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With the Ashes a couple of weeks away the Australian cricket selectors have some tough questions to answer, not least the make-up and balance of the bowling attack.
Australia will likely go into the frist Test with three quicks and Nathan Lyon as the spinner, with help from the part-timers.
Looking at the quicks one thing is for sure, barring multiple injuries to other bowlers Peter Siddle will not play in the first Test. His last six Tests have netted just 12 wickets at 52 a pop. He is making up the numbers.
Two of the quicks should be a lock.
Ryan Harris has been set for these Ashes a long way out and when fit is an automatic selection. With his pace and aggression mixed with a nagging line and length, he is the first chosen.
Although his last 12 months have not been his best, his overall record speaks for itself: 27 matches for 113 wickets at 23.52 with an economy rate of 2.78. You have yourself a complete bowling package there.
Even if Harris is not taking wickets, his frugality wears at a batsman’s patience, softening them up for others.
Josh Hazlewood is the other automatic selection. The sky is the limit for him. Although it’s early days in his career, he is already building an imposing record: five Tests for a return of 24 wickets at 19 with an economy rate of 2.5. Some are calling him Glen McGrath mark II. That may be a big call but his first-class record of 119 wickets at under 24 point towards it.
With his metronomic style and imposing 196 cm frame, the English wickets will only suit him further. I’m predicting bowler of the series if Australia win.
The third spot is where the selection dilemma lies.
Mitchell Johnson is the obvious choice. In the last series against England he terrorised the batsmen and put in a performance reminiscent of Dennis Lillee at his best. Sending down blistering 150kph thunderbolts, the English had no answers as he took 37 wickets at under 14 apiece for the series.
He single-handedly dismantled the English to send them home with their tails between their legs. Johnson’s record against the English in Australia is fantastic. 57 wickets at 20.
Surely he would be the first picked?
However when you dig a little deeper some cracks start to appear. When in England his performance goes from chocolates to boiled lollies: 20 wickets at 32 and an economy rate of above four runs an over. Not only does he struggle to take wickets but his economy rate goes through the roof. Australia’s success over the last 25 years has largely been down to bowling in partnerships and creating pressure. In England he simply doesn’t do that.
Also, where has his pace gone? From regularly hitting 150kph and being a match winner in the previous Ashes, his pace has significantly dropped to averaging in the low 140s, making him a toothless tiger. Sure the English may be psychologically damaged from the last series but at his current pace I’m not sure how long that will remain a factor.
With his lack of penetration due to his loss of pace and his high economy rate, this Ashes could be a disaster for Johnson if he doesn’t turn it around. And at 33 time is not his friend.
The other Mitch, the Starc variety, has had an inauspicious start to his Test career and has been dropped more times than not, rarely playing consecutive Tests. His overall stats are not all that impressive either: 17 matches for 60 wickets at 32. But the selectors have seen something in him and the Australian public are starting to see it too.
His recent form has been phenomenal. He took 22 wickets at 10 in his eight matches in the World Cup and took multiple wickets in every game. In the West Indies he took 10 wickets at 16 apiece.
Perhaps the Mitch Starc we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. His wicket balls have always been there but it is his consistency that is improving. Utilising the extra swing of the Duke ball at pace will very much suit his game. At 25 he is in the prime of his career and looks set to explode.
The conservative approach is to pick Johnson. But being conservative is not part of the make-up of Australian cricket.
Starc should play in the first Test and we should leave the conservative decisions to the Poms.
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