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The Carlton trade value bible: How to beat the malaise

23rd June, 2015
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Expert
23rd June, 2015
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It’s only late June, but for a number of AFL teams minds must be drifting towards what comes next. I think we can confidently put a line through at least three teams, and tentatively rub out another couple. I present to you the Carlton Blues trade bible for 2015.

Gold Coast will be hoping the injury curse doesn’t strike again, and the New Brat Pack sorts themselves out over the off season break. The Brisbane Lions had injuries too, but are a few key position players away from rising up the ladder (hat tip to The Crowd, who shouted me down before the season). And Carlton. Carlton, Carlton, Carlton. I’ve got Blues on the brain this week.

Now, we’re almost done with the bye period, after which each side will have 10 games remaining in the home and away season. I’m feeling particularly crazy (and perhaps a little bit stupid), and plan to predict how the final 90 games of the regular season will unfold. Look out for that one next week – sorry, no table at the end of the article this week.

Instead, I want to have a deep look at the where-to-next for Carlton. They’re in a fascinating position, if only because of the latent assets sitting tantalisingly on their balance sheet.

This is the Carlton trade value column.

Showing some signs
Under interim coach John Barker, the Blues seem to have a bit more confidence in their ability. But there’s also been a tweak in the game plan that was operating under former coach Michael Malthouse. They may only be 1-2 (with one close win and one close loss – as defined by a margin of less than 12 points), but Barker has allowed the Blues players some freedoms that Malthouse forbade.

Since Round 9, Carlton have averaged 87.3 marks per game, up from 67.8 in the first eight games. This would see the Blues move into more average territory for marks; 67.8 per game was dead stinking last. There’s also been an increase in the Blues propensity to kick (208.7 v 169.4), and to get the ball on the outside (226.7 v 1 75.3).

Their three opponents have also had a lift in kicks and uncontested possessions over the Barker period, all of which is to say the days of clogged toilet footy at Carlton may be over. Open forward lines, use of the corridor, it’s all in favour, and isn’t it great. Mr Barker is putting together a solid portfolio for his head coach interview at the end of the season.

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Notwithstanding their victory over the weekend – Port Adelaide, wow – the Blues are at a super interesting, and super important, juncture in their history. The rebuild is on, and with the retirement of Chris Judd and some imminent shifts in the off-field side of the game, the Blues have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be bold, take some risks, and set themselves on a path to greatness.

Hung, draw and quartered
Carlton’s list has been subject to a great deal of scrutiny in recent times, even before the very public declaration of a rebuild after the moving on of Michael Malthouse.

The architect of Greater Western Sydney’s suddenly monstrous list, and full back of the last century, Stephen Silvagni, has returned to the club where he made his on field name, tasked with the rebuild.

In an article in last week’s The Age, Silvagni gave some insights into just how badly Carlton’s player management system has failed the club.

Not only are the Blues one of the most prime age sides in the competition (with 16 players in the core 25-29 age bracket), they are also completely capped out and will quite possibly be in the incredible situation of having just one of their national draft picks taken between 2009 and 2011 on their list (Sam Rowe) by the end of this football year.

Could it be the worst list management situation in AFL history? I don’t know how you’d measure something like that, but that these features are in place with Carlton at the bottom of the 2015 AFL ladder, I’d feel confident asserting that it is.

And let’s not talk about the forward line exodus.

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There’s been lots of eulogies written on where they’ve been and where the Blues are at here and now. In case you haven’t worked it out yet, I’m interested in the future. Before we get into that, a brief history trip will help set the scene.

Dane Swan and Dale Thomas embrace Dale Thomas’ for the Blues. (Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media)

The Elite Four
Silvagni’s agenda, at face value, seems to be ultra conservative. The Age article’s headline says it all: Keeping core players.

This, combined with public assurances that they won’t be traded, suggests the triumvirate of number one picks from the middle of the last decade will remain at Carlton as the rebuild gets underway.

