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2015 AFL season: The story so far (Part 2)

Roar Guru
30th June, 2015
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With the first half of the 2015 AFL season having now passed, the finals credentials of the middle six teams will be put to the test throughout the second half of the season as they jostle for their place in September.

The Adelaide Crows, Western Bulldogs, GWS Giants, Geelong Cats, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide will be looked at in this part of my mid-season review, with the top six having already been previewed in Part 1 and the bottom six to be previewed in Part 3.

Adelaide
Position: seventh (7 wins, 5 losses, 28 points, 109.1%)
Next five: Geelong Cats (Oval), West Coast Eagles (DS), Port Adelaide (Oval), Gold Coast Suns (Oval), Sydney Swans (SCG)

Given the Adelaide Crows have made the finals just once in the last five years, it’s easy to say that the club have exceeded all that has been expected of them under new coach Phil Walsh this season.

The club started the season on fire, winning their first three matches to fly to the top of the ladder, but a poor 57-point loss to the Western Bulldogs in Round 4, and a loss to Port Adelaide in the Showdown a round later, would set the precedent for a slow descent down the ladder to their current placing of seventh.

Phil Walsh’s men have been starting matches slowly in some matches this year, including in their most recent match when they trailed the Brisbane Lions for three-and-a-half quarters before storming back to eventually win by 13 points.

It came nine days after they were blown away in the final quarter by Hawthorn, having stayed with the two-time reigning premiers for the preceding three quarters thanks to the efforts of Patrick Dangerfield, whose future still remains in the balance amid speculation he could be heading to Geelong next year.

Crows fans will be hoping that, while the season is still alive, Dangerfield resists the temptation to head home and follow Rory Sloane’s lead in re-signing with the club, but that will depend on how they fare for the rest of season 2015.

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The Crows will play the Cats at home this Sunday afternoon, and that match will kick-start a tough patch for the club in which they will face the likes of the West Coast Eagles (twice), Port Adelaide, the Sydney Swans, Richmond and the Cats for a second time in the lead-up to the finals.

The form the Crows show throughout the second half of the season could play a major role in Dangerfield’s future, and if the club can achieve big things in this period, then it could be enough for him to eventually re-sign with the club.

But whether he will actually do that will be a huge burning question throughout the second half of 2015.

Western Bulldogs
Position: eighth (7 wins, 5 losses, 28 points, 104.5%)
Next five: Carlton (ES), Gold Coast Suns (CAZ), Geelong Cats (SS), Collingwood (ES), Essendon (ES)

If there’s one team that have surprised many in 2015, it’s the Western Bulldogs.

The club fell into severe turmoil following the conclusion of the 2014 season, losing their coach, captain, a former Brownlow Medallist, a club favourite who is now their assistant coach, and their CEO in the space of four months.

But under new coach Luke Beveridge, the Bulldogs appeared to have moved on from the dramatic events of the off-season, winning seven games (the same as last season), losing five and finding themselves in the eight after Round 13.

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Among the wins included those over higher-ranked sides including the West Coast Eagles (10 points in Round 1), Sydney Swans (four points in Round 5), Richmond (19 points in Round 2) and the Adelaide Crows (57 points in Round 4).

The win over the Swans was considered to be one of the upsets of the season, given where the Bulldogs were coming from and the fact that the Swans are one of the contenders for the premiership in 2015. To be fair, however, the hosts were backing up from a trip to Perth, where they had lost to Fremantle a round earlier.

Their most recent outing, a six-point win over St Kilda, marked just their second win over a Victorian club this season, but they will have the chance for more with Carlton at home to come this week.

That is followed by a trip to Cairns where they will play the struggling Gold Coast Suns in a sold home game, and then the short trip down the highway to Simonds Stadium, where they haven’t won since 2003, to face the Geelong Cats.

