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2015 Tattersalls Club Tiara: Tips, full preview and race analysis

Roar Guru
19th June, 2015
6

The Tattersalls Club Tiara is an excellent Fillies and Mares race, first staged in 1989 and used to be known as the Winter Stakes.

The race
It begun as a listed race, before being promoted to a Group 3 event, then onto a Group 2, before finally blossoming into Group 1 status in 2007.

Since then it has largely been dominated by three year old fillies who have won five of the last eight editions.

This year the race is being held at the Gold Coast racetrack for the first time. That seems to be a good decision because it can be run at 1400m, rather than having a third Group one race run over 1350m at Doomben this Winter.

The controversy
It is arguably the best race of the carnival in terms of depth and interest, or at least it would be if the three year old Najoom had gained a start which seems unlikely at present.

The make up of the field is based on prizemoney won which obviously means it has nothing to do with which horse is favourite (Najoom is), and little to do with the current form of participants.

It continues to astound me because I will categorically state right here that if Najoom runs she should probably win, based on her age, weight, and the fact she ran faster time last start than the Doomben 10000 winner did, on the same day whilst in her own age group.

And she did it with consummate ease after a torrid wide run. When is common sense going to prevail in these instances, because this Carnival has been full of them?

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Other recent significant historical factors tell us that the Dane Ripper Stakes (5) and the Stradbroke (4) have produced 9 of the past 12 winners. And the last three winners have won at their prior start.

Barriers 1-7 have produced 8 of the past 12 winners, which is surprising given the race has been exclusively run at the spacious Eagle Farm track.

No such anomaly exists for the Stradbroke Handicap, which is run at the same distance and at the same track. That factor might be even more critical this year at a tighter Gold Coast circuit, and as luck would have it, many of the major winning chances have drawn very poor barriers.

Even though three year olds hold sway over the past eight years, this is also a good race for four year old mares who have won seven of the past sixteen editions since 1999. Only two have been five year olds during that period, and none have been aged six or over.

Top runners
The horse to beat this year (excluding Najoom) is definitely Srikandi.

She comes off a decisive win in the Stradbroke, where she ran over a second faster than the Fillies and Mares did on the same day in the Dane Ripper Stakes.

The last 600m for both races was very similar, which tells us that her first 750m in the Stradbroke was run one second faster. Srikandi was up on that fast pace, yet was still able to defy her opposition, and was actually going as well as, or better than any other horse at the finish. She is 2/2 at this track, and 2/2 on wet tracks.

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If this were a handicap she would be conceding every horse more weight, including 3yo filly Lumosty whom she beat more than four lengths in the Stradbroke. Lumosty is actually half a kilo worse off for being comfortably beaten. The big negative for Srikandi is the barrier, but if she overcomes that she is almost unbeatable I believe.

Hazard is in super form but not as well weighted as some of those she beat in the Dane Ripper. She raced wide there though so perhaps she could have won that race easier than she did. She has an awkward barrier though and it does seem a wet track could bring her undone.

Catkins is better weighted than most of her rivals out of the Dane Ripper stakes where she was a touch disappointing, albeit coming off a 56 day break.

She is one of the few top hopes that has drawn a good barrier, and will no doubt get the run of the race. She is going to be suited by a damp track (6/9). Given her excellent overall strike rate it seems quite odd that she has only won one of eight starts at 1400m, and she has never won a race at Winter time.

Interestingly like Srikandi, she is out of the same sire-Dubawi. She has to be one of the better chances in this race.

Avoid Lightning very nearly won this race last year and she comes off a different formline to most others in this. She has drawn barrier 1 and is going to be in this race for a long way on a wet surface that suits.

She could very well prevail with all favours in the race, but she is 6 years of age and yet to win beyond 1300m. She definitely has to go into all Quinellas and Trifectas though.

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Solicit is Group 1 placed at 2000m on a wet track behind Lucia Valentina (big gap to third). She is a very versatile mare and it’s quite significant to see that her winning strike rate at 1400m or below is 5/10, and above that distance she has failed to win from 12 starts.

She races well fresh, and the 28 days between runs for her should be a positive. She has been with current trainer Gerald Ryan for five starts only, and seems to be on the improve, with her last last 2 runs very good after conceding weight to her rivals. She has drawn barrier 7 which looks ideal and given her on pace racing pattern, and she should get the perfect run in transit.

She was only a half length off Catkins in a Group 1 race last Spring, and might be going better than that mare right now. And she is four times the price so represents terrific value in this race. Definitely a winning hope and she is a four year old mare which is a bonus.

Real Surreal could be one of the better value chances even though she has drawn wide. She is only one of three horses in the race that has won on this track and she comes into the race off a win last start. That was last week and it’s pertinent to note that her win here was on a 7 day backup in the Magic Millions race for two year olds.

She isn’t as well weighted as she was last week, and her time was noticeably slower there than the older horses in the Eye Liner Stakes. But she is a mare peaking at the right time, and is at the right price. If she can overcome a wide barrier she is a winning chance.

Peggy Jean deserves a mention merely because she is only a 3yo and it’s only her second run for the Snowden stable. She wasn’t suited by a slowly run race last start and probably over-raced. The blinkers come off for this race in response, but she will need plenty of luck from the barrier.

Lumosty is the other 3yo in the race and is a very good winning hope. She was all at sea in the Stradbroke, and the ride seemed a little impatient and gave her very little hope of winnig from out wide from the 600m to the turn. It’s interesting that her only run on a wet track was a win by 9L in excellent comparative time.

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She could well benefit from her first run in a right handed direction, although I did mention before the Sradbroke that her Dam Luminous Eyes did only win one from eight in a clockwise direction during a nine start career. Her only run anti clockwise was a win. That may be inconsequential given Lumosty has galloped in a right handed direction at home in Victoria, and she has drawn better for this race than she did in the Stradbroke.

We do know she can run the distance as she won a 1600m race at Moonee Valley last Spring. She should have no excuses this time back against her own sex, and is one of the better winning hopes.

Conclusion:
I have left out quite a few possible hopes in this preview, and given the barrier draw has opened up the race a lot, that could be reprehensible. Some of them have drawn badly too though, and others face a distance or class they aren’t best accustomed to. Some might also struggle on a wet track.

Srikandi looks the one they all have to beat, but she still has that awkward barrier to overcome, and is likely to be given no favours by her opposition. Where she gets to in the early part of the race I really don’t know, but if she gets an economical run it could be curtains for her opposition.

Solicit appeals at value to me so I have to lean her way at $17 or better. The horse she beat into third last start (Tukiyo) and conceded 3kg too was only just beaten by Real Surreal last week.

Real Surreal only carried half a kilo more than Tukiyo, which in essence means that Solicit is roughly a 3kg better mare. They meet at level weights here.

Both Catkins and Avoid Lightning have to be respected from good barriers on a suitable track surface, and Lumosty looks one of the better winning chances with the wet ground possibly a major asset, as is her age.

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1. Solicit
2. Srikandi
3. Avoid Lightning
4. Lumosty

All this is for nothing if Najoom does happen to get a start. She would definitely be my top selection.

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