As a reminder, the Blues picked first in the 2005, 2006 and 2007 AFL National Drafts, selecting now-captain Marc Murphy, centre Bryce Gibbs, and oft-injured big man Matthew Kreuzer in that order. Murphy and Kreuzer’s selections were under the game’s antiquated priority pick rule, while the 2006 selection was just because the Blues finished last. Some improvement in 2008 saw the Blues pick sixth, taking half back Chris Yarran. All four players are still on the Carlton list, and have played more than 100 games

That particular stretch of Carlton’s history can largely be traced back to the 2002 salary cap scandal, where the Blues were found to be paying a number of players in brown paper bags; a strictly prohibited form of payment under the AFL’s collective bargaining agreement.

The harsh draft sanctions imposed saw the Blues plummet on the field through the middle part of the last decade, and led to that period of consistent high draft picks.

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History shows it’s high draft picks – in particular, consecutive years of high draft picks, and more particularly clusters of high draft picks in consecutive years – is the path to sustained success. Geelong’s now fading dynasty was built on the 2001 draft, while Hawthorn owes its dominance to a string of high draft picks in the early-to-mid 2000s. Fremantle’s list has been bolstered by the 2008, 2009 and 2010 drafts. Collingwood have done in over the past two years. You get the idea.

And that’s why the Blues are where they’re at now, with a list built on the notion that premiership contention should be on the offing after what can only be called a Cleveland-esque run of high draft picks.

The addition of the recently retired Chris Judd as Murphy and Gibbs were coming into their own had the footy world buzzing that the window was open. It is now abundantly clear that 2011’s fifth place finish and semi final exit was this Carlton’s absolute peak.

Looking back now, a second finals trip in 2013, courtesy of Essendon’s scandals, may have contributed to the current situation – giving the Blues hierarchy, and the fan base, an inflated sense of where their playing group was at. Dale Thomas’ move was the band-aid for a wound that required much more serious attention.

A seven-win campaign in 2014, and solitary victory in 2015, have followed.

Just before we get to the future, it’s worth reflecting on what peak Carlton was able to do. In that 2011 finals run, Carlton were ranked fifth on both Offensive Efficiency Rating (+8.5), with the Blues clearly below the top three sides of that year in Collingwood, Geelong and Hawthorn. It was a similar story on the stopping power front, with Carlton ranking fifth on Defensive Efficiency Rating, admittedly with a stronger rating of +17.0.

My point in bringing this up is to just highlight how wrong the front office at Carlton was in their assessment of where the side was at. Even at their absolute best, there was a gulf between the Blues and the best in the league.

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Alright, that’ll do for the retrospective. Let’s have a look at where the Blues can go from here.

No time for conservatism
So the Blues have erred, and have recognised that a substantial house clearing is in order. The blueprint for these kinds of exercises, as above, seems to be cobbling together a year or two of four picks inside the first couple of rounds.

The AFL allocates draft picks on reverse finishing order and in a series of rounds, with each team starting with a pick per round. So to get more than two picks inside the first two rounds requires some wheeling and dealing.

To give us a frame of reference, let’s assume that the Blues have an objective of picking in the first 30 selections of the National Draft – which is the first round and two thirds of the second round – seven times over the next two seasons, with four of these picks to come inside the top 10. It’s a similar objective to St Kilda following their run at the Premiership, and one which is starting to pay dividends.

If there’s no rebound in prospect, the Blues will get access to two first round picks (1 to 18) and two second-round picks that would fit the ‘top 30’ criteria. That means the Blues need to find trades that would get them access to an extra two top 10 picks and one additional pick somewhere inside the top 30.

It sounds like a lot, and it is, but it’s been done and done quite often. Last season, Collingwood picked twice in the top 10 and had a third pick in the top 30, following two top 10 picks in the 2013 National Draft.

However, it’s self-evident that the Blues have very little by way of tradable assets on their list.

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There is young talent that is just starting to blossom. Tom Bell, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty, Troy Menzel and Dylan Buckley all look to have what it takes to carve out careers at the highest level.

