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The first Test of the Ashes series in Cardiff is shaping up as a real last-minute call on selection in a few areas for the Australian side.
What I like about that, is that the selection dilemmas are all about which cricketer to leave out, rather than the opposite.
It certainly points to a strong squad with a lot of healthy competition for spots – a massive turn around from last time we toured the Old Dart.
Looking at our top six there are up to three spots that may well go down to the wire.
Chris Rogers
At Rogers’ age, the end of a career can come very quickly. Obviously the knock on the head in the West Indies was a lot more serious than first thought and could well have hurt him more than we know.
Assuming he has his full health back in order, he needs to score solidly in the Essex tour match to guarantee his selection and head into the first Test with his confidence back in place.
I have no doubt that he is the selectors’ favoured option, rightfully so, and he will be selected unless he plays himself out of the team. Shaun Marsh’s ‘golden boy’ status with selectors and his recent scores will have provided the selectors with all the justification they would need to make that call, if Rogers fails horribly.
Adam Voges v Shaun Marsh
The no. 5 spot in the middle order is still up for grabs. Whist Marsh could claim incumbency at the beginning of the WI series, the injury to Rogers allowed Voges the opportunity to shine, and shine he did.
For mine Voges is the answer to our middle order consistency problem. He certainly inspires confidence and has the first class record, initial Test match form and maturity to stabilise our middle order.
Marsh has has some reasonable scores to his name in both the second Windies Test and the Kent tour match, but the century Voges made in the West Indies when we were really under the pump spoke volumes of the man. He must capitalise on his opportunity against Essex though, to have any hope of ending the selectors love affair with Marsh.
Shane Watson v Mitch Marsh
I think Glenn McGrath has called it right when he was quoted as saying the selectors will give Watson the first Test.
Can Marsh change that, in the match against Essex?
It is possible however Watson would also have to fail. If memory serves Rod Marsh was the selector on duty who presided over the decision to drop Watto in the WC, only for Watson to be re-instated, turn it around and perform under immense pressure.
That pressure is set to continue with Marsh maturing and looking more and more a top six batsman. While the edge in the bowling dept goes to Watson, this should not be enough to save him.
His primary role is scoring runs. If Australia struggle, and Watson is failing with the blade I’d be predicting a mid series changing of the guard.
If Voges does secure a spot, I do wonder with his part time left arm orthodox spin, if the selectors will re consider the need for an all rounder at all. If our previously brittle batting rears its ugly head, it may be an option.
In the bowling unit, Johnson looks to have secured his spot with a solid performance in the tour match against Kent, with reports of his pace being up and stumps being rattled, the selectors won’t play around with his spot. Him being ‘rested’ for the Essex match is a pretty clear indicator for me that his spot is locked in.
Similarly Lyon has done enough to ensure his position, particularly considering Ahmed has given the selectors no reason to pick him, after mediocre returns in the tour matches he played.
Ryan Harris v Josh Hazlewood v Mitch Starc
The second and third seamers position will come down to the results of the Essex match.
While Harris got through adequate work loads against Kent, the wickets weren’t there for him or not to the level that he would have hoped.
Handling a workload alone is not going to be enough to for him to make the first Test side. Certainly Darren Lehman has indicated, and Ryno himself has acknowledged, that he needs to show form and take wickets to win his spot back off one of Starc or Hazlewood.
The team needs to be put first and unless Harris gives the selectors cause to drop one of the other two, Harris will find himself carrying the drinks. It won’t surprise me all to see Harris struggle for wickets in the Essex match and in-form young quicks Starc and Hazlewood tear Essex apart.
Actually I’d love nothing more than to see those two cut a swathe through England, confirming the quality of their last nine months and announce the arrival of the new generation in this Ashes series.
The countdown to next Wednesday is on!
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