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“Hope is not a strategy”.
It’s uncertain who said it first. Some say Vince Lombardi, but it’s hard to find any evidence. Some say Rudy Giuliani, but there is at least plenty of evidence of it being said before he used it.
Barack Obama has definitely said it. And plenty of people attribute it to movie director James Cameron.
Whoever said it, it seems that Wallaby coach Michael Cheika has adopted it as the Wallabies’ mantra for the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Certainly his picks for the Rugby Championship squad show that as far as he is concerned the only thing that counts this year is form – and his strategy is one of action.
Coaching is mostly overrated. That’s not to say it isn’t important, but for the most part, coaches are over-praised for success, and over-criticised for failure. But one part of the game where they can genuinely make a big difference is selections.
Getting the best 15 uninjured players out on the field in a balanced formation which is appropriate for the match and the opposition, and which creates some uncertainty for the opposition, seems easy, but in reality is often undermined by fear, loyalty and hope.
Michael Cheika doesn’t appear to feel any of those emotions, and it shows. There are no sacred cows here. Cheika is fearless in his selections, picking who he wants, when he wants, regardless of opinions. He got Kurtley Beale for a Spring Tour in the face of heavy pressure from just about everybody, and for the most part he got his men again yesterday.
One of the things of which Cheika is acutely aware is the need to foster uncertainty in the opposition. It is this philosophy that has ended the Test careers of Ben Alexander, Benn Robinson and Nick Cummins, all of whom have been noble servants, but are simply too familiar and easily decoded at Test level.
Also for Alexander and Robinson, the game has changed around them and left them obsolete. A huge feature of this year’s Rugby World Cup will be power scrummaging. The era of the small and mobile prop is over, especially for those tarred with the brush of Australia’s mostly weak scrummaging history.
Winger Cummins is a wonderful character and a heart-on-the-sleeve player, the type of everyman we always want to see in Wallaby gold, but he is unnecessarily direct which makes him easy to defend against, and he is without the raw pace of Joe Tomane, or the bulldozing weight of Taqele Naiyaravoro.
Karmichael Hunt just hasn’t really done much. As an accomplished Test and State of Origin league player, he is the type of player who most often benefits from hope. After all, what else but hope could have had him picked at 10 for the Reds in the first game of a Super Rugby season when he’d never played there in rugby before.
But Cheika is immune to the charms of player’s yesteryears, and if he’s not delivering now, then there is no place. Incidentally the charm of yesteryear was also off the table for James O’Connor, who must now be wondering about the wisdom of his move to the poorly coached and desperate Reds.
If we’re talking about the need to breed uncertainty in the opposition, then how does that sit with the selections of the relative old-stagers, Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell? The fact is that Giteau and Mitchell are top performers at the peak of their game, but not only that, they bring European experience and a fresh approach for the likes of New Zealand and South Africa who haven’t seen them for a while.
Mitchell’s championship-winning try for Toulon might have been aided by some so-so tackling, but it showed that his trademark balance in contact, agility and strength are still as good as ever. As for Giteau, it is his maturity and confidence that actually enable Cheika to be brave in other selections. One can afford to throw Samu Kerevi into a Test backline alongside Giteau, but perhaps not alongside, say, Matt Toomua.
There has been less scope for Cheika to be brave and radical with his back five in the pack. Sam Carter’s injury has undoubtedly meant that James Horwill stays in the frame for a little longer, but in reality, Horwill’s season has been dire and he will be one of the first to be cut.
Dean Mumm’s inclusion has created plenty of debate. The word around Tahland is that the recent captain of the Exeter Chiefs has added plenty of leadership to the Waratahs camp. Clearly that’s valuable in a World Cup year, but there’s not exactly a leadership vacuum in that squad.
One thing is for sure, Cheika doesn’t play politics, so there’s a reason Mumm is in there, even if it isn’t immediately apparent to us mere mortals. Lineout intelligence is a very likely reason, particularly since Mumm has faced most of the England and Wales jumpers and those two games are critical to the Wallabies progressing from their pool.
At number 8, there is a dearth of real choice. Cliffy Palu is too injured, Ben McCalman too light and Scott Higginbotham too loose. Ita Vaea is unlucky not to be given a crack given his recent form, although he does have that uncomfortably chunky look of a player who is a way off peak fitness.
Higginbotham is the pick of the three and the best foil for a likely number 6 and 7 combo of Scott Fardy and Dave Pocock, but given George Smith has been a standout at number 8 for his club side Lyon in the Top 14, it is a shame not to see him in action early in the Rugby Championship. Word is that he will feature at the World Cup and it would be staggering to think otherwise. Test teams fear Smith and he fills the Cheika criteria of creating uncertainty in the opposition.
A few other random comments – Luke Jones unlucky, but perhaps lacking the sheer size and experience needed. Lopeti Timani’s form has been patchy for sure, but for mine he has the look of the big game player and we need hard men, so it’s a little surprising that he’s not there.
Paul Alo-Emile is desperately unlucky to be injured and so are the Wallabies that he is, but the flipside of dejection is elation, and Greg Holmes must have been stoked to be included. He deserves it of course, having been in fantastic form in an oft-beaten Reds team.
Despite a few curious selections, the squad largely has what we all crave at selection time, and yet rarely receive – a team of form players and some pleasant surprises.
It’s a squad that has a few weaknesses, not a few strengths and at its heart has cast aside that desperate predictability of recent years. It has spice and freshness and there’s a sense that the caps, when they are finally handed out, will have been earned.
It’s a squad picked without fear, loyalty or hope. Australian fans can’t ask for more than that.