Having succeeded all expectations of them in 2015, it will now be interesting to see how the Western Bulldogs fare for the rest of the season. Six of their next nine games will be at Etihad Stadium, so a finals berth looms as a possibility for the talented playing list Luke Beveridge has inherited.

GWS
Position: ninth (7 wins, 5 losses, 28 points, 101%)
Next five: Richmond (MCG), St Kilda (SPO), Gold Coast Suns (MS), Geelong Cats (STO), Fremantle (DS)

As had been expected of them this season, the GWS Giants have continued to improve as they seek to reach the finals for the first time in their history, their seven wins breaking their record of six set last year.

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Included were wins over last year’s two worst-performed teams in St Kilda and Melbourne, a stunning 10-point win over reigning premiers Hawthorn at home in Round 6 and a record 78-point thrashing of Carlton at Etihad Stadium a round later.

The forward-line partnership of Jeremy Cameron and Cam McCarthy is fast becoming one of the most feared in the AFL, with the duo having kicked 64 goals between them this season.

The former, who endured an injury-ravaged 2014 season after earning All-Australian honours in 2013, sits equal third with Eddie Betts in the goalkicking with 35 majors for the year, trailing only leader Josh J Kennedy (46) and Lance Franklin (36).

But any hopes they have of reaching the finals for the first time have been sabotaged with key players Phil Davis, Joel Patfull and Shane Mumford all on the sidelines, with the latter not to return again this season due to a serious ankle injury sustained against Collingwood in Round 11.

Their absences were felt hard as the team went down by 56 points to North Melbourne in their most recent outing before their recent Round 13 bye.

It has thrown Leon Cameron’s men head-first into a challenge that they must take head-on, starting with this Saturday’s trip to the MCG to face an in-form Richmond side which has dominated their four meetings by an average of 68.25 points.

That is then followed by a pair of winnable matches against St Kilda and the Gold Coast Suns, though the latter should have their captain (and regular Giants tormentor) Gary Ablett Jr back by then.

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However, there will also be daunting trips to Adelaide and Perth to face Fremantle and Port Adelaide on either side of a home match against Essendon, and a home Sydney Derby against the Swans before the Giants wrap up their regular season campaign with another pair of winnable matches, against Carlton and Melbourne.

With the aforementioned trio of Davis, Patfull and Mumford out for lengthy periods, the big question will be who will stand up for the Giants in their absences, and whether they can still win enough matches to make the finals for the first time.

Geelong
Position: tenth (6 wins, 6 losses, 24 points, 98.4%)
Next five: Adelaide Crows (Oval), North Melbourne (ES), Western Bulldogs (SS), GWS Giants (STO), Brisbane Lions (SS)

One thing has become clear this season: the Geelong Cats are facing the end of what has been a glorious era for the club, which in the last eight years has seen the club win three premierships as well as produce two Brownlow Medallists, three Norm Smith Medallists and a large number of All-Australians.

After 13 rounds, the Cats remain outside of the eight and are currently enduring their longest period in the bottom half of the ladder since 2006, which was the most recent year the club failed to play finals.

What hasn’t helped them is an ageing playing list, and the fact that they have only been able to win at home just once this year – against the bottom-placed Gold Coast Suns – in Round 3.

Their most recent outing saw the club suffer a shock 24-point loss to Melbourne in a result that may have well and truly vindicated many experts’ beliefs that the Cats are indeed on the decline after enjoying so many years at the upper echelon of the ladder.

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But it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Chris Scott’s men this season – they have scored wins over top-eight sides such as Richmond and Collingwood as well as defeated Port Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval a week prior to the Dees debacle.

The Cats will resume their season this Sunday when they return to the Oval for the second time in four weeks, this time to play the Adelaide Crows, who have improved under first-year coach Phil Walsh after the club struggled under the weight of expectations in 2013 and 2014.

After that, their only interstate trip for the rest of the season will be to Canberra where they will play the injury-ravaged GWS Giants, who always seem to lift when they play the Cats, in Round 17.