You would argue these are perhaps Carlton’s best trade chips: young, mostly cost controlled, and with lots of upside for a potential suitor.

But given the abyss the Blues have created for themselves through poor drafting, Carlton simply must hang on to the talent they have managed to generate in recent years. This group represents a core of players that will be around the 150-game mark in five years’ time.

It’s also the group of players that are either on their cost-controlled draftee contract, or playing on their first market price deal; for a cap constrained team these are players that cannot be moved.

Carlton’s next tier is filled with role players, or the players you’d like to have filling out spots 19 through 22 in your starting line-up. For Carlton, this part of the list is far too large, and those in it are not particularly valuable as trade assets. They may see you get an extra couple of low picks, but shifting them won’t move the needle for the Blues.

Perhaps the most valuable asset in this group is Lachie Henderson, who could be parlayed to a side looking for a key position building block, probably for a low-ish draft pick. A return to his draft team of Brisbane looks possible. Cameron Wood could be a similar proposition, depending on how the other cards fall.

Robbie Warnock is an interesting proposition in this space, too. The one-time Aaron Sandilands protégé has played just over half of the games on offer at his time with the Blues, despite earning above average dollars.

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When he has played, Warnock has shown signs of being an adequate tap ruckman, averaging 30+ hitouts a game every year since reaching 25 years of age. The 206cm ruckman is out for the remainder of 2015, and is not signed beyond the end of this season. Do the Blues re-sign him on a short deal for less money, and seek to move him on to a side looking for ruck depth? Watch this space, I reckon.

Outside of this, we’re getting into Elite Four territory, which presents Silvagni and his list management team with a dilemma, particularly in light of the narrative the brass have set up: off limits.

I’m sorry, but off limits is not going to get it done. Carlton’s only major trade chips lie in those assets deemed untouchable by the club. Trading Lachie Henderson and Robbie Warnock should be considered the business-as-usual transactions of a professional AFL club.

The Blues have a one-time-only chance to make some bold moves, and set their club up to reclaim past glory. The incremental, softly softly approach is not going to get it done.

All of this is occurring as the negotiations for the AFL’s next broadcast agreement begin to heat up for real, with the executive talking to all sorts of visual intermediaries as potential carriers for its post-2016 deal. The asking price looks to have settled around the $1.6 billion over five years mark, which would see the AFL’s salary cap, potentially (I stress, this is back-of-the-envelope stuff) rise to $17 million by 2021 – from just shy of $10 million this year.

Clubs are likely preparing for this eventuality right now. But Carlton’s top heavy list profile, and emerging young talent, put it in a very strong position to fully capitalise on the projected salary bump by clearing some cap room and putting itself in a strong position to chase the free agent classes of the future.

It’s time for Carlton to shake things up.

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John Barker, caretaker Coach of the Blues John Barker has taken over the Blues in a caretaker capacity! (Photo: Lachlan Cunningham/AFL Media)

Unlocking Carlton’s trade value
The way I see things, Carlton’s top 10 players coming into 2014, in terms of importance to the side on and off the field, would look something like this (in alphabetical order by first name, obviously):

Andrew Carrazzo
Andrew Walker
Bryce Gibbs
Chris Judd
Chris Yarran
Dale Thomas
Kade Simpson
Marc Murphy
Matthew Kreuzer
Michael Jamison

Under normal circumstances, these would be your untouchables. But Carlton’s are no ordinary circumstances. All but the retired Chris Judd, and likely yellow shirt bound Andrew Carrazzo, should be on the table for the Blues.

As much as I love Kade Simpson – he’s legitimately one of my favourite players – as the team’s most experienced player his is a career destined to end in the navy blue. He may even be called upon to captain the side should the current holder of that title end up shipped to another suitor. But let’s not jump to conclusions.

Andrew Walker and Michael Jamison play what is clearly the most illiquid position in the league, and so Carlton can’t move them without weakening an already pretty weak defensive line up. They’re staying.

