Newmarket and it was 4.5 lengths behind when runner up to Solow in Dubai. That factor alone suggests he is capable of toppling the top two favourites in this race, and he should be fitter for the fresh up win at Newbury. He also possesses tactical speed and can lead, though it’s likely his stablemate will be more prominent.

That stablemate is Toormore (4h), and he also deserves a mention for his run in the Lockinge when runner up. He was well and truly beaten when Night Of Thunder exploded past him well clear of the finish line, but he rallied strongly the last 100m to force the issue to a half length or so.

His greatest asset might be jockey Richard Hughes, who has been on board all three of the stables winners in the past six years. The negative might be that he has met Night Of Thunder on five occasions, and has come up short on every occasion. It’s a bit hard to see him reversing the trend on such an occasion, but I’m sure Hughes will be planning a coup of his own. He is an on pacer and can make his own luck.

One for exotics at a long price could be Cable Bay (4h). He was five lengths off Night Of Thunder in the Lockinge, but is a renowned fast finisher who would be suited off a fast pace.

Conclusion
I’d be expecting a truly run race, with Glory Awaits and Toormore taking up the running. Solow can possie up behind them and get the first shot at the leaders. Night Of Thunder might be just behind him, and ready to pounce. Able Friend looks almost certain to be behind that quartet, but has drawn the widest, and can power home late with an unimpeded run.

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I’ve studied as many formlines as I can find and can barely split the three horses at the head of the betting market for this race. Solow looks the logical pick given his winning experience on similar terrain and straight tracks. He is also more battle hardened than the four-year-old entires, and possibly has more tactical speed than Able Friend. The negative is he is a $2.50 favourite, though it’s probably a realistic quote.

The value is with Night Of Thunder. He is less experienced than the two favoured horses, but on the other hand has plenty of upside and does have home advantage. He likes a straight mile race, and is in the hands of a trainer who knows how to prepare a horse to win this very race. $6 is a very appealing price.

Able Friend is the one I’ll be cheering for though, as will many Aussies who will be more than keen to take the $3 or so on offer. There are few better sights in racing than seeing ‘Big Red’ (as called by HK commentator Darren Flindell) reel in the leaders with ruthless efficiency.

This should be a race for the ages, one truly worth staying up for at 11:30pm (AEST) tonight.

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