As far as home fixtures are concerned, they will welcome the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane Lions, Sydney Swans and the Crows to Simonds Stadium, with the visit by the Swans shaping as the Cats’ biggest challenge in the run to September.

While it’s not too late for the Cats to keep alive their eight-year finals streak, it seems inevitable that the longest period of sustained success the club has enjoyed for a long time could be about to come to an end sooner rather than later.

North Melbourne
Position: eleventh (6 wins, 6 losses, 24 points, 97.3%)
Next five: Gold Coast Suns (MS), Geelong Cats (ES), Essendon (ES), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Carlton (ES)

On the back of a surprise preliminary final appearance last year, which was followed by the acquisitions of Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins from Carlton and the Western Bulldogs respectively, a lot was expected of North Melbourne in 2015.

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However, the Roos appear to be struggling under the weight of expectations, with a 77-point loss to the Adelaide Crows in the opening round putting them right on the back foot from the start.

As a result, they have yet to crack the eight this season and currently sit in eleventh position with six wins from twelve matches and with a percentage of 97.3.

Their last start before the bye, however, saw them record a much-needed 56-point win over the GWS Giants away from home. A fortnight prior to that, they ended the West Coast Eagles’ six-game winning streak with a 10-point win in Hobart.

Coach Brad Scott has returned to work after undergoing back surgery following their Round 9 loss to Collingwood, but won’t return to the coaches box until their Round 15 home game against the Geelong Cats, leaving interim coach Darren Crocker to lead the side against the Gold Coast Suns this Saturday night.

Crocker has coached the Roos to two wins from their last three games, adding to the three matches he won while he served in the same role after Dean Laidley resigned as Kangaroos coach halfway through the 2009 season.

Scott’s return will coincide with the beginning of what is expected to be a soft second half of the season as far as the draw is concerned, with only the Round 21 home game against Fremantle looming as their only genuine challenge.

That, and the final round match against Richmond at Etihad Stadium, will be the only two matches in which the Roos will have to face teams above them for the rest of the season, thus there will be no excuses for Brad Scott’s men not to make a late charge for the finals.

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As the saying goes, it’s never too late.

Port Adelaide
Position: twelfth (5 wins, 7 losses, 20 points, 97.8%)
Next five: Sydney Swans (SCG), Collingwood (Oval), Adelaide Crows (Oval), Essendon (ES), St Kilda (Oval)

Like North Melbourne, Port Adelaide also appear to be struggling under the weight of expectations in 2015, with the club also failing to crack the eight this season despite having numerous chances to do so.

At this time last year the Power were flying, sitting on top of the ladder until a mid-season Showdown loss saw them settle for fifth place at season’s end. However, twelve months on and they have quickly gone from being the hunter to the hunted.

The addition of Paddy Ryder was seen as the missing piece to the Power’s premiership puzzle, but has struggled since arriving at Alberton, missing the last four games due to injury.

And so, for the first time since becoming head coach in 2013, Ken Hinkley finds himself under pressure to lift the Power out of their dire situation. They will have the chance to revive their season when they face a Sydney Swans side which will be without Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett through suspension this Thursday night.

That is then followed by another Thursday night match, whereby they will host Collingwood in what is expected to be a sold-out Adelaide Oval, despite the poor form shown by the Power this season.

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They will then enjoy a home Showdown against the Adelaide Crows in Round 16 and then winnable home fixtures against St Kilda and the GWS Giants, among others, in the run to September.

Thus, it’s not too late for Ken Hinkley’s men to revive their finals chances but a loss to the Swans this Thursday night at the SCG, where they haven’t won since 2006, could put them further back in the finals hunt.

That’s the middle six teams’ seasons to date reviewed. Part 3 will look at the bottom six clubs: Essendon, St Kilda, Melbourne, Carlton, the Brisbane Lions and Gold Coast Suns.

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