When Alberto Contador’s career ends – he has suggested as soon as the end of next season – he will not only be acknowledged as the greatest cyclist of his generation, he will be in the discussion as the greatest of all time.
Since his breakthrough victory in the 2007 Tour, he has won a total of nine Grand Tours – three of each the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a Espana.
That his 2010 Tour and 2011 Giro titles were stripped for doping is not something to be dismissed when assessing his career – he has flirted with performance-enhancing controversies throughout – but heading into the Tour such issues are neither here nor there.
He comes to this race with the chance to be the reigning champion of all three Grand Tours – having won this year’s Giro and last year’s Vuelta – as well as become the first man to secure the Giro/Tour double in the same year since Marco Pantani in 1998.
He is on the verge of history, making this Tour perhaps the most important of his career.
The young Contador established himself as one of the modern peloton’s most exciting climbers, and seeing him rise out of the saddle, dancing on his peddles to power away to victory remains one of cycling’s most fearsome and beautiful sights.
But it didn’t take long for him to also make his mark as a time triallist. While he may not be in the same league as Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara or Bradley Wiggins, few who seek to win a Grand Tour’s general classification can take time from the Spaniard when he’s out on the road against the clock.
Why Contador won’t win
Winning the Giro/Tour double in the same year is a feat Contador has attempted previously, in 2011. While his Giro title was ultimately stripped, that sanction was still months away, and he entered the Tour believing the double was his for the taking.
It wasn’t.
Contador came in fifth overall, less than four minutes down on overall winner Cadel Evans. He did his best to animate the race in the mountains, but was never truly in contention.
While it shouldn’t be ignored that Contador’s 2011 Tour result was heavily influenced by a number of crashes in the first week, he heads into this year’s race again affected by injury.
During Stage 6 of this year’s Giro, Contador went down in a crash and dislocated his left shoulder. He was able to continue on and ultimately win the Maglia Rosa, but an injury of this seriousness can’t be discounted.
Cycling is obviously a sport that focuses on the legs, but climbing a mountain requires serious effort from the upper body, and Contador will want to be in top shape.
As such, rather than spending the weeks between the Giro and the Tour resting up, he will have been doing rehabilitation work on his shoulder, expending precious energy he needed to replenish ahead of his next 3000-plus kilometre odyssey through France.
‘El Pistolero’ himself couldn’t win both races in 2011, and this time around he is four years older, on the wrong side of 30, and under an injury cloud.
Alberto Contador won the Vuelta last year (Team Sky)
Why Contador will win
Contador will win this year because he’s a winner.
Heading into the penultimate stage of the 2007 Tour, Contador held a lead of around two minutes over Cadel Evans, and the Spaniard expressed his fears the Australian would easily overhaul the difference.
Contador lost a minute and a half to Evans, but maintained a 23-second gap, enough to ensure he would ride into Paris wearing the Maillot Jaune.
So many wrote Contador off that day, and he has delighted in proving us wrong ever since, often fanning the flames of our doubt by suggesting he has his own.
But the man wins. And often it’s not because he’s got the most powerful set of legs, it’s because he’s one of the savviest operators in the peloton.
It’s hard to say whether he is the most meticulous planner, or just has the best instincts, but Contador is one of the few GC contenders with the nous to take time on his rivals at any moment of every stage.
It helps that he has arguably the best road captain in the business at his service in Australia’s Michael Rogers, as well as the reigning King of the Mountains, Rafal Majka, to assist him through the Pyrenees and Alps. But if you would back anyone to win a race without a single team member, it’s Contador.
He has been a winner for a decade, and while he’s nearing the end of his carer, he proved he still is only weeks ago.
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