That leaves five players, all in the prime age bracket, and all with a lot to offer. Fully fit and firing, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Murphy, Thomas and Yarran would be walk up starters in almost any AFL side, and this is where Carlton’s trade value lies. They’re called untouchables for a reason.

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Let’s take a stroll down Hypothetical Street, examine the particulars of their respective contractual situations, scan the market, and see if we can’t just put a value on what a trade may mean for Carlton and its future prospects.

Bryce Gibbs
Pick #1, 2006
187 games | 26 years old (on 1 January 2016)
Current deal: 2015-2019 (signed 2014) | $600,000 pa (guesstimated)

Bryce Gibbs is one of the game’s most prolific ball winners when he’s on, averaging 22 disposals in his career to date and breaching the 30 possession mark in 23 of his 187 games. But his mercurial nature is illustrated by his 33 games of 16 possessions or less (four a quarter, give or take), suggesting he has a tendency to float in and out of games based on how he’s going.

He’s also incredibly durable, having played in more than 20 games a season in each of his eight years at the Blues to date. That may not last into a ninth year, though, with Gibbs missing a handful of games in the middle of this season.

A move to a more traditional centre position hasn’t quite borne the fruits expected by many – including yours truly – this year, with Gibbs rate of contested possessions, clearances and inside 50s dropping away from 2014 levels. This may be a product of the before-mentioned cluster of youngsters coming through and picking up some slack; but a near-200 game 26-year-old shouldn’t be dropping off under those circumstances.

His talent was perhaps best displayed in a Round 10, 2010 match up against the West Coast Eagles, where Gibbs had 45 disposals and 12 marks, acting as the link up outside player that he has been best known as to this point in his career.

A rampant 27 disposal, 18 contested possession and 12 (yes, 12) clearance effort in the 2013 elimination final victory over Richmond suggested he had the chops to play the anchor role through the Blues midfield. But it hasn’t quite worked out that way.

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There’s no doubt the number one pick has immense talent. But can he be the number one midfielder, shepherding through a group of young charges who are just learning to ply their trade? There has to be some doubts given his inconsistency to this point.

His contract is friendly – certainly amongst the more friendly of the upper echelons at the Blues – with an estimated $600,000 per year deal looking like chump change towards the back end of his deal. That ups his value to both the Blues and to potential suitors, as does his youth, and the fact he’ll be just 29 upon the expiry of his current agreement.

Who are the potential suitors for a midfielder that’s just entering prime age and is on a team friendly deal? Ha. Take your pick.

I see his best fit as a second or third man in one of the league’s rising midfield groups: a Bulldogs, St Kilda or Melbourne. Brisbane may fit the bill too, although may not be interested in adding another streaky mid to their stable. Should Patrick Dangerfield end up leaving the Crows – I don’t think he will, but that’s just me – a belated father-son connection could be formed.

But it may come down to what the prospective trade can offer: St Kilda and Melbourne will both certainly hold top 10 draft picks come the end of the season. Are they brave enough to take a punt on Gibbs’ best being his true talent?

Marc Murphy
Pick #1, 2005 (Priority Pick)
196 games | 28 years old
Current deal: 2015-2018 (signed 2014) | $700,000pa (guesstimated)

Before you say ‘mergh he’s the captain’, Ryan Griffen was the captain of the Bulldogs. Chris Judd was the captain of West Coast. Sometimes, the managing director has to be the one to take the bullet. What I’m saying is, don’t flat out rule out Marc Murphy as a trade prospect simply because he’s the captain of the Blues.

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Murphy was Carlton’s first super high selection of the post-sanction era, and has been a very good player for the Blues for 10 years now. He re-signing in 2014, a year before he would have become eligible as an unrestricted free agent, was seen as an endorsement of the short- and medium-term direction of the Navy Blues under coach Malthouse.

Things can change quite quickly, it seems.

