Welcome to the Friday Night Forecast for Round 14.
I’ll be your host this week after Ryan wanted to try out his luck on the Thursday night forecast instead. Four misses in a row on Friday had dented his confidence on the big stage.
Three of those four matches involved my Tigers, so his frustration with them is understandable. All I can say is, welcome to my life!
We’ve got the match of the round on Friday night, both in ladder terms and the likely atmosphere. Two huge Melbourne clubs. MCG co-tenants. Fourth versus fifth on the ladder.
If they don’t get upwards of 60,000, and even push 70,000, then the supporters of both sides have let themselves down.
Hawthorn are the proven champions, having won the last two premierships. They are slowly shedding their moss like the finest of rolling stones the further into season 2015 we go.
Collingwood are the challengers who have defied most expectations so far this season, but are still dogged by doubters who have questioned the worth of their wins. They may have actually gained more admirers and credibility with their gallant loss to Fremantle last week than they did in any of their victories.
The Pies haven’t beaten the Hawks since 2011, and Alastair Clarkson’s men have absolutely piled on the goals against them in that winning run. Hawthorn’s lowest score has been 17.13.115 in these six consecutive wins, and they’ve averaged over 19 goals a game in that time.
The Hawks are still the most dominant attacking side in the competition, and their defence is ranked in the top four as well.
Collingwood are actually ranked a surprising third in attack, and are also solid in defence with only four sides having a better points against tally at this stage. But again, some will say these figures more accurately reflect a draw that has turned out to be friendly.
The Pies were able to stick with the Dockers for the entire game last week, and even headed them for large parts. The biggest chink in their armour was conceding late goals.
Nothing quite exposes a weaker side like giving up goals in time on. Against the top sides you have to be focussed and committed for 100 per cent of every minute, every quarter, the entire game.
Hawthorn loves to kick the ball. No side does it more. It stands to reason they take more marks than any other side too. They’re also ranked equal third for handballs.
The Hawks like to possess the ball. A lot. They flick it around by hand until one of their kickers is free with time and space, by which time the man with the ball usually has more than one option across the ground or up ahead.
They move the ball quickly and decisively, which enables them to get the ball forward. This is not an Essendon style of chipping sideways and backwards, waiting for the perfect option. The Hawks create the perfect option with attacking run.
As we know, Hawthorn also has multiple options in attack – they’re one of only two sides that have three players to kick 20 or more goals so far this season – along with another four in double figures. Only West Coast can match that kind of spread.
But the Hawks have to be wary of Collingwood’s own forward options. No club has more than the Pies’ eight players to hit double figures in goals in 2015. If Hawthorn doesn’t have their defensive game sharp, Collingwood can be a team to expose them.
The Hawks have won these match-ups in the past by spreading the Pies beyond breaking point across the ground, creating the loose player, and putting the ball to the advantage of their dangerous forwards with favourable match-ups.
This is a better Collingwood outfit than we’ve seen over the past couple of seasons though, and Hawthorn will do well to be wary of them.
I’m predicting a high possession, high scoring game, with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Ryan Sidebottom, Jordan Lewis, Luke Hodge and Isaac Smith all nudging 30 touches, and a few players on either side kicking multiple goals.
I can see the Hawks finishing at around 110-120 points, and the Pies 85-90, with Hawthorn to prevail by four to six goals.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?
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