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After all the banter, the mind-games, the parochial ‘journalism’ and, of course, the first two games of the series, it’s come down to this: a deciding game in Brisbane that will determine the winner of the 2015 State of Origin series.
Rugby league doesn’t get much bigger than this.
Sure, some will argue that the opening game in Sydney wasn’t high-quality football, or that the whole Origin concept has become a circus and is sometimes contrived.
There is more than a little truth to both sentiments. However, that doesn’t detract from the fact that it’s one of the biggest sporting events in Australia, and that we’ll all be watching tomorrow night.
OK, not ‘all’, but I would suspect anyone reading this article will be.
So, will Queensland win, rendering last year’s loss little more than an aberration for their current crop of stars? Or will NSW proudly be singing “two in a row” at the end of 80 minutes of footy on Wednesday night?
The following is a guide to how both teams can win or lose what is sure to be a captivating game of rugby league.
NSW will win if
Mitchell Pearce maintains his series performances thus far.
It’s probably not a popular opinion, as Pearce is not a popular player, but he’s been fantastic in this series. That’s just fact, and it’s silly to suggest otherwise.
If you eliminate the final 10 minutes of the opening game – in which he didn’t even play that bad, he just didn’t deliver as a halfback should – Pearce has probably been one of the best players from either team across the first two games.
Now he heads to Brisbane looking to play good football for a third consecutive game for NSW. If he can deliver, it won’t eliminate the memories of all his past failures at this level, but it will certainly go a long way to helping the Blues win the series.
Pearce was never as great as some admirers viewed him, but he was never as bad as detractors perceived him to be either. Though I have been a vocal critic of his in the past, when he plays with poise and takes on the line, he is a very good half.
He now needs to build on his efforts in Sydney and Melbourne. He needs to be assertive, be precise with his kicking game, challenge the defensive line with the ball in his hands, bark orders to his teammates and direct the team around the park, all while playing with confidence.
If he does, the Blues will win, because the halves are the only area on the field that the Maroons can lay claim to having an advantage over NSW. If that is negated via a sublime Pearce performance, the 2015 State of Origin series will be won by NSW.
NSW will lose if
There is even a touch of nerves.
If the Blues are nervous, tentative or lacking confidence, then the occasion, the pressure, the Queensland crowd, and the experienced Maroons line-up will see them eaten alive.
The deciding match of a State of Origin series, in front of 50,000 screaming Queenslanders at Suncorp Stadium, is no place to be timid. If NSW are, it’s going to be a long, painful night; the Maroons will smell blood and pounce. It’s simply what will happen. The crowd will go crazy, get inside the Blues’ heads, and then the Queensland players themselves will pick them apart.
Cooper Cronk will methodically test their nerves with pinpoint accurate kicks. Sam Thaiday will rattle their ribs and their confidence. Johnathan Thurston will slip through their sweaty hands. Greg Inglis will run right over the top of them. Cameron Smith will milk penalties all night long.
Trent Hodkinson has stated that Suncorp holds no fear for the Blues, and NSW’s victory there last year is evidence that it may be true. But if that is merely lip service from the Blues halfback, and NSW are able to be intimidated or over-awed, then the game will be over by halftime.
Queensland will win if
Greg Inglis is unleashed.
I bow to no one in my admiration for Billy Slater. He’s a wonderful fullback, and can have such a high level of impact on the game in both attack and defence.
When his team has the ball, his support play is tremendous, and he can produce something magical that can win a game. In defence, his communication is second-to-none, and the ground he covers is quite extraordinary.
However, even at his best, he’s not as damaging or explosive as Greg Inglis can be. Again, that’s no knock on Slater, but rather an awareness of GI’s different body shape, and the fact he can hurt you in different ways.
Queensland have been very lucky to have both players in their team for many years, and Inglis’ versatility means he can slot in at centre, making the Maroons extremely potent. However Slater’s injury gives Inglis a chance to play fullback, and it’s not so much that he’s a better number 1 than Slater, it’s just that he’s a different number 1.
The Blues will have to be extremely careful with their kicking game, and ensure they don’t provide Inglis with opportunities to terrorise them in broken play with kick returns against out-of-position NSW players.
In fact, they’d be well served letting Queensland’s wingers return any and all kicks.
NSW will also need to watch Inglis running off Thurston or Cronk close to their line, because his size, strength and speed running onto the ball can be almost impossible to stop.
Inglis played very well in Game 2, yet still with somewhat limited opportunities. If he can replicate that performance from the back in Game 3 – with even more touches – Queensland will win the game.
Queensland will lose if
They think the return of Cronk, and playing at Suncorp, guarantee them victory.
Queensland won’t be complacent, but they can’t afford to assume that just because their first-choice number 7 is back, and that they’re at home, that they’ll win.
The Maroons need to be cognisant that this NSW team is better than most people expected. That Cronk is playing his first game back from injury after a significant layoff. That home-field advantage means nothing, if the opposition – and more importantly, the referees – aren’t intimidated by it.
So apart from an overarching game-plan that the Maroons should enter the match with, there are a number of smaller aspects of the game that the Queensland coaching staff should have looked at, in order to provide them with a winning edge.
I’ll call them ‘micro-strategies’, and they should include plans like getting inside David Klemmer’s head.
Though Klemmer was a wrecking ball in Origin 2, the fiery Bulldog’s attitude could just as easily be a negative for the Blues. Giving away penalties, or even being sent to the bin, certainly won’t help NSW. Klemmer treads a fine line, and he can undoubtedly be needled into crossing it by some clever Queensland tactics.
This is just one example of a micro-strategy that the Queensland coaching hierarchy should be asking their players to execute, because they should be leaving no stone unturned in attempting to win this match.
If Queensland haven’t considered these types of little micro-strategies, they may regret it after they’ve lost.