Like most of Carlton’s most valuable trade asset, Murphy peaked in terms of output in the 2011 season, averaging 29 disposals and five clearances, and kicking just shy of a goal a game. A top 10 finish in the Brownlow count – and that he polled in 12 of 22 games – at the age of 23 suggested he was on the verge of breaking into elite territory.

He’s yet to break into that rarefied air, but Murph is without a doubt the most consistent of Carlton’s midfield ball winners. He adds a composed level of consistency that is a necessity in today’s midfield driven league.

All of this is to say Marc Murphy is an excellent third banana.

Murphy could be one of the league’s great in-and-under players, if he had the body types around him to facilitate it. At 180cm and 80 kgs, Murphy is most certainly a small midfielder amongst the current crop of ball winning talent. I mean, Hawthorn are playing Jarryd Roughead, who has 13 centimetres and 20 kilos on Murphy, through the middle a lot more this year, to counter teams like Fremantle.

The Blues have a few players coming through that fit that bigger body mould: Cripps (190cm/88kg), Docherty (184cm/85kg) and Tom Bell (187cm/98kg) are the prototype. But they’re still three years away from fully developing, by which time Murphy will be 31 and have upwards of 260 games on his odometer as an inside midfielder.

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So are the Blues better to test the market and see what’s on offer for their captain?

I could see him slotting into any of the AFL’s young up-and-coming sides: the Giants, Suns, St Kilda, Melbourne, and the Western Bulldogs; take your pick. The Giants are showing what the addition of some veteran leadership can mean for a group of young players. Gee the Suns could use some of that tonic right now couldn’t they.

Carlton also fit the bill of a young side looking for veteran leadership, and you don’t get much more leadershippy than the captain.

The one downside may be his deal, which at an estimated $700,000 – and with three more years to run – may turn a rising side off. These are teams that will be looking to zealously horde salary cap space to lure free agents as they get ready to have a tilt at the finals, and adding a piece at this price would hamper that flexibility. That will be offset by the rising cap in 2017, but it has to be a consideration.

If I were a betting man I’d say he stays the course, becomes a one club player and hopes to hell that the Blues sort themselves out in time to get him in contention for a flag. His situation is very reminiscent of Matthew Pavlich’s 2010 decision to stick around at Fremantle – absent the lure of home Pavlich was facing.

But there is a real possibility that he is sacrificed to the rebuilding gods in the name of a first round draft pick; or a young player plus a high second rounder.

Matthew Kreuzer
Pick #1, 2007 (Priority Pick)
109 games | 26 years old
Current deal: 2013-2015 (signed 2012) | $ Unknown
Eligible Restricted Free Agent in 2015

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Two metres tall and mobile has become the AFL’s most wanted body type forward of the ball. Guess what Carlton have? The 207cm ruck/forward Matthew Kreuzer!

Injury has constrained Kreuzer to this point in his career. How’s this for a shopping list of niggles and serious injuries? (courtesy largely of the diligent if slightly obsessive posters over at BigFooty):

Round 3, 2008: makes debut and plays 56 consecutive games.
Round 13, 2010: suffers season-ending ACL injury. Has traditional reconstruction.
Round 11, 2011: returns to the AFL.
Finals Week 1, 2011: foot numbness, misses finals series. Has knee cleaned up.
Round 10, 2012: misses with tight hamstring.
Round 17, 2012: misses with hip injury.
Round 3, 2013: breaks thumb. Returns Round 7.
Finals Week 1, 2013: injures foot, misses finals series. Has off-season surgery.
Round 1, 2014: re injures same foot, has further surgery. Complications see him miss full year.
Pre-season, 2015: injures same foot, misses opening nine rounds. Returns Round 10.

Like Shane Mumford’s ankle injury a couple of weeks ago, you don’t want foot or lower leg related issues as a big man. It’s been a cursed seven year run for the big man – never breaking out of a jog in what was promising to be a gold medal sprinter’s career. Kreuzer was stuck in a two ruck heavy line up, averaging 15 hit outs per game in his first three seasons. Now remember, this is an 18-19 year old beanpole, going up against guys almost twice his age and at least 20 kegs larger.

