Oh yes, its time to take my talents to a Thursday night. Sydney host the Power in this week’s Thursday night football.
I’m on a roll with Fridays (just take my word for it), so I’ve decided to give a Thursday night game a shake while we’ve got the slot available. It’s really because Cam Rose and I have another chat column in the works, and it should be ready to go for tomorrow.
But fear not! A guest will be filling in on Friday.
Before we see if changing the day improves my ability to predict, how did we go with last week’s Friday Night Forecast?
Prediction: Sydney def. Richmond by 18 points.
Actual: Sydney def. by Richmond by 18 points.
Well at least I got the final margin right hey? There’s not a lot to say about this one, other than Richmond weren’t supposed to win, and so they won. Can we all start saying Richmond are a lock for the premiership, please? Otherwise they might get on a roll…
Here’s a one-time-only (for this season, at least) Thursday Night Forecast.
Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Thursday, 2 July
Bouncedown: 7:20PM (EST)
Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney, New South Wales
This one is a little less clear cut than it appears at face value. And I’m not just saying that to get you to read the rest of my preview.
The loss of Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett is an interesting little wrinkle, given the two have been responsible for 37 per cent of the Swans’ goals, and one third of their own-boot scoring shots, to this point in the season. One thing we’ll certainly miss is the chance at another fourth quarter freak show from Franklin, as he delivered in this match-up last season.
Sam Reid, who has been plying his trade as a tall defender, and Toby Nankervis, who has been plying his trade in the twos, come in as the two-prong forward set. To say this is a downgrade is an understatement. But its not necessarily terminal – the onus just falls onto the Sydney midfield, which as I discussed last week has been an issue to this point in the year.
Alipate Carlise be like, phew.
How do Port make the most of the opportunity they’ve been presented with?
Unfortunately for the Power, it’s not that forward match up they should be worried about – it’s the other end of the ground that’s a major concern. Port have been the worst side in the competition at converting inside 50s to scores, which is oh-so-trendy in the AFL right now.
When the Swans pumped the Power by eight goals in Round 2, Port Adelaide won the inside 50 count 62-52, but hit the scoreboard just 14 times. That’s right, less than one-in-four of Port’s forward thrusts ended in scores (and just 1/10th were six pointers). ‘Abject failure’ is a phrase that comes to mind.
Why? To borrow a term from the NBA, Sydney are really good at “clogging the lane” – except the lane in footy is a 50-metre long, 90-metre wide t-shape inside the 50 metre arc. Sydney do defensive positioning as well as anyone, and it’s a key reason why they have the league’s second-best Defensive Efficiency Rating.
Here’s one example I found watching the tape of the Round 2 match up (sorry for the graininess).
Every Swan is goal side of his opponent, and they’re spaced just far enough away from their direct opponent to put doubt into the ball handler’s mind. As the ball moves back in board, Sydney form what is effectively a four player wall just inside the 50 metre arc, with a spare man floating back to cover the area in line with the ball and the goal.
Everyone else is marking a man. This play ends with a kick to the left forward wing/pocket, about 40 metres from home. Eddie kicks these for fun, but for everyone else it’s an inefficient shot.
That’s the scheme I’m looking for, and I’m not confident Port Adelaide can overcome in – despite the inclusion of Paddy Ryder for Kane Mitchell as a way of trying to stretch the Swans for height.
The lack of Franklin-Tippett means this game could end up a low scoring affair, but I think the Swans will be less low scoring than the Power, and am tipping a Sydney victory by 24 points.
That’s my Thursday Night Forecast. What’s yours?
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