The 2012 and 2013 seasons saw Kreuzer come into his own, averaging 23 and 25 hit outs in those years respectively, as he assumed the primary ruckman role. However, Kreuzer was still part of a generally dual ruck group, meaning he didn’t get the absolute volume of hit outs some other rucks were managing. For example, ex-Carlton big guy Sam Jacobs sconed 31 hit outs per game in 2012.

So he’s got the chops. But injuries have severely hampered his career.

The Kreuze is back playing now, and seems to be playing more as a forward/ruck rather than a ruck/forward, with Cameron Wood playing the more traditional centre ruck role. This seems to me to be the position Kreuzer can make his own into the future. And if that’s the case, Matthew Kreuzer could be anything in the right line up – and that right line-up includes Carlton.

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But the Blues may not get the chance to test his fit for the long term: Kreuzer is a restricted free agent at the end of this football year, having completed eight years of service at the Blues and (surely) in the top 25 nine or 10 players from a pay perspective. Restricted free agents can test the market and field offers from rival clubs, but the current club has the right to match any tabled offers and keep their player.

Given Carlton’s salary cap situation, this makes things really complicated: does a club looking for a more mature Ben Brown/Joe Daniher type throw a four year, $800,000 contract at him? All things being equal, that would put the squeeze on the Blues and may force their hand on other, mid-tier players. That scenario could result in Carlton paying close to 30% of their salary allowance to four players in a 40-odd player roster. For a side preaching regeneration, that does not compute.

And is he worth a first round compensation pick? If he gets that kind of offer, surely Carlton would be entitled to an extra pick. So uhh this one is really complicated for the Blues.

One possible outcome is the Blues look to sign Kreuzer over the remainder of this year, and then seek a trade during the upcoming offseason. Carlton have shown a lot of faith in the big man, and taken risks in keeping him on the list despite his awful injury run. A fresh start at a new club, as a ruck or a forward, might just help Kreuzer reach his peak, while also helping the Blues in their rebuilding efforts. A first rounder, and probably a young key position prospect, would be required to get the job done.

A third possibility would be re-signing with the Blues before free agency kicks in, backing him in, and trusting him to be Carlton’s key forward as they rise up the ladder. It’ll cost them, and probably necessitate some moves to clear cap space.

Where are the potential destinations? Brisbane, again, are seeking some tall guys, and have shown a propensity to take key forwards off of the Blues hands. Other Victorian clubs like Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda would kick the tyres, with the latter having the requisite assets I think would be required to get things done.

He’s certainly an intriguing discussion headed into the home stretch of the AFL season.

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Dale Thomas
Pick #2, 2005 (Priority Pick, Collingwood)
183 games (25 for Carlton) | 28 years old
Current deal: 2014-2018 (free agent signed 2013). Fifth year club option | $700,000pa

This deal has Ryan Howard written all over it.

In Major League Baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies gave hitting machine Ryan Howard a five-year, US$125 million contract to hit home runs and stand at first base, based on a couple of years which have proven to be nothing more than streaky. That piece posits that the Phillies are paying Howard top-three player money for replacement-level output. And it has crippled the franchise.

Ok, so it’s not that bad for the Blues.

The history of Dale Thomas’ move to the Blues is different, with the half forward linked heavily to ex-coach Mick Malthouse, and his free agency coincided with that period of Blues delirium in 2012-13. Thomas was one of the league’s first major free agent signings, landing at the Blues in the second year the player movement rules came into effect.

According to many reports, he is the highest paid player at the Blues, with my research suggesting he may be on a tick over $700,000 per year. He’s only 1.5 years into what could be a five year deal, with the Blues holding a club option for the 2019 season. That’s a hefty $3.5 million that the Blues are on the hook for, for what is essentially a half forward flanker.

There’s no doubt Carlton took a massive risk signing Thomas as a restricted free agent at the end of 2013, after the then-Pie had played just five games in that season before succumbing to an ankle injury that required a reconstruction. He managed to stay on the park for much of 2014, although pulled the pin after Round 21. An unlucky, shoulder-wrenching tackle in the first minute of the 2015 season effectively ended his year, with the Blues opting for a shoulder reconstruction last week.

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Until Thomas gets back on the park, I can’t see many teams contemplating securing his services through a trade. So the Blues will have to hope the 28 year old, with a reconstructed ankle and shoulder, can get back to something resembling the form he displayed in Collingwood’s dominant, if flagless, 2011 campaign – his best year.

I could see him doing it, as a high half forward or wingman. I could also see him flaming out and retiring due to injury once the fourth year of his current deal is up. And that’s why his trade value is significantly limited, possibly until the AFL salary cap jumps in 2017. But if he’s fit and firing by that stage, it’s foreseeable that Thomas could be one of the central charges in a rising Carlton side. He’d be worth a late first rounder for a side looking for that extra piece, but he could also be worth a third rounder for some clubs not willing to take the risk.

This is what Dale Thomas has become.

Chris Yarran
Pick #6, 2008
112 games | 25 years old
Current deal: 2015-2016 (signed 2014) | $ Unknown

Chris Yarran is stuck somewhere in between Carlton’s crop of young up and coming talent and the previously mentioned four senior trade chips. Taken at pick six in 2008, Yarran has bucketloads of potential that he’s not quite lived up to at this point in his career.

He’s been tried all over the ground – on the wing, half back flank, forward pocket – and never fully found his niche. There’s be glimpses of what could be a very damaging ball user, in the same vein as, say, Danyle Pearce for Fremantle, but perhaps the biggest knock on Yarran from a numbers standpoint is his lack of influence. Number 13 averages pretty much the same number of kicks, handballs, clearances, inside 50s and tackles when the Blues win versus when the Blues lose. He’s seen as mercurial. He aint.

I’m probably beginning to sound like a broken record, but Yarran’s best season was 2011, where he averaged 18 disposals, more than four rebounds and five bounces per game playing as the ground ball defender in the Blues back line.

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It’s probably his best position, but the lack of spark through the midfield and up forward has meant Yarran has been creeping slowly further up the ground through his career to date. While he still gets 70 per cent of his possessions in the back half, I’d love to see what would happen if he got 90 per cent or more back there setting up the play for his centres and half forwards.

With an expiring contract next season, Yarran seems destined to test the free agency waters. He’s got streaming half back flanker written all over him, and I could see him becoming a freaking weapon for one of the top handful of sides. That’s got to be the situation Yarran is looking for – a team where he can play an attacking role rather than having to worry too much about accountability or being one of the top handful of players in the team. That’s his destiny at the Blues, at least for a few years.

At 25 years of age, there’s little doubt he’ll be around when Carlton sort themselves out, which adds an interesting wrinkle to what I see as a pretty clear cut trade situation. Do the Blues put up with another three or four years of 15 possessions while having to pay him to 10 money? I don’t see it personally.

I would tip the scales in favour of a trade right now, and possibly to one of the sides around the top end of the ladder looking for an extra weapon off half back. West Coast or Fremantle would love to have him in their schemes, Hawthorn aren’t getting any younger, the Tigers are a little light on small defenders (notwithstanding they have just locked up a Swiss army knife for the next four years), and Sydney might do it just to troll everyone.

The issue may be value, although Yarran’s expiring contract situation could force Carlton’s hand. If he sticks around to see the end of his deal – which is only a year away – it’s quite possible they could lose him for nothing. Do they cut their losses and settle for a high second rounder? Watch this space, I reckon.

There’s Carlton’s assets, and a bit of a stab in the dark as to what the Blues could shop them around for. Can you see why we should be so intrigued at their offseason?

The Blues have some very interesting months ahead of them as they prepare for the off season. Just how all-in do they want to go? It’s not the time to be timid. There is so much value lying dormant on the Blues list, and wouldn’t it be great to see them leverage it.

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